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Analytics and College Basketball Betting: the Numbers Sometimes Lie

by Joey House - 3/8/2024

Analytics and college basketball betting Micah Parrish San Diego State Aztecs

I've always been a numbers guy. If you've ever seen the movie "Fever Pitch" starring Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore, Drew's character Lindsey Meeks is a business consultant who deals with numbers and statistics. She asked a group of kids that she was talking to during a school trip "Are any of you in the habit of looking at numbers... rearranging them in your head to make more interesting patterns?" and one of the kids replied, "Oh, my God, she knows my secret shame." I was that kid growing up.

As a young lad growing up in the 80s, well before the Internet, my local Sunday paper always had the yearly stats for whatever sport was in season, and I would pour over them, tracking who was hot and who was not. When I was in high school, I ran a fantasy league in which I simulated the game on my computer and then gave everyone the results.

When the movie "Moneyball" came out, I thought I had died and gone to heaven. I had been a disciple of Bill James for quite some time and felt like my opinions were finally being validated by Hollywood.

I've been a stats and analytics-heavy handicapper for a long time and have had solid results. Decades ago, this served me quite well when many other handicappers would just use their knowledge and "gut-feeling" when recommending plays.

But what happens when the numbers don't tell the whole story? Any player or coach will tell you they don't play the game on paper. Those of you who watched Penn State's football team in the second half of this past season know what I'm referring to. The Nittany Lions were ranked by many computers as a top-10 team, but the on-the-field product was not the same team that computers had projected.

With March Madness in the beginning stages, as some conference tournaments starting, it's critical to know which teams' numbers may not be telling the whole story.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Wisconsin Badgers: 18-12 SU 11-17-1 ATS 18-11 O/U

Kenpom: 22 Haslametrics: 32

Wisconsin fans will be the first to tell you that the Badgers are far from the 22nd-best team in the country, or even the 32nd. There is a large "Gard's Gotta Go" contingent. And if they don't make a deep run, or miss the tournament entirely, they may finally get their wish to see Gard relieved of his duties.

However, that's just winning and losing games. People backing the Badgers against the spread might as well rip their tickets up as soon as they collect them. They have failed to cover in eight straight and 11 of their last 12 contests. This season, they have yet to cover after a loss (0-9-1 ATS) or as an away favorite (0-6-0 ATS). After their regular season ends on Sunday, you won't have to worry about the first trend, and the second one would only apply if they made the NIT. However, their 7-12-1 ATS record as a favorite is one trend to be cognizant of and an excellent reason to fade the Badgers come the post-season.

Kansas Jayhawks: 22-8 SU 13-16-1 ATS 14-15-1 O/U

Kenpom: 17 Haslemetrics: 17

With apologies to Jayhawks fans, this team had issues before their star guard, Kevin McCullar, was injured. While they split the two games that he missed, they were clearly not the same team. Like most college teams this season, Kansas has struggled away from Allen Fieldhouse, going 3-6 SU and ATS when taking to the road. While they did have some impressive neutral-site victories (Kentucky and Tennessee), that was at the beginning of the season when the Jayhawks were full strength.\

Because this is not the typical dominant Kansas team, there are some alarming trends from a bettor's viewpoint. First is a money-burning 11-14-1 ATS mark as a favorite, which they most likely will be through most of the Big 12 tourney and at least the opening weekend of the Big Dance. Even worse is the 7-13-1 ATS record following a Jayhawk victory. Finally, in their most recent victory, McCullar "re-tweaked" his knee injury and the Jayhawk's head coach Bill Self said that he likely won't be 100% for the rest of the season. Bettors beware if they decide to back Kansas.

San Diego State Aztecs: 22-8 SU 12-16 ATS 13-15-1 O/U

Kenpom: 20 Haslemetrics: 35

San Diego State seemed to be suffering from the "Super Bowl Hangover", the phenomenon of the loser of the previous Super Bowl struggling against the spread the following season. While the Aztecs won and covered their season opener against Cal-State Fullerton, they went 1-8 ATS over their next ten games (they played an NAIA school that had no Vegas line).

SDSU plays solid defense, ranking 35th in the nation in field goals allowed per game (23.1) and 18th in 3-point percentage (30.2%). What's worrisome with them is the fact they have not been able to win more than two games in a row, either SU or ATS, since their 7-game winning streak ended on January 9. They were unbeatable at home, posting a perfect 14-0 SU and an 8-4 ATS mark. However, the road troubles plague the Aztecs as well, with a 5-8 SU and 3-10 ATS away from home. They have one game remaining in the regular season, before traveling to Las Vegas for the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Considered a lock to make the tournament by many of the talking heads, there are a few areas of concern to make betting on the Aztecs a scary proposition.

Houston Cougars: 27-3 13-15-2 ATS 13-17 O/U

Kenpom: 1 Haslemetrics: 1

Houston is the epitome of winning teams that don't always cash tickets. In the last 10 years, there have only been two teams that have won the National Championship with a losing ATS record: 2021-22 Kansas (14-16-1) and 2015-16 Villanova (14-15-1). They finish the regular season on Saturday by hosting Kansas and then their first game in the Big 12 tourney will be on Wednesday. Unfortunately for Houston, this season when they have had 2-3 days off, they are 3-9-1 ATS.

Despite the Cougars' impressive streak of eight consecutive victories and winning 13 out of their last 14 contests, their Against The Spread (ATS) record over that stretch of games tells a different story, standing at a disappointing 5-8-1, with three consecutive non-covering wins. Houston boasts the nation's top defense, allowing a mere 57.3 points per game, yet their offense, averaging 74.1 points per game, is just slightly above average. It's worth noting that these statistics and their non-conference 7-5-1 ATS mark were predominantly amassed against a very weak slate of teams. Within the Big 12, they have the 7th-best scoring offense at 72.8 ppg and their league-leading defense allows 63.3 points a game.

Houston looks primed to make a very deep run in the NCAA Tournament and as such, savvy bettors can profit from the fact that they are 11-13-2 ATS off a win and haven't covered more than two games in a row since they did so at the beginning of the new year. Because they're sure to be a popular team among the squares, and Mattress Mack, who has already bet $1 million on them to win it all at +750, almost any game feels like a non-covering win.

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