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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 12: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 11/21/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 12 Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins

As we enter Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, point spreads are becoming harder and harder to bet successfully. We don't quite know which teams may be tanking games on purpose. That's because there are a lot of bad teams.

It's usually only about 1-3 NFL teams at the very bottom of the league. Who would those teams be this year? Well, we have five teams with two losses and four with three losses. I would keep a close eye on these teams over the next few weeks to hopefully get ahead of the tank fades.

Point spreads are sharper at this point in the season. It’s hard to get ahead of them unless you’re betting lookahead lines. There is a way we can let the market work for us. You may have heard of a teaser bet.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a parlay, and you may be thinking parlays aren't the best idea to make money in the long term. You're not wrong. However, if you are disciplined and use a basic strategy for your teaser, you can make money in the long term.

Think of teasing as adding points to the spread, and in return, as you might have guessed, the sportsbooks will lower your potential payout.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy to win long-term money with teaser bets is simply to tease through the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. A key number means that a high percentage of NFL games end with that exact margin of victory. The most occurring key number is 3 followed by 7 and then 6.

You can add more than 6 points for a teaser bet, but it doesn't fall within this basic strategy. Use only two-leg 6-point teasers.

If we want to tease an underdog up, we look for teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5), and after giving them 6 points through those key numbers, you have dogs of (+7.5) to (+8.5), Inversely, to tease a betting favorite down, we find teams with odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5). After the 6 points, we have small favorites under a field goal of just (-1.5) to (-2.5). 

Potential Week 12 NFL Teaser Games

Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) Total: 50

I'm seeing a lot of people taking the Colts here at (+7.5). They saw Anthony Richardson play one good game, and all of a sudden, he doesn't stink. His last performance was the best of his career, but that isn't saying much.

I like the Colts here at (+7.5), but the Lions are awfully good against the spread this year. This game has the highest point total of any of our options this week, meaning our 6 points mean less than they would with a lower total. You don't have to pick the games with the lowest total, but it's a good suggestion.

New England Patriots (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins (-7.5) Total: 46

This one just recently moved up to (-7.5) for Miami, so we have the option of teasing it. The total isn’t really low or high. I really like Miami here. They are playing hard and have been since the return of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphin defense has really stepped up as well. Their pass rush against the Rams was outstanding, and I think they can put Drake Maye on his backside several times this Sunday.

The rookie QB has looked good this year, but can we get him some weapons? The offensive targets on both sides are hardly comparable.

Tennessee Titans (+8) at Houston Texans (-8) Total: 40.5

Like the Colts this week, a lot of sharp minds like the Tennessee Titans at (+8). It is about that time that these large point spreads take a hit. That said, it's hard not to like Houston here to win (-2). Will Anderson will be back on defense, and the timing between Nico Collins and quarterback C.J. Stroud should return to normal.

San Francisco 49ers (+2) at Green Bay Packers (-2) Total: 47.5

Finally, we have the opportunity to tease a betting underdog up through those key numbers. A lot of people's favorite underdog of the week, the 49ers, are in desperate need of a win. I like this spot for them, especially against the Pack. Green Bay needed a 4th quarter shutout and comeback win to beat the dreadful Chicago Bears. Not only was it a disappointing performance, but it was also an emotional division win on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at LA Rams (+2.5) Total: 49

The most perplexing betting line of the week annoyed the heck out of me when I had to pick this game straight up because the spot is great for LA and bad for Philly. However, the line is super for Eagles backers and crap if you like LA.

This is the perfect example of a game you should tease instead of playing straight up.

NFL Week 12 Teaser Pick

LA Rams (+8.5) and San Francisco 49ers (+8): -120

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