by Joey House - 10/5/2023

Public action football betting report Ethan Garbers UCLA Bruins

Welcome to the sixth week of the Public Action Report (PAR), where we identify games that feature reverse line movement and use that information to start handicapping them. PARs are a great way to continue your mid/late week gambling. They highlight when a line moves opposite, or "contrarian", to the money being wagered. This discrepancy can often be a valuable piece of information as it's usually best to fade the public's betting option whenever possible. Remember, Vegas wasn't built on winners.

The PAR slightly perked up last week, going a respectable 3-2. We lost the Boston College game by the hook, and I'm not sure Indiana actually made the trip to College Park in their game against Maryland. We rebounded nicely, winning the final three college games. The one NFL selection is a beautiful example of the idea of using the PAR to help you handicap games. Even though the line movement was indicating backing the Browns, I couldn't, in good conscience, recommend that. Baltimore won convincingly. While you can follow this system blindly, it becomes much more powerful when you utilize it as one tool in your handicapping arsenal.

Doc's Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

NCAA

No. 13 Washington State at UCLA (-3.5/59.5) Sat. 3:00 PM PACN

It would appear that the oddsmakers are not as sold on the Cougars as the pollsters and the public. A week after winning as a 3-point home dog against then-No. 14 Oregon State, they now visit a UCLA team. Even though Wazzu has received 71 % of the wagers and 63% of the money, the spread has gone from the magical number of 3 to 3.5. The type of line movement that either pushes the spread onto or pulls it off one of the key football numbers demands attention. Part of the reason that Vegas may be backing Chip Kelly's squad is the injury to the Cougars' Lincoln Victor, the leading wide receiver. Then there is the fact that Washington State is 2-6 SU in their last 8 meetings with UCLA. PICK: UCLA -3.5

Syracuse at No. 14 North Carolina (-8.5/59) Sat. 3:30 PM ESPN

This is one of those interesting games that highlight the different views of the oddsmakers and their betting opposition. The bettors see an undefeated and ranked North Carolina, playing at home, against a Syracuse team that struggles away from the Carrier Dome. The oddsmakers see an Orangemen team that is scoring 38.2 ppg (UNC is at 35.8), and a defense that is only allowing 297.2 ypg (UNC's defense allows 363 yards per game). In addition, Syracuse is a solid 2-1 SU in their last 3 games against the Tar Heels. PICK: Syracuse +8.5

North Texas at Navy (-6/61.5) Sat. 3:30 PM CBSSN

This game would make me believe that the oddsmakers might be slightly patriotic. The Mean Green of North Texas has garnered 73% of the bets and a whopping 92% of the money, yet the spread has increased from Navy minus 3 to Navy minus 6. Such a significant adjustment warrants a closer look. Navy is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Conference USA teams, and North Texas is 0-6 SU against teams from the AAC. I cannot make a recommendation here but do suggest taking a closer look at the Midshipmen. NO PICK

Bowling Green at Miami, Ohio (-10/45) Sat. 3:30 PM ESPN+

We head to the MAC for our next PAR selection, as Miami, OH, has brought in 83% of the tickets and 70% of the money, yet the spread has shrunk from Miami, OH -11 to -10. I would be pissed if I had bet them early at 11 and they ended up winning by only 10, which incidentally is what our model has the Redhawks winning by. Bowling Green has been wildly inconsistent, losing to the Ohio Bobcats 38-7 and then traveling to Georgia Tech and winning as a 21-point road dog (taking that wager on the moneyline would have netted you about +900). Since their season-opening loss to the other Miami school in the country, Miami, OH, has rattled off 4 consecutive wins, including a victory over one of the newest members of the Big 12, Cincinnati. Over the last 10 meetings, the SU and ATS record is completely even at 5-5. The average score is Miami, OH 26 Bowling Green 25.3. The Falcons are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 visits to Fred C. Yager Stadium in Miami, Ohio. NO PICK

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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Sixth Edition)

NCAA

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