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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (12th Edition)

by Joey House - 11/30/2023

Public action football betting report Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals

Welcome to the Public Action Report, where we track reverse line movements and try to find hidden value from conflicting betting patterns. Due to the abbreviated college schedule, we included any reverse line movements that met our criteria. If we have some new readers to the series, here is a brief explanation of what "reverse line movement" consists of.

Typically, when the action is one-sided in a game, we expect the odds for the favored team to get less attractive. Sometimes, we will see games when most of the bets are on one team, yet the odds move to make that team more attractive.

This is known as a "reverse line movement" and usually indicates that the "sharp" or professional handicappers well-respected by the sports books are opposite the side of the public. Valuable information can be gleaned from observing betting patterns and following where the money goes.

I wondered if the smaller college conference playoff slate would produce any games that qualified for the PAR. Sure enough, two college games and two professional ones to make the grade.

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COLLEGE

MAC Championship

Miami, Oh vs. Toledo (-8/43.5) Sat. noon ESPN

The Mid-American Conference is no stranger to our weekly PAR articles. It's only fitting that their championship game has some reverse-line action. These two teams met during the regular season, with Toledo winning a close 21-17 game. The betting public undoubtedly remembered that, bringing in 83% of the wagers and 78% of the money. However, Vegas doesn't see the game panning out like that and opened Toledo as a 6.5-point favorite and increased it to -8, even though the bets and money are coming in on the Redhawks. Miami, Ohio, does have the 8th-best scoring defense in the country, giving up 16.3 points per game. Unfortunately, their offense cannot complement this stout unit and only scores an average of 27.2 points per game. They're averaging 333 yards on offense and giving up 322 on defense. Toledo is on a more even keel, scoring 35.2 points per game on the offensive side of the ball and allowing 20.4 points on the defensive side. The Redhawks are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets. Toledo is also one of the hottest teams in the country, riding a ten-game winning streak coming into the MAC championship. Keep the Rockets in mind when you're making your wagers this weekend.

BIG TEN Championship

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 18 Iowa (+21.5/35) Sat. 8 pm FOX

Keeping the maxim in mind that the squares like to bet favorites and overs, it's no surprise that 53% of the wagers and 77% of the money have come in on the publically-backed No. 2 Wolverines. Oddsmakers like the No. 18 Hawkeyes' defense, which is 4th in the country in scoring at 12.2 ppg, and have adjusted the line from the opening Michigan -23 to -21.5. Unfortunately for Iowa, Michigan's defense is No. 1 in the nation at 10.2 points per game. Worse yet for the Hawkeyes, the Wolverines are 13th in scoring offense, averaging 37.6 points per game. Iowa has faced one great defense this year and was shut out at Penn State 31-0. Michigan beat the Nittany Lions 24-15 in Happy Valley. I'll be honest; I do not expect Iowa to score. However, I also do not see Michigan scoring more than three touchdowns. The Wolverines get the services of their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, after serving another three-game suspension. If Iowa can eke out a touchdown, they stand a great chance of covering. I readily admit taking the Hawkeyes takes courage, but signs point to strongly considering them at plus 21.5.

NFL

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh (-5.5/41) Sunday 1 pm

The public sometimes makes very interesting choices. They decided to back the visiting Cardinals with 69% of the wagers and 79% of the money in their matchup against Pittsburgh. The oddsmakers have other ideas and have moved the line from the opening Steelers -3.5 to -5.5. While the Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray is back and playing decently, Arizona is still a team that averages only 11 points per game on the road. Murray's one road trip netted 16 points at a Houston team, allowing 21.1 points per contest. Their offensive road struggles have contributed to Arizona going 0-9 SU in their last nine away games. To further exacerbate the Cardinals' woes on the road, the Steelers scoring defense is 5th in the league, allowing 18.6 points per game. Pittsburgh's offense, much maligned because of their 58-game streak of less than 400 yards, became the belle of the ball last week after posting 421 yards (but only 16 points) against division rival Cincinnati. Even though the Steelers have not been racking up the offensive yards, they have been winning games, going 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 contests. They deserve strong consideration at home against a poor road team.

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee (+1/43) Sunday 1 pm

The reverse line movement rarely changes who is favored in a game, but that is precisely what we have here. Tennessee opened as a slight one-point favorite. And despite bringing in 61% of the wagers and 82% of the money, oddsmakers made Indianapolis the one-point favorite. The Colts occupy the last wild-card spot, holding the tie-breaker over Houston and Denver. While the Titans are not mathematically out of it, they're 14th out of the 16 AFC teams and would need much help over the next six weeks. Indy has been a road warrior this season, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their five away games. They also really like Nashville, going 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at Tennessee. Look at the team with everything to play for.

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