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College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison (Season Preview)

by Joey House - 8/10/2023

James Madison Dukes college football season preview Devin Ravenel

With the start of the college football season only 18 days away, we'll be taking an in-depth look at a school a bit off of the beaten path and the radar of the general public, James Madison University out of the Sun Belt Conference. While schools like JMU may not have the glitz and glam of the Alabamas and Michigans of the world, often these mid-major programs are hidden gems of value. Because they don't garner the same amount of attention as the marque matchups, they simply aren't handicapped as thoroughly as the bigger schools in the country. A savvy investor can use this to his advantage to earn massive profits in smaller conferences. In college sports betting, size doesn't always matter.

Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

We will be releasing picks for James Madison games each week of the college football season here on Doc’s Sports homepage and tracking the results. We will be using Doc’s Sports Unit System for each and every prediction. We might bet the side, total or moneyline, or a combination of the three. If we think the odds are solid, we could pass for that week (we will still publish an article stating so). Our goal is to help you, the reader, earn a profit over the course of the season by zeroing in on a small school that doesn’t see a lot of action at the betting window.

Being just 20 miles from Harrisonburg, Virginia, I am lucky enough to have in-depth knowledge of the program but no biases as I did not attend there. I literally read about this program every day and as such, have a pulse on their heartbeat. I’ll be using all means at my disposal, from following daily beat writers to taking in a practice or two along with live game watching.

James Madison College Football 2022 Recap

The 2022 season for James Madison was, in every way, a historic season. It marked the Dukes' very first campaign as an FBS team. A long-time member of Division I-AA (which is now FCS), JMU had been a successful program, with two FCS National Championship trophies and 18 FCS playoff appearances.

After winning the FCS Colonial Athletic Association division in 2021 as their final year as a member, they joined the Sun Belt Conference in 2022. Because of NCAA rules prohibiting new members of the FBS division from playing in bowls, JMU was denied an opportunity to play in their conference championship, despite winning the SBC East with a conference record of 6-2 and an overall record of 8-3.

James Maidson Football: Coaching

Head coach Curt Cignetti is a solid coach with a wealth of experience. He played college at West Virginia in the late 70s and early 80s as a QB, sitting behind eventual NFL starter Jeff Hostetler. He coached at a variety of FBS programs, including a 3-year stint at Alabama as the WR coach and recruiting coordinator. He coached in Division II, as well as the FCS Elon and JMU from 2019 until today. His staff has been with him for multiple seasons, creating a coaching cohesion that amplifies the talented roster.

James Madison Football: Offense

Quarterback: The Dukes' offense is in a very similar position as last season when they were forced to replace a four-year starter who had gone 41-4 over his career. The QB that led JMU's offense in 2022, Todd Centeio, graduated and gives way to a group of former transfers. Cignetti is a bit of a "QB Whisperer". And while he hasn't named a starter yet, it looks as though it would be redshirt freshman Alonza Barnett. Cignetti praised Barnett during spring ball and has the dual-threat capability that Cignetti desires in his signal-callers.

Running Back: JMU loses their starting tailback, Percy Agyei-Obese, but returns two other backs who each had more than 300 yards rushing, as well as Ty'Son Lawton, a transfer from Stony Brook who has over 2,100 career rushing yards for the Seawolves. Despite losing the top rusher, Lawton is comparable, if not a slight upgrade, over Agyei-Obese. Their ground game, which averaged 186.7 yards per contest last season, shouldn't skip a beat.

Wide Receivers: Going into last season, James Madison's receiving corps had lost their top WR, who had 1,250 yards and 15 TD catches. While the passing yardage was slightly decreased, they still managed to have no fewer than seven different receivers haul in 10 or more receptions. This year they once again replace four of the top five receivers, returning only Devin Ravenel (24 receptions, 313 yards 7 TDs). They do have a bevy of transfers. And while they may be unheralded now, they will get plenty of chances to make a name for themselves.

Offensive line: In 2022, JMU returned three of five starting offensive linemen from the previous season. Even though they stepped up in classification to be a full FBS member, their offense increased its rushing yards per game by 28 yards per contest. The line allowed only 22 sacks, and the offense as a whole averaged 37.0 PPG. This year, they return four of the starting five from this unit and they have a total of 120 starts in the unit. It's safe to say the offensive line will be the highlight of this team and one of the best units in the SBC.

James Madison Football: Defense

Defensive line: The 2022 defensive line for the Dukes anchored a defense that was 23rd in the country in opposition PPG with 20.9 and second in the nation in rushing yards per game at 79.5. Their 1st-team SBC DE transferred in the spring, but this unit returns five of their top seven and gets a solid transfer in from Marshall. They may not duplicate their impressive season from 2022, but they will still anchor what should be a top-notch defense.

Linebackers: They returned only one starter a year ago, and the linebacking corps helped solidify a defense that allowed just 289 total yards of offense a game. This year, all three starters return. And with some quality freshmen, this unit looks even stronger than the previous edition.

Defensive Backs: Returning only one starter in 2022, the Dukes' secondary helped limit opponents to a 54.7% completion percentage and 210 passing yards a game, while forcing 11 interceptions. This unit returns eight of their top 10 and will provide superb pass defense for the Dukes' defense.

Special Teams

JMU returns place kicker Camden Wise, who connected on 11 of 16 field goal attempts, the longest coming from 44 yards. They are replacing their punter with a transfer from Arkansas State that averaged 43.7 yards per punt in 2022. They also return their all-conference kickoff returner Solomon Vanhorse, who played in only three games last season before being injured. This is another unit that expects to see improvement this year.

Betting angles

As they have only been in the FBS for one season, the betting records for James Madison University are brief, to say the least. To go along with their 8-3 SU record, they had a 7-4 ATS mark as well. They were 4-2 ATS as home favorites and 5-2 ATS off of a SU win. One potential matchup that could be favorable to the Dukes is their September 9 game at Virginia. They haven't met since 1983 when JMU was still a 1-AA (FCS) school, but UVA won only 21-14. Just 60 miles separate these two schools. And now that JMU is in the FBS, this could develop into a more regular game.

Conclusion

In their first season in the FBS, James Madison experienced unprecedented success. Only South Florida's 9-2 record in 2001 was better than JMU's inaugural campaign in the SBC. Sadly, they were unable to attend a bowl game because of some ridiculous NCAA rules. However, that doesn't prevent us from profiting from their success. While there is some turnover in the offense, their offensive line should pave the way for Cignetti's game plan. Their defense, which was impressive in 2022, could be even better. They play a full 12-game schedule, and 8-4 is a very attainable mark.

My major focus will be on their totals. The average totals in their 11 games last season was 54. The average score for JMU, however, was 37.0 to 20.9. As such, seven of their 11 games went over the total. Over the past seven seasons, JMU averaged 37.7 PPG on offense. I expect early season value in their overs, with the possible exception of their matchup with UVA.

Welcome to the Sun Belt Conference ladies and gentlemen, where defense is optional!

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