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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Fourth Edition)

by Joey House - 9/21/2023

Public action football betting report Drew Allar Penn State Nittany Lions

As I had written earlier in the Opening Line Report, for the first time since September 2006, there are six Top 25 matchups. As luck would have it, one of them qualifies for the PAR system. We will get a chance to observe this system in prime time on Saturday night. Last week's PAR picks were 2-2, splitting in both college and NFL.

The PAR focuses on the advanced gambling concept of "reverse line movements". Sportsbooks try to keep an equal amount of action on both sides to ensure their profit from the vig. If a large percentage of the bets and money are coming in on the favorite, they will increase the spread, to entice the public to take the underdog, or vice versa. However, the reverse line moves occur when the lines move in a contrarian fashion. In the above example, with the favorite getting all of the action, in a reverse line move the spread will actually shrink instead of getting larger. This usually indicates a "sharp" or very respected bettor or small group of bettors taking the opposite side of the public.

The beauty of the PAR is that it gives you an excellent starting point that utilizes one of the most profitable theories in sports betting, being "contrarian". The squares are quite often on the wrong side and the PAR highlights these opportunities. I have tweaked the system a bit, setting the minimum percentage needed for both bets made and money wagered as 66%. This further tightens the requirements and should, in theory, give us stronger plays.

While I do look at both college and pro, there were no plays that reached the necessary level in the NFL this weekend. In an effort to be transparent, the Houston Texans had the correct wagering tendencies, just not the percentages needed.

Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

NC State at Virginia (+9.5/47.5) Friday 9/22 7:30 PM

This game caught my attention immediately for a couple of reasons. First, I live in Virginia and follow the state's sports teams closely. Second, the percentages on NC State were so high that the line move really stood out. The Wolfpack has received 91% of the bets and 93% of the money. However, the line opened at NC State -10 and shrunk a half a point. While that move isn't huge, it is noticeable when the percentages are that high. After the shooting tragedy last year, UVA is the feel-good story of the year. While the Cavaliers haven't won a game yet, they have played a much tougher schedule than the Wolfpack and put up a good fight at home against James Madison, losing by a point but covering as a home dog. NC State looked underwhelming on the road at Connecticut. I love conference home dogs, especially when it's almost double digits. NC State has been a road favorite at Virginia one other time, as 6.5-point chalk in 2002. They lost outright 14-9. The line movement indicates Virginia might keep this one close. PICK: Virginia +9.5

Boise State at San Diego State (+7/45) Friday 9/22 10:30 PM

A very confusing, and honestly, almost fishy type of game. An amazing 94% of the bets and 96% of the money has come in on the Aztecs, yet the spread went from Boise State -6 to the key number -7. Every model and prediction that I've seen either shows San Diego State winning outright or covering...except for line makers. Sometimes these plays are difficult to pull the trigger on, but I've learned that quite often the side that "feels" right turns out to be wrong. PICK: Boise State -7

Western Kentucky at Troy (-3.5/58.5) Saturday 9/23 Noon

Line moves that involve a key number should always garner a little extra attention. Troy went from being a 2-point favorite to now laying 3.5 points, despite 72% of the wagers and 66% of the money coming in on the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has made three trips to Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, and is 1-2 SU. Troy just lost a heart-breaking game last Saturday night against conference rival James Madison. The Hilltoppers have a very porous defense that the Trojans should be able to take advantage of. This is probably the strongest PAR play of the weekend. PICK: Troy -3.5

Western Michigan at Toledo (-21/53.5) Saturday 9/23 1:30 PM

Despite coming into the matchup with a record of 1-2 and giving up 35.3 PPG, the public overwhelmingly felt that Western Michigan was getting too many points at 20. The percentage of both bets and money has been coming in on the Broncos at 68% for each. Vegas responded by moving the line from Toledo -20 to -21. The Rockets have been home favorites of three or more touchdowns twice against the Broncos twice before, winning and covering both times. With an offense that is averaging 40 PPG and a defense allowing 16.7 PPG, we think they'll make it a perfect 3 for 3. PICK: Toledo -21

Iowa at Penn State (-14.5/40) Saturday 9/23 7:30 PM

Given the intense scrutiny that accompanies a Top 25 matchup, it's logical that reverse line movements in such games carry greater significance. While Iowa has received 66% of the wagers and 70% of the money, Penn State has seen the spread go from -14 to as high as -15, before coming back down to -14.5. The Nittany Lions, who are a perfect 3-0 in both SU and ATS, have an offense that is 14th in the nation in scoring average at 43.7 PPG. However, taking away the 63-7 demolition of the FCS Delaware team, that average drops down to 34. Their defense, however, is giving up an average of 14 PPG in those two contests. The public saw the Nittany Lions struggle a bit last week at Illinois, before pulling away to win. However, that was Penn State's first-year starting QB Drew Allar's first road start in his career. Adding to Penn State's advantage is the vaunted "White-Out Game" atmosphere, easily one of the loudest environments in college football. Held for one game every season, they are usually reserved for the toughest opponents before November. In the 18 editions of the White-Out, Penn State is 10-8 SU and 11-7 ATS. In the James Franklin era at PSU, the Lions are 5-3 SU but 6-2 ATS. If you're like most bettors who enjoy viewing the games they have wagered on, you'll at least have a great spectacle to watch. PICK: Penn State -14.5

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