Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (11th Edition)

by Joey House - 11/24/2023

Public action football betting report Kedon Slovis BYU

We've come to the last college regular season edition of the Public Action Report, where we track reverse line movements and try to glean value from conflicting betting patterns.

As interesting as writing the PAR this year has been, it's also been an incredible learning experience. After last week's record of 2-1 on the recommendations (remember, I couldn't in good conscience suggest Baylor and, for excellent reasons, losing 42-17 to TCU), the yearly tally of PAR picks comes to 18-15, a 54.5% winning percentage. As any handicapper worth their salt will tell you, anytime you finish in the black is a good campaign.

What I found interesting with the PAR is the opportunity to uncover live underdogs. Texas Tech, as a 9.5-point dog against Houston, had the longest odds to win after they defeated the Cougars 49-28. Mississippi State won 7-3 against Arkansas as a 6-point underdog. Being able to incorporate some games like this into a money line parlay will dramatically increase your payouts.

This week, there are three games that meet the criteria for the PAR and also check out in the computer model. Then, there are two other contests that pass the first parameters but not the computer check. I'll include both sets of games for your review. All the games are on Saturday.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

BYU vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State (-17/56.5) 3:30 pm ABC

I'm certain that a 5-6 record and trying to become bowl-eligible on the final week of the season was not what BYU had in mind when they joined the Big 12 after 11 seasons as an independent. However, a losing record hasn't deterred bettors from backing the Cougars against the Cowboys of Oklahoma State, as 90% of the wagers and 86% of the money have come in on BYU. Oddsmakers are not impressed with the Cougars, as the opening line of Oklahoma State -16 has moved to -17 despite the public backing. The Cowboys have been a force at home over the past two seasons, going 18-2 SU in Stillwater. This season, they're both 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home contests. BYU's offense is on the weak side, ranked 105th in the nation with 22.1 ppg. The defensive story doesn't get much better; it's ranked 98th while allowing 28.9. The Cowboys' weak spot on defense is a secondary that allows 256.1 yards per game, but against BYU's anemic passing attack (206.2 yards per game), that shouldn't be a concern. A big win might help Oklahoma State's chance to land a bigger bowl. The Cowboys -17 should be strongly considered.

No. 1 Georgia vs. Georgia Tech (+23.5/60) 7:30 pm ABC

This season has been business as usual for the Bulldogs, who are currently in the midst of a 28-game win streak. Georgia is also 17-3 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings with their bitter in-state rival, Georgia Tech. We all know that the public squares like to bet the favorite, so the only surprise is that only 80% of the wagers and 87% of the money have come in on the Bulldogs. The oddsmakers have different ideas, as the line that opened at -24.5 in favor of Georgia has moved to -23.5. Even more surprisingly, this coincides with what my computer model is predicting, as it's calling for Georgia Tech to lose by 22 points, barely squeaking into the 23.5-point window. The Bulldogs have both the 5th-best offense and defense in the country, averaging 40.4 ppg while allowing 15.1. The Yellowjackets are a capable offensive unit, putting 31.9 points a game on the board. Perhaps the oddsmakers' train of thought is that with an SEC championship game with Alabama on deck next week, the Bulldogs may not be completely focused. This logic hasn't panned out in the past, but with this year's edition of Georgia being 4-6-1 ATS through their first 11 games, it's clear they are not the juggernaut of years past. The Yellowjackets plus 23.5 points deserve investigation.

Charlotte vs. South Florida (-5.5/57) 7:30 pm ESPNU

When two lower-tiered teams meet, oftentimes, the public will bet on the more popular team. South Florida has been a darling in the past, while Charlotte has one winning season in their 8+ years at the FBS level. Not surprisingly, the Bulls received 89% of the wagers and 87% of the money. However, the line has moved against Charlotte, has they've gone from a 6-point underdog to a 5.5-point dog. USF is fighting for a bowl bid, and offensively, they are adequate, gaining 451 yards and scoring 29.3 points per game. Their defense is a completely different story, ranking next-to-last in the NCAA, allowing 36.8 ppg. So even though the 49ers come in with a record of 3-8, they have a puncher's chance in this game. Their offense is almost as bad as USF's defense, ranked 127th with 17.8 ppg. Their defense is exactly 10 points better than USF's, and this is where they derive their advantage. South Florida is historically very poor in November, posting a 1-19 SU in their last 20 games played in the month of Thanksgiving. The Bulls are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in the conference. Two of the three victories that Charlotte has posted this year have come on the road, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road trips. This could be one of those outright dog winners I discussed earlier, and as such, the 49ers deserve strong consideration.

Liberty University garnered 87% of the bets and 81% of the money, but the line is moving in their favor, as it opened at +18 for UTEP and now is down to +17. However, the computer model still continues to back Liberty, so this game didn't make the cut.

South Alabama received 88% of the wagers and an astonishing 99% of the money, but Texas State has the oddsmaker's respect, with the spread of Texas State +6 moving to +5.5. The computer still thinks that the Jaguars will cover the initial 6-point spread in their catfight against the Bobcats, so we cannot recommend this game.

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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (11th Edition)

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