Best Bets for the Worst NFL Teams for the Coming Season

by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

Best bets for worst NFL teams Daniel Jones NY Giants

Summer is the time of unbridled optimism in the NFL. Every team and its fan base have the confidence of achievable goals for the upcoming season.

The cold, cruel reality of fall and winter haven’t yet crushed the souls of players, coaches, fans or bettors.

It has been 22 years since the NFL adopted its current 32-team, eight-division format. Last year the 2-15 Carolina Panthers became the 46th team since the start of 2002 to win three or fewer games in an NFL season. Arizona, Washington and New England all joined the Panthers as the only teams to win four games or fewer, running that number to 102 over that 22-year period.

That means that over more than two decades, an average of two teams per season manage only three or fewer wins. And an average of five teams a year are headed for four W’s or fewer.

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Those numbers have been consistent across the last two decades. Only five times in the last 22 seasons has there been an NFL season in which one team failed to win four games or more. And only twice (2004, 2019,) have there been fewer than four teams that failed to get a fifth victory in a given campaign.

Now, things are different now that we have a 17th game. So, 22 years from now, the numbers are going to be divergent from the previous 22 years. However, this historical data is useful for creating a baseline expectations for the bottom tier of teams in the league.

And it means we should expect four or five teams to completely suck this season.

Interestingly, there is currently only one team, New England (4.5), whose Las Vegas NFL season win total is posted around that 4.0 number. Since we know that they aren’t going to be the only bottom feeder this year, that means there is value in being able to tab the other teams that will join them in the league’s basement.

Last year my list included three of the four teams that ended up winning four games or fewer. (My miss was the Patriots, as I overestimated Billy B.) This year there are seven teams making a repeat appearance on my list of teams most likely to bottom out. Those seven teams combined to go 1-6 against their Las Vegas season win total so I was correct that they were each going to be worse than people thought.

Will those seven teams be that bad again?

(And for those wondering, the Chargers, Saints and Broncos are the three newbies on the list.)

Here is a look at the teams that I think are most likely to win four games or less during the 2023 NFL season:

New England Patriots (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 4.5)

Let’s start with the most obvious team to fall in the tank. The Patriots were terrible last year, leading to the eventual ouster of Bill Belichick. Now they enter the 2024 campaign with new coaches, new systems, a shiny new rookie quarterback, and a whole lotta question marks.

The Pats may be a little more competitive than people expect. But they are in a stacked division and face a brutal schedule and are likely just starting to push the boulder back up the hill on this rebuild.

Denver Broncos (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 5.5)

You wouldn’t expect Sean Payton to stay down for long. His track record of success and .620 career winning percentage kind of speak for themselves. He also coaxed eight wins out of a 2023 Broncos group that won just five the year prior.

But it looks like Payton might just be dumb enough to start a rookie quarterback. And if that is the case, then all bets are off on a team that is clearly using this season as a gap year.

Carolina Panthers (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 5.5)

Carolina was the worst team in the NFL last year, and there isn’t a lot holding them back from retaining their title. Let’s put it this way: what have you seen from this franchise – now on its seventh head coach since the start of 2018 – to make you expect anything but ineptitude?

N.Y. Giants (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 6.5)

Over the last 11 years, the Giants have had just two winning seasons, and both were flukes. They have won just four games twice in the last four years, and they have finished No. 29 or worse in total offense and scoring three times in four seasons, including in 2023.

We still don’t know if Daniel Jones can be a decent NFL quarterback, and we don’t know if Brian Daboll can be a decent head coach. The roster is peppered with good, young talent. But there is a lot of dynamite strapped to this team’s chest.

Tennessee Titans (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 6.5)

It’s been a decade since the Titans were among the bottom of the NFL trash bin. They went 2-14 in 2014 and 3-13 in 2015 before setting off on a run of six straight winning season. Say what you want about Mike Vrabel, but his teams always seemed to overachieve and he was an excellent underdog coach.

Now Tennessee is closing its eyes and hoping that Brian Callahan and Will Levis can surpass their modest expectations and that an injury-prone, aging wide receiver corps can make enough big plays to keep everyone’s attention away from how bad the defense is. Not a recipe for success.

Las Vegas Raiders (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 6.5)

I mean, it’s the Raiders. You have to expect them to be huge losers and then be surprised if anything else happened. The Raiders have had just two winning seasons in 21 years. Comparatively, they have won four games or fewer a whopping eight times over that same span.

The Raiders are another team with a rookie head coach and question marks at the quarterback position. That’s always a winning combination.

Washington Commanders (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 6.5)

Believe it or not, at -189, Washington had the worst point differential in the league last season, even worse than Carolina. They won four or fewer games for the second time in five years and the fourth time in the past 11 seasons.

The good news is that Daniel Snyder is gone. The bad news is that it is still going to take a few years to undo a lot of damage that Snyder did to this franchise. They have a new coach and a rookie quarterback and, well, at this point, I feel like I’m just repeating myself.

Arizona Cardinals (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number 7.5)

Last year I said I would be stunned if the Cardinals won more than four games. And I was right. This year I feel extremely confident predicting that Arizona won’t finish with four or fewer victories for a third straight year.

Jonathan Gannon looks like he knows what he’s doing. Now the Cards just need Kyler Murray to finally stay healthy and to play anything like the guy he flashed in 2020 and 2021. I think that their 7.5 season win total is overly optimistic. But they shouldn’t be among the league’s worst again this season.

New Orleans Saints (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 7.5)

The Saints made their way onto this list for one reason: Dennis Allen. He is obviously a Peter Principle guy that is perfectly fine as a defensive coordinator but a loser as a head coach. He has a 24-46 career record and just one winning season in five tries.

For the last seven years, the Saints have had one of the best rosters in the NFC. Free agency, age, injury, some draft misses and salary cap woes have slowly drained the depth and high-end talent from this squad. They still probably have enough skill to avoid the cellar – and Derek Carr is going to get blamed no matter what – but I don’t trust Allen NOT to drive the bus over a cliff.

Minnesota Vikings (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 7.5)

Apparently Kirk Cousins is only worth one win on the number because last July the Vikings were sitting at 8.5. Now they head into camp with the pitiable duo of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy and an offensive roster that is aging and expensive.

The Vikings have been outscored by their opposition for four straight years. They have been big-time statistical overachievers, including winning 13 games in 2022, and they look like the worst team in an improving division. The defense will make strides. But they were No. 22 in scoring last year – and that was with Cousins.

Los Angeles Chargers (2024 NFL Season Win Total Number: 8.5)

I get it. This team is a longshot to completely crater. Jim Harbaugh has come to town, and all that guy has done as a head coach is win anywhere he has ever been. Harbaugh took Jim Tomsula’s 6-10 49ers and turned them into a 13-3 juggernaut in his first NFL head coaching gig. Give Harbaugh a stud signal caller like Justin Herbert, and expectations are high in L.A.

The Chargers do have some issues, though. They could have as many as eight rookies on their two-deep. Herbert’s arsenal of weapons is the worst in the NFL. Their defense is soft and shaky and the Chargers are learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. This might not be such a quick fix.

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