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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 13

by Joey House - 11/23/2023

Weekly mid major report James Madison predictions Week 7 Jordan McCloud

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sunbelt Conference in just their second year at the FBS level. This week's game against Coastal Carolina is the final game of the regular season, but hopefully not our last edition. Due to the ridiculous rules that exclude them from postseason play for the first two years, JMU is currently ineligible for the Sunbelt championship or a bowl game. However, there is a caveat that the Dukes could receive an invitation if there are not enough teams to reach bowl eligibility.

Currently, 70 teams, including another second-year program at Jacksonville State, have the required total of at least six victories. There are 41 bowl games, meaning 82 teams will receive invitations. An additional 24 teams are sitting at five wins with one more game to bowl-eligible. JMU's administration had contemplated legal action against the NCAA, but after last week's heartwrenching loss to Appalachian State, they decided against it.

Yes, the fairy tale came to an end, but not without a heroic effort by our beloved Dukes. Trailing all game and by double digits in the fourth quarter, JMU rallied to score a touchdown and the game-tying two-point conversion with 57 seconds left. After getting a field goal in their possession in overtime, the stout defense that had been the backbone of this team could not stop the Mountaineers from scoring a touchdown, and the perfect season ended with a score of 26-23.

The Dukes' final game of the regular season, and perhaps the year, takes place Saturday at Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina, as the 7-4 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers host No. 24 James Madison. The kickoff is set for 3:30 pm and will be televised on ESPN 2. The line is currently set at JMU -8.5, with a total of 49.5.

After Saturday's defeat, the men's basketball team can now claim to be the sole undefeated squad on campus. The No. 22 JMU cagers are 6-0 after defeating Fresno State in the Cancun Riviera championship.

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Coastal Carolina Offense

The Chanticleers offense had been led by arguably the most dynamic offensive player in Sun Belt history and 3-time Sun Belt Player of the Year, QB Grayson McCall. However, he suffered a massive concussion on October 21 in a game against Arkansas State and has been unable to return. Two different QBs have led CCU since then: redshirt senior Jarrett Guest (44-66, 696 yards, 7 TDs-2 INTs) and redshirt freshman Ethan Vasko (35-60, 326 yards, 3 TDs-1 INT). Guest started last week against Army and was effective (26-36 279 yards, 3 TDs-1 INT), but CCU lost 28-21 against a team with a losing record. The ground game has been running back by committee, as six different Chanticleers have over 200 yards rushing. Whoever CCU starts at QB will have the luxury of throwing to 6-year senior WR Sam Pinckney. With 60 receptions and 841 yards with 7 TDs, he's on track to set career bests in receptions and yards (71 catches for 996 yards last season). While not having McCall is obviously a huge loss, the offense is actually scoring more per game in his absence (against FBS opponents). They've averaged 28.5 points per game versus the 23.7 ppg with McCall at the helm. They did blast Duquesne 66-7 in the 3rd week of the season, but THOSE Dukes are still in the FCS.

Coastal Carolina Defense

The Chanticleers have also been good on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 21.8 ppg (41st in the nation). They have their own stud defensive lineman in true freshman Micheal Mason, who leads the team in sacks with six and tackles for loss at 9.5. CCU has allowed an average of 370.8 yards per game, with 201.3 of those coming through the air. The 1865 yards of rushing they have given up during the season become even more impressive after accounting for last week's game against Army. While the Cadets did rumble for 365 yards and 3 TDs, they did so on 62 carries and only TWO passes (one of which was intercepted). Talk about "throw-back football." Their secondary is firm, giving up 300 or more passing yards or three passing TDs three times this season. The Chanticleers are allowing their opponents 5.6 yards per play, which is 65th in the nation.

James Madison Analysis

As I said last week, the only thing stopping the Dukes was the NCAA's asinine restrictions. A little over a week ago, James Madison's administration and the Sun Belt Conference's offices petitioned to have the NCAA restrictions lifted. That petition was officially denied the request last week, and honestly, I think it affected the team a bit. While App State is a decent team, JMU just looked flat for the majority of the game, really until the last 5 minutes of the contest. It comes as no surprise that JMU goes as QB Jordan McCloud goes, and as such, he had one of his worst games of the season (27-46 289 yards, 1 TD-1 INT) and the lowest QB rating (114.3). However, when the team needed him the most, he came through in the clutch. McCloud orchestrated a 12-play, 75-yard drive in the final 3 minutes of the game that included a 4-and-18 conversion. The Dukes' running game was nonexistent, gaining only 61 yards on 33 carries. The loss of the All-American defensive lineman Jalen Green proves staggering, as for the second week in a row, the Dukes only had one sack to go along with just three tackles for a loss.

Betting Angles and Wager

After not having a snowball's chance in hell of hitting the over of 55.5 all day (15 points going into the 4th quarter), both teams combined for 25, putting it at 40, but more importantly, tying the game at 20-20. That included a late JMU TD drive AND the subsequent 2-point conversion. I was confident both teams would score a touchdown, putting it at 27-27 and guaranteeing an over. Even when the Dukes only scored a field goal, I was optimistic. However, it was not to be.

It will be interesting to see how the Dukes handled the adversity of losing for the first time this season. Certain teams bounce back, and others crumble. As I said previously, the disappointment from the NCAA finally got to the Dukes. Otherwise, I need help explaining the flat performance of last week.

In last season's meeting between these two schools, James Madison destroyed Coastal Carolina 47-7, outgaining the Chanticleers 502 yards to 183. This was with CCU's all-world QB McCall. Regardless, I look for Coastal to keep it closer and score much more, but ultimately falling to the Dukes in what could be the final game for JMU QB Jordan McCloud and possibly the head coach Curt Cignetti. There is no way that a coach at this level guides his team to an 18-4 record after being promoted to the FBS level and not getting a look from more prominent programs. Hopefully, for JMU fans, Cignetti will take one more shot with the Dukes at the newly expanded college football playoff format next year.

Since this could be the last wager of the season, I'm doing something completely new and betting a 2-team parlay of James Madison -8.5 and the over of 49.5. After finally getting into the black last week, I promptly reverted to the red and plan on changing that pronto.

The Wager

A 2-team parlay of JMU -8.5/OVER 49.5 3 units

Season Total

8-8 50.0%

-2.9 units (-$290)

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