College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 12

by Joey House - 11/15/2023

Weekly mid major report james madison predictions week 13 Joey Aguilar Appalachian State

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sunbelt Conference in only their second year at the FBS level. We will thoroughly analyze the Dukes' upcoming opponent each week and explore how we see the game playing out. Using local newspapers and inside sources for the analysis and Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System," we give you the tools to maximize your investment in this exciting Mid-Major program.

I remember the movie "The Program," starring the late, great James Caan as a college football coach of a school eerily similar to Florida State. The star middle linebacker of this fictional team, Alvin Mack, had a not-so-flattering name for the NC-double-*#$%! I recall that name whenever I talk about JMU's post-season eligibility restrictions. The school administration and the Sunbelt Conference have written letters asking for the post-season restrictions to be lifted. Hopefully, these entities will have more success than the Virginia politicians who lobbied the NCAA on JMU's behalf.

With the Dukes' demolition of the University of Connecticut last week, we're finally in the black in our betting and plan to stay there with two regular-season games left and hopefully some post-season action. JMU looks to continue their dream season this weekend as they host the 6-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers. The kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. at Showker Field and can be seen on ESPN+.

On the hardwood, after their massive over-time win at Michigan State, the Dukes have reeled off two more wins and currently sit at 3-0 and ranked 24th in the AP basketball poll.

FEAR THE DUKES!!!

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Appalachian St. Offense

App State's offense is almost a carbon copy of JMU's high-octane unit. They average 34.8 points per game, good enough for 22nd in the nation, one place higher than the Dukes' 34.3 ppg and 23rd ranking. The Mountaineers QB, Joey Aguilar, has completed 196-307 (63.8%) and 26 TDs to 7 INTs. That's also the exact touchdown-to-interception ratio that the Dukes' Jordan McCloud posted.

App State has a better-rushing attack, gaining an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 183.9 yards per game. Senior running back Nate Noel, the third-leading rusher in Appalachian State's history, was injured on October 10 against Coastal Carolina and has slowly been worked back into the offense. He had been averaging 24 carries a game prior to the injury. And after returning, in the last two games, he has averaged 11 carries. He did rack up 86 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown last week against Georgia State.

The Mountaineers' QB has done a spectacular job of "spreading the love," as seven different receivers have multiple touchdown receptions. The "go-to" target of choice for Aguilar is junior wide receiver Kaedin Robinson. He's hauled in 41 catches for 541 yards (13.2 ypc) and six touchdowns.

Appalachian St. Defense

The defense is the weak link of this talented team, as they give up 390 yards of total offense and 27 points a game. They're susceptible to the pass, allowing an average of 200.2 aerial yards a game. The Mountaineers played North Carolina very tough at the beginning of the season, falling 40-34 but covering a 19.5-point spread. They are tied at 28th in the country in sacks per game with 2.7.

Their rush defense can be porous at times as well, giving up an average of 190 ypg and two touchdowns. In a win against Southern Mississippi (48-38), the Golden Eagles rushed for 301 yards and four TDs. Of course, having Frank Gore, Jr as your RB like Southern Mississippi does, racking up impressive rushing statistics becomes slightly easier.

James Madison Analysis

The stupid NCAA legislation seems to be the only thing that can stop the Dukes. The Dukes covered a 24.5-point spread against Connecticut with ease. They also did it all through the air, only gaining 46 yards on 23 carries on the ground. JMU QB Jordan McCloud had a phenomenal day, going 33-37 (89.2%) and a career-high 457 yards and four TDs. That was the second consecutive week that McCloud tossed 4 TD passes. He has 2,800 yards and is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. He's played himself into getting an invitation to the NFL Cmbine, and I fully expect to hear his name in April in the Draft.

The poor rushing effort was slightly disappointing, but if anything, the non-use rested the running back room for the stretch drive. Neither of the two main backs carried more than eight times. Even McCloud, after rushing for 104 yards and two TDs the week before against Georgia State, had only eight carries. The way to attack App State's defense is through a solid ground game, which will open them up to play-action passes.

James Madison's pass rush was expected to drop off after losing All-American candidate Jalen Green, but the Dukes registered only one sack, the first time that has happened all season. Because of UConn's ineptness, this lack of disruption wasn't a factor, but that may not be the case in the upcoming weeks.

Betting Angles and Wager

This line opened at JMU -12 and has steadily dropped to -8.5. The total started at 55.5 and is now 56 in most places. This is a no-brainer. The loss of defensive star Jalen Green will loom large against quality opponents, such as Appalachian State. While UConn's QB Ta'Quan Roberson is very mobile, only getting to him once is unheard of for the Dukes' defense. App State's QB can put up big numbers, just like McCloud. This game should be a shining example of why people call the Sunbelt the "Fun Belt Conference." We'll look to add to our coffers by taking OVER 56 for 4 units.

The Wager

Over 56 4 units

Season Total

8-7 53.3%

+1.5 units ($150)

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