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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Ninth Edition)

by Joey House - 10/27/2023

Public action football betting report Quinn Ewers Texas Longhorns

Welcome to Week 9 of the Public Action Report (PAR). Here's a brief refresher of what you can expect from those new to this weekly series.

Typically, when the action is particularly one-sided in a game, we expect the odds for the favored team to get less attractive. Sometimes, we will see games when most of the bets are on one team, yet the odds move to make that team more attractive.

It took only eight weeks, but we finally had our big breakthrough last week, going 3-1 and calling the upset of Mississippi State over 6-point favorite Auburn. Our only loss came in the Sun Belt, where Georgia Southern won 38-28 against Louisiana-Monroe but didn't cover the 17.5-point spread.

Throughout the season, the selections given out in this article are those that meet the criteria and match up with my handicapping models. From now on, I will release the plays that I endorse, as well as those that meet the criteria but didn't pass my model's test. This week, there are three games we back and two that have the proper movement but don't fit into our models.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Memphis vs. North Texas (+7.5/68.5) Sat. 3:00 P.M. ESPN+

I don't think college football has a better school nickname than "Mean Green." The bettors must also think so, as they have garnered 76% of the wagers and 74% of the money placed. The oddsmakers aren't as bullish, with the spread moving from Memphis -7 to -7.5. The fact that the number moved off the key "7" mark speaks volumes on the bookmaker's thought process. Both teams feature prolific scoring offenses (Memphis is 20th at 35.6, and UNT is 25th at 34.6), but that's where the comparisons stop. The Mean Green can't stop anyone, allowing 35.4 ppg, 126th out of 133 in the nation. While Memphis's stop-unit isn't great (22.7 ppg), when measured against the Mean Green, the Tigers look like the '85 Bears. UNT is 1-8 SU in their last nine games. Memphis is 6-2 SU in their previous eight contests. Our model says that Memphis is a small play.

No. 1 Georgia vs Florida (+14.5/48.5) Sat. 3:30 P.M. CBS

Many gamblers like to watch their games in play, so we've been lucky to get some reverse line movement on one of the most popular games of the year. Even though Florida has been receiving the lion's share of wagers and money (73% of the bets and 61% of the cash), Georgia has seen their spread increase from -14 to -14.5 in the game dubbed "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." Once again, the number that the line moved off is an essential factor to consider when looking at the reverse move. Even though Georgia is currently 7-0 SU, they have done quite poorly at 1-5-1 ATS this season. They are, however, not only 5-1 SU in the last six games against the Gators, but they're also 4-2 ATS in that stretch. Historical trends dictate that Georgia be given some consideration. The over 48.5 is, however, one of the strongest plays of the weekend.

BYU vs. No. 7 Texas (-18/50) Sat. 3:30 P.M. ABC

Because of the move by Texas and Oklahoma next season, this will be the only matchup between these two intriguing teams as conference rivals. The squares are trying to adhere to the rule of betting against the favorite, as they've laid down 79% of the wagers and 93% of the money. Nevertheless, the books have moved Texas from -17 to -18. The Longhorns' offense and defense are both in the top 30 of the country, the same which cannot be said for BYU. The Cougars offense ranks 75th in scoring at 27.6 ppg and 61st in defensive scoring with 24.3 ppg. The Longhorns are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games in Austin. BYU, meanwhile, is 6-12 ATS in their most recent 18 games. To compensate for its loss to Oklahoma in the "Red River Rivalry," Texas must beat its good opponents quite handily. At 5-2, that is precisely what BYU would seem to be (although the informed know that the Cougars schedule was very soft at the beginning). Consider laying the points with Texas.

The remaining games that qualified under the PAR criteria were USC -10.5 vs. California and Wyoming +5 against Boise State. Most wagers and money came in on both California and Boise St, but our models back that movement, so I could not in good conscience recommend those plays. To be transparent, I wanted to include them in case you wanted to use them for your research.

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