College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 7

by Joey House - 10/11/2023

Weekly mid major report James Madison predictions Week 7 Jordan McCloud

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the Dukes of James Madison University as they continue navigating the treacherous waters of the FBS.

JMU had its bye last week, and they rolled into it with a perfect record of 5-0. In just their second year of competition, they have managed to start both campaigns undefeated. Eight of the last 10 programs to leap from FCS to the FBS level (not including this season's debut by Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State) reside in the Sun Belt Conference. Those eight teams combined for a 38-58 (.396) first-year record. JMU's sterling 8-3 mark was second to only Georgia Southern's 9-3 record in 2014.

The fact that the Dukes have been able to replicate their success from their inaugural season speaks volumes to the depth and stability of their program. Even though they had to replace one of the best QBs in school history, they haven't skipped a beat this season.

Their opponent this week is the Georgia Southern Eagles, the team that ended their perfect season last year in the 6th game of the season. The kickoff between these two divisional foes is set for Saturday at noon. The contest will be played in Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, Virginia, and will be televised on ESPN2.

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Georgia Southern Offense

As fitting for a school with an Eagle as a mascot, Georgia Southern's main focal point of its offense is a prolific aerial attack. QB Davis Brin is completing 70% of his passes for 1,611 yards and 12 TDs against 6 INTs. In their only loss of the season against the Big Ten's Wisconsin, he threw for 383 yards and one TD. However, he also had five of his interceptions in that game.

The Eagles are no one-trick pony, however. They have two running backs, Sr. Jalen White and Soph. OJ Arnold, that split time in the backfield. Between the two of these backs, they are 6.5 yards per carry and 106 yards a game. Those numbers don't sound like much until you realize they're throwing for 337 yards per contest as well, for a total offensive output of 471 yards per game.

They do have two areas that James Madison should exploit: turnovers and sacks. They have had seven total interceptions and three lost fumbles. The Eagles' offensive line makes holes for its running backs but has had difficulty in keeping the QB upright. They've surrendered 10 sacks to some pretty ordinary pass-rushing defenses. With JMU's elite pass-rush unit, they could create havoc in the passing attack, leading to obviously a plethora of sacks but also possible hurried throws that turn into interceptions.

Georgia Southern Defense

The Eagles defense is good but not outstanding. In the four games against FBS opponents (they opened the season with the FCS school The Citadel), they're allowing 25.3 ppg, and their defense has generated 10 turnovers (7 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries). Their 8 team sacks have them tied for 104th in the NCAA.

In Georgia Southern's one marquee matchup this season, they traveled to Madison, Wisconsin, to take on the Badgers. They held the Badgers to 35 points, all of which came in the form of 5 rushing TDs. Wisconsin had a balanced attack in that game, with 244 yards through the air and 207 on the ground.

James Madison Outlook

JMU had to replace last year's QB, Todd Centeio, who had thrown for the 8th-highest yards in a season in 2022. While the initial starter wasn't working out, the Dukes sorted out their QB controversy rather quickly in the first game and haven't looked back since. What could have possibly become a distraction was taken care of quickly and definitively, and the proof is in the results. Their offense may not be as high-powered, but it is just as efficient. Against the FBS opponents they have faced, the Dukes are averaging 32 ppg, including a 45-point outburst out at Utah State. They have the ability to win in different ways, which is crucial for long-term success. While current QB Jordan McCloud may not be last year's Centeio, he's more than capable of guiding an effective unit.

What makes this team special is the defense. James Madison leads the country in rush defense, giving up a paltry 38.6 yards per game. Yes, part of the reason is that teams are passing for 311.4 yards per game. However, any time you lead the nation in a good statistical category is impressive. Even with a bye last week, the Dukes are second in the country in sacks, with 23. Finally, they are also winning the turnover battle, with a margin of +0.3.

Analysis and Prediction

Last year's meeting between these two teams resulted in 83 points scored and 1,046 yards of total offense. So, it's understandable why the line opened with James Madison as a 3.5-point favorite and the total at 60. The spread has increased to JMU -5, but the total has started to recede a bit, dropping back to 58.5.

While I'm not predicting such an outburst of offense as last season, a 58.5-point total seems like a gift. If you believe in revenge scenarios, this game is a perfect candidate for that, as JMU will be looking to avenge its first loss in the ranks of the FBS schools. Georgia Southern has a potent offense, and the one area that the Dukes have struggled in is pass defense. However, all of those yards allowed usually don't equate to touchdowns, as they're only giving up two passing TDs a game. Our model is calling for a 42-26 victory for James Madison, easily covering the 5-point spread and going over the total.

The Wager

James Madison -5: 3 units

OVER 58.5: 3 units

Season Total:

3-4 42.8%

-5.6 units (-$780)

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