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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 2

by Joey House - 9/6/2023

James Madison Dukes football

Each week, I will use my thorough knowledge of James Madison to bring you insightful, but, more importantly, profitable, information and analyze the James Madison Dukes current game. To maximize our return on investment, I will be utilizing Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System".

While the scoreboard shows James Madison dominating Bucknell in a 38-3 smackdown this past Saturday, watching the game revealed something else. As expected, the Dukes relied heavily on their ground game, not because they wanted to but because they were forced to by the poor play of starting QB Alonza Barnett. He started 1-for-5, with an interception, and he was pulled after his JMU's second drive of the second half, in favor of the Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud. He instantly pumped life into a stagnant JMU offense and the Dukes scored touchdowns on their next two possessions. McCloud finished 7-for-11 for 144 yards and 2 TDs. Starting running back Kaelon Black was the star in the rushing attack, with 125 yards on 12 carries. JMU's defense was as good as advertised, limiting the Bison to 62 yards rushing 208 total yards, and just one field goal.

A slightly tougher test awaits the Dukes this coming Saturday, as they travel 50 in-state miles to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. These virtual neighbors, because of James Madison's lower football classification, have played only three times and not since 1983. This is the first time these two meet with JMU being in the FBS, and it's clearly a whole new world, as the Dukes opened as a 4.5-point road favorite and have seen that number climb to 6 points in favor of JMU. The total is currently set at 41 and the game is slated for a noon kickoff at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.

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Virginia Offense

The Wahoos, as UVA is affectionately known, are coming off of a 49-13 drubbing administered by No. 12 Tennessee. Tony Muskett, UVA's starting QB, was ineffective during his time in the game, going 9-for-17 for 94 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He was injured while being sacked in the fourth quarter, and his replacement, Anthony Colandrea, wasn't any better at 2-for-7 for 12 yards.

Their rushing attack didn't fare any better, picking up 95 yards on 40 attempts. Muskett had 10 attempts for -23 yards. Starting tailback Kobe Pace carried 7 times for 39, as did his backup Perris Jones

Cavaliers Defense

When you give up 49 points as a defensive unit, the opposing team usually did whatever they wanted, and that was the case in UVA's blowout loss to Tennessee. Vols' QBs went 23-for-33 for 212 yards with 2 TDs and no INTs. The rushing attack was equally as devastating, gaining 287 yards on 52 attempts and five TDs. Virginia was able to force a fumble that they then recovered.

JMU's Offense

James Madison now officially has a QB controversy on their hands as Barnett was completely ineffective. On Bucknell's first series in the second half, JMU blocked the Bison's punt and was set up on Bucknell's 17-yard line. Barnett ran twice for a first down, but after reaching the 2-yard line on first and goal, the Dukes were unable to punch it in. More telling, they didn't try any sort of pass or play action, and it appeared head coach Curt Cignetti had lost all confidence in his QB. The next series is when McCloud made his entrance, which led to three second-half touchdowns. The rushing game was as excellent, as advertised, and will continue to be the strength of this offense. Wide receiver Reggie Brown provided a little aerial excitement with a 57-yard TD catch from McCloud early in the 4th quarter.

Dukes' Defense

JMU's defense lived up to all of the advanced billing. And while it was only an FCS school, one of the hallmarks of being a good team is soundly defeating the opponents you're supposed to. Saturday's game against the Cavalier's offense will provide a good second test of the true strength of the Dukes' D.

JMU's Game Plan and Outlook

For Virginia, Saturday's game won't be just about football. This will mark their first home game since last year's tragic shooting that killed 3 UVA football players. To say that emotions will be running high is an understatement of epic proportions.

Emotional games like these can affect a team in two completely different ways. If you look at the game where Green Bay legend Brett Favre played a day after his father passed away, both he and the Packers played an amazing game, defeating the Oakland Raiders, 41-7. On the flip side, in 2001, Penn State's previously paralyzed player Adam Taliaferro ran onto the field while leading the Nittany Lions out of the tunnel for their season opener against the Miami Hurricanes. In watching that game, you could see that the Lions were emotionally spent and Miami soundly defeated them.

James Madison has the better starters in this contest, but one of the major factors that makes Power 5 schools superior to Group of 5 schools is depth. I think that may play a role in this contest, not in terms of winning but with regards to covering. This line has been moving interestingly. Opening at the aforementioned 4.5, it rapidly went up to 6, even 7 in most places, before dropping back down to the 6 it currently rests at.

I believe that the Dukes will be able to handle all of the emotions around the day and take care of their business. The strengths of this JMU squad are rushing and defense, and we're calling for them to lean on those to control the ball and limit the opportunities that an already weak Virginia offense will have. The one caveat is if the spread goes to 7.5, do not take it.

The Wager

James Madison -6 for 3 units

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