Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Eighth Edition)

by Joey House - 10/19/2023

Public action football betting report Drew Allar Penn State

Welcome to Week 8 of the Public Action Report (PAR). Here's a brief refresher of what you can expect for those new to this weekly series.

Typically, when the action is particularly one-sided in a game, we expect the odds for the favored team to get less attractive. Sometimes, though, we will see games when we see most of the bets are on one team, yet the odds move to make that team more attractive.

This is known as a "reverse line movement" and usually indicates that the "sharp" or professional handicappers that are well-respected by the sports books are opposite the side of the public. Valuable information can be gleaned from observing betting patterns and following where the money goes.

Last week, the PAR picks went 2-2. The two big spreads with Penn State and Michigan both covered. The two losses, however, were very interesting. The Fresno State vs. Utah State game had its line open at six and moved down to Fresno State minus 4.5. Fresno won by a score of 37-32. All the early money wagers on Fresno lost, but the late money on Utah State also lost. The never-ending game between oddsmakers and bettors continues, with the sportsbooks winning that contest.

The Iowa State vs. Cincinnati game had some very late line movement, and the "reversed line movement" of the Bearcats going from minus three to minus five actually ended up moving opposite again and settled at -3.5. Not that it mattered, as the Cyclones won 30-10, but this shows how much the markets are sometimes wildly unpredictable.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-5.5/45.5) Sat. Noon FOX

This is the public's first time backing Penn State in the PAR this season, with 71% of the wagers and 78% of the money being placed on the Nittany Lions. The squares have been drawn in by Penn State's 6-0 SU and ATS record and their Top 5 offense averaging 44.3 points per game. They see the best defense in the nation in yards allowed per game (166 yards) and the second-best defense in the country in points allowed per game (8.0). They haven't considered that Ohio State, who has played a more challenging schedule, has the third-best scoring defense in the country at 9.7 ppg. Penn State has struggled on the road this season, averaging 88 fewer yards of total offense than at home. This stat doesn't bode well for a team that is 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games in the Horseshoe. Even though the spread has increased from -4 to -5.5, the Buckeyes deserve a serious look.

No. 22 Air Force vs. Navy (+10.5/34.5) Sat. Noon CBS

In the first game of the Commander-In-Chief series, Navy has garnered 667% of the bets and 76% of the money, yet Air Force has seen their spread increase from -9 to -10.5. The Midshipmen have struggled on offense this season, ranked 118th out of 133 with 20.9 ppg. This has been a trend over the last three seasons, where they have averaged fewer than 22 points per game. Air Force was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over Navy in that period. Navy's vaunted rushing attack, which routinely averages close to, if not more than, 300 yards, is only churning out 235.7 yards per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, are rushing for 334.2 yards per contest and scoring 37.0 ppg, 17th in the nation. Even though this is a larger spread in a rivalry game, Air Force should be considered the play to make.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (-6/48.5) Sat. Noon ESPN

The public has been giving the favored Razorbacks all love, with 66% of the wagers and 68% of the money. Yet we have seen the line shrink from Mississippi State plus nine to plus six. Arkansas is coming off a valiant loss against Alabama last week, falling 24-21 as 19-point dogs. However, Mississippi State had a bye week last week to rest and recuperate. The Rebels are averaging 54 more yards on offense. Finally, Mississippi State has historically matched up very well with Arkansas, going 8-3 SU in their last 11 meetings. Give the underdogs strong consideration not only with the points but as a potential money-line underdog play.

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Georgia Southern (-17/59.5) Sat. 2:00 PM ESPN+

The Sun Belt conference brings us our selection. The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe have brought in 87% of the wagers and 74% of the money, but Georgia Southern's spread had grown from -15 to -17. ULM is 2-4 on the year, the Eagles are 4-2, and they're both 3-3 ATS. It is there, however, that the similarities end. Louisiana-Monroe is 126th in the country in scoring at 18.5 ppg and only slightly better in scoring defense at 112th with 31.8 ppg allowed. They've generated 318.3 yards of total offense a game and given up a whopping 454.0 yards per game. Georgia Southern, meanwhile, is scoring 31.3 ppg and allowing 23.7, good enough for 49th and 58th in the country, respectively. They combine for 454. 3 yards per contest and gives up 364.3 a game as well. Don't let the big spread scare you off, as it is definitely warranted in this game.

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Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Eighth Edition)

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