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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 8

by Joey House - 10/17/2023

Weekly mid major report James Madison predictions Week 8 Cam Fancher Marshall Thundering Herd

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sunbelt Conference in only their second year at the FBS level. Each week, we will thoroughly analyze the Dukes' upcoming opponent and break down how we see the game playing out. Using local newspapers and inside sources for the analysis and Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System," we give you the tools to maximize your investment in this exciting Mid-Major program.

Somebody needs to tell the NCAA how idiotic their rule prohibiting new teams at the FBS level from post-season play is. For the second season in a row, James Madison is rolling through their competition and will have nothing to show for it except an asterisk by their name saying "Ineligible for post-season play." Why would they want to punish teams that could pump new blood into the stagnate bowl system because these teams are new to the FBS level?

The Dukes officially started their "Redemption Tour" as they soundly defeated Georgia Southern, the first team to beat them last year. The 41-13 victory this past Saturday was even more dominant than the score indicates, as the score was 41-6 until the Eagles scored a meaningless touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Dukes' head coach Curt Cignetti looked to be sending some kind of message as he left his first-string offense in the entire game.

The "Redemption Tour" hits the road as JMU travels to Huntington, West Virginia, to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd. Last season, the Herd handed the Dukes their second loss by a score of 26-12. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m., and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

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Marshall Offense

The Thundering Herd's offense is actually better than the 2022 edition that beat the Dukes last season. They're averaging 420 yards in total offense and 30.3 ppg, compared to 397 yards and 24.5 ppg from a year ago. Marshall's starting QB, Cam Fancher, who made his first career start in last year's JMU game, is 144-210 (68.6%) for 1,506 yards, with seven TDs and five INTs.

With the graduation of senior Khalan Laborn and his sixth-best season as a running back, the Herd's ground attack has taken a significant step back. They're still averaging 156 yards a game, but that's a far cry from the 205.9 they averaged a year ago. Laborn was the Herd's primary weapon in their win over JMU last year, rushing for 150 yards and two TDs. Junior running back Rasheen Ali does have 641 yards on 124 attempts (5.2 ypc) and 11 touchdowns, so it's not like they're incapable of running the ball; they are just not as effective.

Marshall Defense

The heart of last year's Thundering Herd was their shutdown defense, which allowed only 16.0 ppg, 6th-best in the nation. However, graduation decimated this unit as they returned only four starters, and it shows as Marshall is allowing 28.5 ppg through the first six games of the season to go along with 370.3 total yards.

Their rush defense has been porous, giving up 191.8 yards per game. That includes 339 yards against Old Dominion and 240 against Georgia State. Marshall's pass defense would appear solid, allowing only 178.5 yards per game. However, those impressive numbers were racked up in the season's first four games against weak passing teams. In the last two weeks against NC State and Georgia State, they've allowed 265 and 234 yards, respectively.

James Madison Outlook

The Dukes have struggled this season to hold onto big leads. With the exception of Virginia, JMU had a 9+ point lead in the second half in every game. But before the bye, they had difficulty keeping their opponent down, and four out of five of their victories were a one-possession game.

During last week's halftime speech against Georgia Southern, head coach Cignetti challenged the Dukes by claiming they always choke and cough up their lead. That must have lit a fire underneath their ass as they came out of the locker room and reeled off 21 points. If they can keep their foot on the gas the whole game, James Madison will be tough to beat.

Analysis and Prediction

The line opened at James Madison minus 4 with a total of 52.5 points. It has moved down to JMU -3.5 and the total to 52 points.

This should be the toughest test yet for JMU, as Marshall is an effective passing team, and the Dukes have struggled with their passing defense, allowing 310.2 ypg. However, that stat is a little misleading because their opponents have been losing by such a large margin they were forced to throw the ball a lot. This is also why James Madison is 3rd in the country with 26 sacks.

However, Marshall also struggles in some areas that JMU excels in. The Herd are minus two in turnover ratio, and the Dukes are plus four. Marshall's QBs are getting sacked an average of three times a game, and as noted above, the Dukes have a ferocious pass rush.

Marshall's defense has allowed 41.3 points a game in its last three contests, losing two. James Madison has been playing inspiring football this season and looks to avenge another loss from last year. I expect this to be a mid-week shootout, with the Dukes coming out on top.

The Wager

James Madison -3.5: 4 units

OVER 52.5: 4 units

Season Total:

4-5 44.4%

-5.9 units (-$590)

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