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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 11: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 11/12/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 11 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

It's now Week 11 of the 2024 NFL Regular Season, and I can't speak for anyone else, but this has always been the hardest time of the year to win betting sides or totals against the spread. We know who the best teams are at this point. However, there are still teams like the Miami Dolphins fighting for their season, who surprised a lot of people with their performance this past Monday night.

We still have 18 teams with a 30% or better chance of making the postseason, and that doesn't even include those Dolphins or the Rams or Seahawks, whose offenses can keep up with anybody on their best day.

It’s also a bit too early to start fading teams we think are tanking games on purpose. The bottom of the league is crowded at the moment.

I’m not telling you this to ruin your day or make you hesitant. If you have done your homework and you like a bet on a side or total at (-110) or perhaps you found better value on the moneyline, then pull the trigger.

Maybe you win, maybe you lose. Either way, you were playing a number the sportsbooks wanted you to play. Sure, they gamble as well, but as long as they get roughly even money on both sides of a game, they're making money.

You do have the option to tease games, though, and this is letting the market do the work for you.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay. Instead of just taking two NFL sides at (-110) each to pay out at (+264), you’re adding 6 points to each spread or total of your choosing. In turn, your payout is lowered to (-120). You don’t have to tease only two teams or use just 6 points per leg. It’s easy to get carried away with teasers, though. Sticking to a basic strategy is the key.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy to tease NFL games is simple. Limit your bets to two legs and use 6-point teasers. The strategy is very simple. You want to tease through the key numbers of 3,4, 6, and 7. A key number simply means the most likely margin of victory in an NFL game. The key number of 3 is the most significant, as you might know. The point differential range we will be playing accounts for 25% of all NFL margins of victory.

If we want to tease an underdog up, we look for teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5). After giving them 6 points, they’re now both above a touchdown at (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Teasing a betting favorite down is just as easy. We look for odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5), and after giving them 6 points, we have favorites under a field goal of (-1.5) to (-2.5).

Potential NFL Week 11 Teaser Games

Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins (-7.5) Total: 44.5

These feel like two teams headed in opposite directions. However, the Raiders have just one fewer win than Miami. Vegas is also coming off of a bye week. Maybe we pass on teasing the Dolphins down.

Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Denver Broncos (-2) Total: 44

This is probably the most surprising betting line of the week. It feels like an overreaction to Denver nearly winning in Kansas City and the Falcons losing to the Saints. I do like Denver, especially at home as the season progresses. The weather will worsen, and their rookie QB only gains experience.

Low point totals are good for teasers because the 6 points count for more. We have a low one in this game, but let’s see what else is out there.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) Total: 45.5

Do we blindly bet the Chiefs in this spot? They're fine playing outside, and Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is as good as it gets. I can see KC losing their first game of the season this week, but losing by 9 points is highly unlikely. The odds on an alternate point spread of (+8.5) for the Chiefs is currently at (-322), which has an implied probability of 76%.

I don’t like the spot for them, though, especially coming off that field goal block win on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at LA Chargers (-1.5) Total: 47

The Cincinnati Bengals came so close last week against the Ravens. You have to wonder what they will have left traveling to the West Coast to play the Chargers on Sunday night. This is a top-five offense versus a top-three defense.

The Chargers’ biggest win this year came against the Broncos, so Joe Burrow might not be a bad bet to keep the final score within a touchdown.

Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) Total: 42

How can you not tease the Texans down here against the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys? They’ll be angry after a close loss and much healthier on both sides of the ball with the likely returns of Will Anderson and Nico Collins.

NFL Week 11 Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

Houston Texans (-1.5) and Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5): -120

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