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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

by Joey House - 9/14/2023

Public Action football betting report Markeston Douglas Florida State Seminoles

The old gambling adage goes "Vegas wasn't built on winners". Many of the successful gambling systems involve some sort of "contrarian", or opposite, component that has gamblers going against the tide. It's rarely a good thing to go against the sportsbooks.

Except when it is a good thing. Through the first two weeks, our games of interest went 2-5 with our system. Conversely, the betting public was 5-2. This falls right in line with past iterations of this system. As more and more data becomes available, sportsbooks become tighter. Thus, when the public moves, it is generally on the wrong side. This will be a situation that we continue to monitor in the upcoming weeks.

The one aspect of the PAR that is different this year than in seasons past is in order for a play to qualify, both the percentage of bets and the percentage of money have to align with the reverse movement. In addition to that, both keys must be above 60%. Other users of this system will sometimes use just one of the two as the indicator. However, if you only want to focus on one aspect, take note of the money, as it is the more important trend to follow. As the saying goes "Follow the money".

This also marks the first week that we take a look at the NFL. As I said previously, I don't use this for the first week of the NFL season because those lines have been posted for months. It seems as though the more dynamic odds that are created with very little observation time seem to draw bettors onto the wrong side.

One thing that John Q. Betting Public is guilty of is an overreaction, especially after Week 1 of the NFL season. For months they have constructed a narrative for what their time or side will do the first week. When reality turns out to be completely different than their plans, oftentimes they overreact to the extreme. Because of the short time between games, they don't have time to properly realize their mistake until the team that they vowed to never bet on again after the Week 1 debacle comes back to bite them in the ass in Week 2.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

NCAA Football

(3) Florida State at Boston College (+26.5) Sat. Noon EST

The Seminoles have looked dominant in every way this season, while BC lost to a MAC opponent and beat an FCS school by a field goal. While an understandable 86% of the money has gone on the road favorite, the spread has dropped from Boston College +28 to +26.5. This is FSU's first true road game (the LSU game was at a neutral site). When this line opened at 28, I was very bullish on BC's chances. Dropping almost a field gives me pause, but 26.5 is a ton of points to lay in a road conference game. FSU had a similar game against BC back on 9/28/13 where the Noles were laying 24 points. They won 48-34, but BC easily covered. The reverse line movement indicates Boston College is worth a further look.

Wyoming @ (4) Texas (-30) Sat. 8:00 P.M.

Wyoming already has one Big 12 win at Texas Tech. The overwhelming plays (82%) and money (96%) have come in on the Cowboys. Yet the line keeps getting larger, anywhere from -29 to -30. The public is saying that Texas is going to have a bit of a letdown after last week's thrilling win at Alabama. Throw in the fact that Wyoming is a quality team with one road win as a double-digit dog, against the Big 12, and they look very inviting. Vegas is saying that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is going to keep his troops focused on the task at hand. The reverse line movement indicates Texas is worth a further look.

NFL

Seattle @ Detroit (-5.5/47.5) Sunday 1 P.M.

Seattle getting the Lions' share (pun intended) of the wagers with 66% of the money and 76% of the wagers is interesting. Seattle looked pretty bad in their home opener last week and everybody knows what Detroit did to the reigning Super Bowl champs. It looks like this is a case of the public not giving enough credit to a previous underdog. Detroit came into the season as one of the sexy longshot picks to win the Super Bowl. Detroit is worth a look here.

New Orleans @ Carolina (+3/40.0) Monday 7:15 P.M.

As a group, the trio of rookie QBs didn't look terrible in the NFL debut. The Panthers member of that group, Bryce Young, had the worst start of the three. So it makes sense that even though 63% of the money is coming in on the Panthers, Vegas adjusted the line from -1.5 to the current -3. My rule of betting against rookie QBs is drastically enhanced when the game is on prime time as this one is. The Saints had three turnovers against an NFL veteran QB. Imagine how many they'll have on Monday night? The Saints are worth a look here.

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