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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

by Joey House - 11/17/2023

Public action football betting report Tai Felton Maryland Terrapins

Welcome to Week 10 of the Public Action Report (PAR). Since there have been a couple of weeks since the last PAR, I'll go over what we are attempting to do. Typically, when the action is particularly one-sided in a game, we expect the odds for the favored team to get less attractive. Sometimes, we will see games when most of the bets are on one team, yet the odds move to make that team more attractive.

Having compiled the stats and doing the research for almost the entire season, I can unequivocally say that the PAR is an outstanding tool to have in your gambling repertoire. In the last PAR, I wrote that three games met the parameters, and my models backed up. There were two other bets with the PAR criteria, but the models didn't support them.

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The games that passed both were 2-1. The other two games that didn't pass both models were 0-2. This illustrates using these as a tool but still doing additional research rather than just blindly betting on a system.

This week, 12 games have reverse line movement, but only three passed the proprietary model I employ. I'll include the games that passed the PAR test but not my system. All games are on Saturday and can be viewed on the broadcast listed.

No. 3 Michigan vs. Maryland (+19/49.5) Noon FOX

Our first game features one of the nation's premier teams. Michigan went into Happy Valley last week and dominated No. 9 Penn State with a fierce ground game. That evidently impressed the bettors but not the oddsmakers, as the game opened at Michigan -22 but has moved down to -19, despite the 80% of the wagers and 65% of the money coming in on the Wolverines. After watching the Big Ten this season, Maryland will present more of a problem for the Wolverines on the offensive side of the ball than Penn State did. Michigan's head coach, Jim Harbaugh, was officially suspended for the final three games of the regular season, so once again will not be on the sidelines. That didn't seem much of an issue last week, but motivation could be a factor here. This has all the makings of a trap game for the Wolverines: second consecutive road game, coming off a huge win and facing a much weaker team between their most challenging games of the season. I'm not calling for the outright upset, but look for the Terps to keep it close. As an aside, the under has cashed in every game that Harbaugh has been suspended for.

Kent State vs. Ball State (-12.5/41.5) 2:00 pm ESPN+

This contest is the only MAC game to be played on Saturday this week. While 88% of the bets and 92% of the money has come in on the side of Kent State, the line has moved opposite from Ball State -11 to -12.5, with a total of 42. Kent State is having a dismal season, with a record of 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS. They are dead last in scoring on offense, with 14.6 points per game. Their defense is slightly better, ranked 121st out of 133 with 34.4 ppg. Ball State's record isn't setting the world on fire at 3-7, but they do sport a 5-4-1 ATS mark. The Golden Flashes are 1-5 SU in their last six games at Ball State, while the Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games. Indicators point to Ball State to win and cover.

Baylor vs. TCU (-12.5/58.5) 3:30 pm ESPN+

We go to the Big 12 for our next matchup. Baylor travels to Fort Worth with a 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS to face a TCU squad that is 4-6 SU and ATS. The line opened with Baylor being a two-touchdown underdog but has shrunk to 12.5, contrary to 78% of the wagers and 70% of the money being placed on TCU. This is one of the rare circumstances that a game passes both of my models, and I still can't recommend it. Baylor's defense is 116th in the country, allowing 32.4 ppg. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last road games against the Horned Frogs. TCU is only 1-4 SU over their last five games, but they played Texas incredibly tough. I think that the sportsbook's rationale is that TCU might be emotionally spent after that gut-wrenching loss. I'm just not willing to suggest wagering on Baylor. No recommendations.

Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern (-6.5/60.5) 6:00 pm ESPN+

The "FunBelt" gives us our final game as the Old Dominion Monarchs visit Atlanta to battle with Georgia Southern. The bettors have backed ODU to the tune of 61% of the wagers and 82% of the money. The books are telling the gamblers that they're wrong, moving the line from the opening -6 to -6.5. This season started great for the Eagles, as they jumped out to a 4-1 SU record but are only 2-3 SU over their last five games. The one thing Georgia Southern can do is score, putting up 32.7 ppg. They are averaging 306.7, which is 10th in the nation. This spells trouble for ODU, as they allow 242.1 ypg through the air. Ga Southern isn't great on defense, but that shouldn't be a concern as ODU averages 23.0 ppg. Give Georgia Southern strong consideration in your plays.

Here is a list of the other games with reverse line movement that didn't pass my metrics.

Nevada vs. Colorado. St

Illinois vs. Iowa

Sam Houston St vs. Western Kentucky

UNLV vs. Air Force

Minnesota vs. Ohio State

UCF vs. Texas Tech

FIU vs. Arkansas

Texas vs. Iowa St

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