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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Seventh Edition)

by Joey House - 10/12/2023

Public action football betting report Drew Allar Penn State Nittany Lions

Welcome to Week 7 of the Public Action Report (PAR). For those new to this weekly series, here's a brief refresher of what you can expect.

Typically, when the action is particularly one-sided in a game, we expect the odds for the favored team to get less attractive. Sometimes, though, we will see games when 70 percent or more of the bets are on one team, yet the odds move to make that team more attractive.

That's likely a sign that smart money is on the less popular team, and that means that the less popular team is worth our attention. This year, we have tightened up the criteria further - we are only interested in games when the line movement is what we deem to be significant - typically involving a key number or considerable movement. In addition, the percentage of wagers, as well as the percentage of money, have to be on the opposing side of the line movement.

In my research for this week, I found an article discussing the success of the betting public, or "squares," this year in the NFL. The article revealed that through the first five weeks of the season, the public has been right roughly 63% of the time.

In reviewing the PAR, it appears that the squares are also holding their own in the college ranks. Through the first six weeks, the PAR picks are 12-13 (48%). This percentage is remarkably close to underdogs' against-the-spread (ATS) wins: 210-213-13 (49.6%). These stats illustrate my recommendation of using the PAR as a tool in your betting repertoire, not the only weapon.

Doc's Sports offers college football expert picks on our college football predictions page for every game.

Fresno State (-4.5/54.5) at Utah State Fri. 8:00 PM CBS SN

We get you right into the action with a Friday night selection. Fresno State has been generating the lion's share of the handle, with 85% of the bets and 82% of the money wagered so far. Yet the line opened at -6 and has shrunk to its current -4.5. The 5-1 Bulldogs have had a couple of nice wins at Purdue and Arizona State. But Utah State's offense has a higher ppg (38.2) than Fresno State (33.5). The Aggies are tough at home, going 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 6-1 SU in their previous seven games against Mountain West Conference West Division teams.

Indiana at No. 2 Michigan (-33.5/45) Sat. Noon FOX

This game is one you should investigate and draw your own conclusions. Michigan's first three games all had four touchdowns or higher spreads, and the Wolverines didn't cover one of them. Using this information as a starting point, the money has come pouring in on Indiana, with 71% of the wagers and 91% of the money. Yet the spread increased from -32 to -33.5 at most sportsbooks. Michigan's head coach, Jim Harbaugh, was suspended for those games, and the offense looked like they were playing safe. Since his return, the Wolverines are 2-0-1 ATS and averaging 42.7 ppg. The Hoosiers hope that basketball starts soon, as their football team is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games and has not won in Michigan in over 25 years, going 0-10 in that period. They are, however, 5-5 ATS in that stretch.

Iowa State at Cincinnati (-5/44) Sat. Noon FS1

This is the first meeting ever between Iowa State and one of the new Big 12 members, Cincinnati. Bettors have backed the Cyclones with 75% of the bets and 69% of the money. The line, however, has gone from the Bearcats -3 to -5. The public is devaluing Cincinnati because this is their first year in a more challenging conference. The Bearcats have the better offense and tougher defense. Iowa State is abysmal on the road, averaging 13.5 ppg. The Cyclones are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Cincinnati deserves a strong look.

Massachusetts at No. 6 Penn State (-42/54.5) Sat. 3:30 PM BTN

The Nittany Lions are a target for the betting public, as this marks the second time the public has faded them. UMass has received 80% of the wagers and a whopping 96% of the money, while the line has moved from Penn State -39 to -42. With Ohio State up next for the Nittany Lions, many believe that head coach James Franklin will sprint out to a lead and then coast, resting and keeping his players healthy. While that strategy makes sense, the squares need to consider Franklin's willingness to continue attacking with his second-string offense. The Nittany Lions are among the few remaining undefeated and untied teams ATS this season. Franklin's coaching philosophy of letting the second-string players actually play instead of merely killing the clock is well-documented and has been displayed twice this season already. Take a look at Penn State for the weekend.

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