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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 10

by Joey House - 11/1/2023

Weekly mid-major report James Madison predictions Week 10 Darren Grainger Georgia State Panthers

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sunbelt Conference in only their second year at the FBS level. We will thoroughly analyze the Dukes' upcoming opponent each week and explore how we see the game playing out. Using local newspapers and inside sources for the analysis, and Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System," we give you the tools to maximize your investment in this exciting Mid-Major program.

A quote from the indomitable Yogi Berra often fits in any situation. Last season, JMU's first game as a ranked Top 25 team promptly resulted in its first loss. Last Saturday, when Old Dominion kicked a field goal early in the 4th quarter to cut the Dukes' lead to just three points, I instantly thought of Yogi's "It's like Deja Vu all over again." But JMU's defense stepped up and didn't allow the Monarchs past mid-field again and held on for the 30-27 victory.

This game was by far the Dukes' toughest challenge all season. Dating back to Nov. 5 last year, JMU had gone 10 games in which they gave up less than 100 yards rushing. That streak ended on Saturday as the Monarchs ran for 138 yards. However, JMU did limit the explosiveness of ODU's Kadarius Calloway, as the talented running back had 65 yards on 17 carries and one touchdown.

JMU's "Path for Perfection" now runs through Atlanta and the Georgia State Panthers. The game is scheduled for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday and will be televised nationally on ESPN2.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Georgia State Offense

The Panthers have a solid offense, averaging 415 yards and 30.4 points per game. They are powered by senior running back Marcus Carroll, whose 197 rushing attempts are tops in the NCAA, and 1,060 yards is the second highest amount. His 12 touchdowns put him in a 3-way tie for the second-most rushing touchdowns in the season. As a team, Georgia State gains 191.1 yards a game.

The Panthers have a 3-year starter at quarterback Darren Grainger, who has made solid improvement in accuracy, going from 58.6% last year to 67.4% this season. He's 151-224 for 1,789 yards, 12 TDs, and just 4 INTs. Their star wide receiver, junior Robert Lewis, is in the country's top 35 in both receptions (46), yards (658), and touchdowns (6). Both of these units are benefited by an offensive line that is tied with five other teams for the fifth-least sacks allowed at nine.

Georgia State Defense

On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers aren't nearly as impressive. They average allowing 401.5 yards and 25.5 points per game. Like JMU, Georgia State has a solid rush and relatively porous pass defense. They surrender 118.8 yards a game on the ground and 282.8 through the air. They have racked up 18 sacks and seven interceptions.

James Madison Offense

As the season has worn on, the Dukes have gradually started running less and less. They have failed to go over 150 yards of rushing in a game since Week 2 at Virginia. However, QB Jordan McCloud has proven equal to the task. He was 27-40 (67.5) for 340 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs last week against the Monarchs. The Dukes' wide receiving corps, a question mark going into the season, has answered the bell quite nicely. Seven different Dukes have hauled in a touchdown pass this season, led by senior Reggie Brown with 35 catches, 691 yards (19.7 ypc), and 6 TDs. While the two interceptions that McCloud threw ultimately didn't cost them too much, those are the types of mistakes that they need to eliminate to stay undefeated.

James Madison Defense

JMU's defense faced a stiff challenge last week, as they allowed 415 yards in total offense, the second-most of the season. Yet when the game was on the line, and the offense had difficulty moving the ball in the fourth quarter, the Dukes' D came through in the clutch—not allowing ODU to cross the 50-yard line after the Monarchs' early 4th-quarter field goal was pretty impressive. The prohibitive favorite to win the SunBelt Defensive Player of the Year, defensive lineman Jalen Green, continued terrorizing the opposing teams' quarterbacks, tallying another 2.5 sacks.

Analysis and Prediction

Teams need to play close games and test their mettle so they can gauge their ability. Each week, James Madison continues to show how impressive they are. We're at the point of the season where style points for wins are much less important than the wins themselves. Just like every team, JMU has its obvious strengths and weaknesses. The Dukes' Achilles heel is their secondary. Only two times has James Madison given up fewer than 225 yards through the air. Luckily for JMU, Georgia State suffers from the same affliction.

The spread for this game opened at six and has decreased to 5.5 across the board. The total started at 51.5 and has risen to 54 or 54.5. I see this as being another closely contested game. James Madison has yet to play a team this year so far with the ground capabilities of Georgia State. Part of the reason that the Dukes have such impressive statistics against the rush is that their opponents don't rush that often against them (30.4 attempts per game). That will not be the case with the Panthers. Unfortunately for Georgia State, they struggle mightily to stop the pass, and I look for McCloud to have a big day.

I believe that JMU will win another close game here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see their perfect season come to an end, and as such, I will be taking Georgia State with the 5.5 points for a small play.

The Wager

Georgia State +5.5 2 units

Season Total:

6-6 50%

-2.3 units (-$230)

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