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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 15: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 12/12/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 15 Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders

Don't listen to what anybody tells you. Betting on the NFL is easy. Making a profit long-term, however, is not. Less than 1% of anyone who has ever placed at least one sports bet in their lifetime is currently in the green.

That fraction is even smaller when you talk about the NFL, because, as you know, there are so many variables. If the teams are playing outside, you have the weather to handicap. You want to get ahead of the betting line in hopes of a bit of positive expected value. However, when you bet that early, you need to know the injury situation. Teams look decent or better after a terrible loss, and if a side you like has been winning big, they could get complacent, and the market has overvalued them to begin with. Then comes the public money to make your pick unplayable. Now, you're considering taking the other team, because they're on the right side of a key number.

What about the refs? They're always consistent, right? This year, in particular, has been wild for kickers. They're making them from longer than ever but missing more chip shots than I can remember.

This is a lot to overcome. However, what if I told you that you don't need to overcome it to win? By using Stanford Wong's basic strategy to tease games, you're letting the market work for you. You don't want to get out ahead of the number. That sometimes works, especially with look-ahead lines.

For this strategy, it's best to tease games as close to kickoff as possible because you want to place your wager when the market is the most efficient. You want all of those things like weather and injuries built into the line before you bet it.

Let the parity of the league work for us instead of against us.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a parlay wager where the bettor manipulates the line in their favor. In return, the sportsbooks will adjust your payout. If you use this basic strategy, however, you'll be placing a strong bet almost every week.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy is simply to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The most advantageous way to do that is with a two-leg, 6-point teaser. A key number signifies a highly common point differential in the NFL. The most common margin of victory is 3, followed by 7, then 6 and 4.

The range of 1-7 or 2-8 points each represents roughly 25% of all margins of victory in the league.

We have the option to tease underdogs and betting favorites. To tease a dog using the basic strategy, we look for teams with odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5). We refer to this as teasing them up through those key numbers to big dogs of (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Inversely, if we want to tease a betting favorite down, we look for teams with odds over a touchdown in the range of (-7.5) to (-8.5). After the tease, we have them under a field goal at (-1.5) to (-2.5).

Potential Week 15 Teaser Games

Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints (+7.5) Total: 43

The Commanders travel down to ‘Nawlins this week to take on the Saints. Derek Carr is out for the year, and we still don’t know if it will be Jake Haener or rookie Spencer Rattler under center for the Saints on Sunday.

They're also without Taysom Hill, the real X-factor for this team. This is a perfect example of a great game to tease for a couple of reasons. I love Washington to win, but with the spread over a touchdown on the road, no thanks. We're also getting a low point total of 43. The lower the point total, the farther your 6 points go.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) Total: 43

In this matchup, we're getting another low point total. That's always a good start, and this time, we would be teasing an underdog up. Carolina will probably run the ball all over the Cowboys. After that Leon Lett-like loss just days ago, I worry about the state of a locker room that was already in shambles back in early October.

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (-2.5) Total: 54.5

Undoubtedly the game of the week and maybe the year so far, it’s tempting to back the Buffalo Bills here. Jared Goff is much better inside the dome, while Josh Allen and the Bills have that high-toe snow scamper down to a science.

It won’t help them here, and this high point total isn’t helping us.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Chargers (+2.5) Total: 45.5

Thankfully, we get to see this matchup in primetime on Sunday night. It's a good one. The line opened at 2.5 and got up at 3 for a while until it dropped back down. If this gets back up to 3, I don't recommend using it as it's outside the basic strategy.

We don't start from or go to a key number; we go through it.

I favor the Packers in this spot, but the pros are split. And with the Seahawks’ firepower on offense, we could see this one play out very close.

Week 15 Basic Strategy Teaser Prediction

I love the Commander leg the most here and don't mind the Bills. Detroit is always live for that blowout, though, more so than the Pack. More importantly, the point spread for the Seattle game is 9 points lower. Let the market do the work for us.

Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) and Washington Commanders (-1.5): -120

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