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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 4

by Joey House - 9/20/2023

Weekly mid major report James Madison predictions Week 4 McCae Hillstead Utah State Aggies

Each week, I will use my thorough knowledge of the James Madison Dukes football program to bring you insightful, but more importantly, profitable, information and analyze the Dukes' current game. To maximize our return on investment, I will be utilizing Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System".

The Dukes kicked off the Sun Belt portion of their schedule last week with a visit to Troy, Alabama, to take on the Trojans of Troy. While the game wasn't pretty, JMU proved that it could win the low-scoring, hard-fought games. The offense had been the savior for the Dukes the first two games of the season, but the defense that was raved about in the pre-season showed why it garnered so much attention. Troy, the defending Sun Belt champs, threw for an impressive 333 yards and two touchdowns but had their QB sacked six times and had a total of -12 yards rushing. JMU's QB Jordan McCloud has certainly ended any QB controversy, going 18-for-26 for 187 yards with one touchdown, but, more importantly, no interceptions.

This James Madison squad, besides being fun to watch, is just a good football team. Last year, in their first year in the FBS, they rattled off eight wins to start the season and were actually ranked in the AP Top 25. Keep in mind, these kids were playing for nothing but pride, as they were ineligible for any post-season play because of an inane NCAA rule regarding newly-promoted FBS schools.

The Dukes embark on their third, and last, game of this early season road trip, making the long journey out to Logan, Utah, to take on the Utah State Aggies out of the Mountain West Conference. The Aggies enter this battle with a record of 1-2, albeit against much tougher competition, as they traveled to Iowa City and took on the Iowa Hawkeyes, losing 24-14 but covering as a 24-point road dog. Their second game was against an FCS school, and last week they opened MWC play against Air Force, losing as a 9-point underdog, 39-21.

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Utah State Offense

The Aggies seem to have their own QB controversy. After they fell behind to Air Force 29-0, Utah State head coach Blake Anderson benched their senior starter Cooper Legas last week and turned the reins over to true freshman McCae Hillstead, who responded by leading the Aggies to three scoring drives and zero turnovers. He has been named the starting signal caller for Saturday's contest against the Dukes.

Their rushing attack is averaging 183 yards and 6.0 yards per carry (YPC), but those numbers are deceiving as they were mostly racked up in the game against FCS Idaho State. Against their FBS opponents, they're averaging only 85 yards and 3.4 YPC a game. This is a beautiful example of why a little bit of digging into team stats is needed, as they went from an effective rushing attack to less-than-pedestrian.

Part of the reason for these rushing struggles is an offensive line that lost four of last year's five starters. One of the things that separates mid-majors from Power 5 schools is the differences in depth. Such a large turnover might not be a major problem for Georgia or Michigan, but it can be catastrophic for a program like Utah State. If this game were being played later in the year, this wouldn't be as big of an issue. Three games into the season, it's still an issue that needs to be accounted for.

Aggie Defense

This is where the Dukes should have a decided advantage. Holding No. 25 Iowa to only 24 points sounds impressive until you realize they are averaging only 28.3 ppg. Giving up 39 to Air Force isn't horrible, because with their triple option, they're averaging 31.3 ppg. What is concerning, if you're an Aggies fan, is the 424 total yards and 28 points given up against the FCS Idaho State. The Bengals actually gained more first downs than the Aggies. Surrendering 323 yards and three touchdowns through the air to an FCS program should be a major cause of concern for Utah State.

James Madison Outlook

Jordan McClous had another very efficient game and, given the Aggies' woes in the secondary, could be in line for a big night. I would have liked to see RB Kaelon Black get some more carries, as he averaged 6.0 YPC on 13 carries (78 yards) against a tough Troy rush defense.

The Dukes' defensive unit must be licking their chops, going against a true freshman making his first start behind an offensive line that is almost as inexperienced as he is. I expect them to be able to pressure Hillstead early and often, forcing not only sacks but poor decisions that result in turnovers.

Analysis and Prediction

The line opened at JMU -4.5 and was quickly bet up to -5.5 and finally stopped at the current -6.5. The total started out at 53.5 and eventually settled at 52. The reason for the increase in the spread is that 98% of the money has come in on JMU, which causes me a slight concern as I hate to "ride with the public".

The fact that this is the 3rd game of a road trip worries me a bit, as you don't often see that in the NFL, let alone college. Over the last five seasons, teams playing in their 3rd consecutive road game are 24-31 ATS.

However, that advantage for Utah State was negated by their decision to start a true freshman QB. While he was successful last week off the bench, your first start is completely different. Throw in a line that has experience issues and JMU's dominant front seven, it could be a very long night for the youngster.

I like James Madison minus the points, as well as the UNDER of 52.5. In order for this to go over, I think the Aggies would need to score more than 21 points. I see them somewhere in the 10-14 point range, which would then require JMU to put up more than 38 points. Even though Utah State has a weak secondary, I feel the Dukes are going to try and control the clock, speed the game up, and get home with a win. I really like the under here.

Last week, we had the small ML dog pick right, but missed on the over 46.5 and ended up minus 2 units. We'll look to right the ship this week.

The Wager

James Madison -6.5 3 units

UNDER 52.5 3 units

Season Total:

1-2 33.3%

-5.3 units (-$530)

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