Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Second Edition)

by Joey House - 9/7/2023

Weekly public action football betting report predictions Ben Bryant Northwestern Wildcats

Last week the Public Action Report was good at targeting reverse line movement. Since it is still early in the season, I'll cover my criteria once again. In order for a game to make my list, both the percentage of bets and money need to be on the opposing side of the line move. So, if all of the money and bets are going in on the favorite, but the spread shrinks instead of getting larger, then that game warrants a look. We are not advising to blindly bet on the recommended teams, but they definitely deserve a closer look. And this report has been solid in the past at targeting winners, especially later in the season.

Finally, I will also be covering the NFL in this report, but I don't like using this system in Week 1 because the lines have been out there for so long and I prefer for the numbers to be fresh and the action to be current, not spread out over months.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Nebraska at (22) Colorado (-2.5/59.5) Saturday Noon I'm ignoring the opening line of Nebraska -7 because that was set well before the season started. After last week's shocking upset win at TCU, Colorado immediately went to a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Since then, all of the love (and more importantly money) has gone on the Buffaloes, yet the spread has dropped a half-point. This is significant for a couple of reasons: First, 3 is one of the key spread numbers in football, and second, the spread is shrinking instead of increasing. Coach Sanders has certainly galvanized the public to back him, but the books aren't quite sold yet. So we are looking at the Huskers in this situation.

UTEP at Northwestern (+1.5/37.5) Saturday 3:30 PM This line opened with Northwestern being the favorite. And while three-quarters of the money is going on the Wildcats, the Miners are now the favorite. While Northwestern is admittedly in a state of disarray, UTEP has plenty of issues of its own, losing to the first-year program Jacksonville State, before struggling to get a win at home against FCS Incarnate Word. Northwestern's QB Ben Bryant, a transfer from Cincinnati, showed some glimpses of talent against the Scarlet Knights, although he was sacked 5 times. There is some talent in the Wildcat receiving room. And as Bryant gets more comfortable, he'll utilize that. Looking at Northwestern's schedule, there aren't too many places to pick up a "W" and I believe that new head coach David Braun will have his squad fired up for their home debut.

Houston at Rice (+9.5/51.5) Saturday 7:00 PM In a battle for the city of Houston, these two schools square off. The number opened at Houston -8.5. And despite 70% of the money coming in on Rice, the number is currently at 9.5, creeping towards the key point at 10. Sometimes the masses do things that make no sense, and backing Rice in this scenario is one of them. Perhaps they're drawn in by the allure of former Georgia QB JT Daniels. What they seem to have forgotten is that the Cougars have won 7 straight, covering 5 of those, against the Owls.

Wisconsin at Washington State (+6.5/58.5) Saturday 7:30 PM The Badgers are packing up their game and going to head out west to Pullman in search of revenge for last year's 17-14 upset in Madison. An impressive three-quarters of the money is coming down on Washington State, yet the spread went from the opening 4.5 to its current 6.5. The Badgers' new transfer QB from SMU, Tanner Mordecai, looked thoroughly unimpressive against Buffalo. Who did look impressive, though, was the running back tandem of Braelon Allen (141 yards and 2 TDs) and Chez Mellusi (157 yards and 2 TDs). The Cougars hung a 50-spot on Colorado State but will likely find it much tougher sledding against a solid Big Ten defense. New Badger OC Phil Longo's system is as complex as it is dangerous, so there will be learning curves for the new QB. I think he improves greatly and even if he doesn't, when you have 2 backs that ran for 298 yards, that can cover a lot of boo-boos.

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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions

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