College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for Coastal Carolina (Chanticleers vs. UCLA)

by Matt Zitt - 8/30/2023

Mid Major betting report Week 1 Grayson McCall Coastal Carolina

Date: Saturday, September 2

Game Time: 10:30pm EST

Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

Spread: CCU +14.5

Total/Over-Under: 65.5

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The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers head to The Golden State for a Saturday night showdown with the UCLA Bruins in what should be an intriguing contest. As I stated in my season preview article, I will be digging in and analyzing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers this season with my goal of giving you, the reader, the best bets that will put some money in your pockets off this Group Five program. We will be using Doc’s Sports Unit System, which I will give a 1-8 unit rating per pick.

Head coach Tim Beck might be new to Myrtle Beach, but he inherits an experienced quarterback that can take on all the heavy lifting. Grayson McCall is back to lead the Chanticleers offense as the most decorated players in Sun Belt history. McCall is arguably one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the entire nation. He has thrown for over 8,000 yards, tossed 77 touchdown passes, and has only thrown a mind-boggling eight interceptions. Defenses must watch out for his scrambling as he has accumulated over 1,000 rushing yards and 17 rushing TDs. He also has a plethora of weapons to get involved that includes running back CJ Beasley and wide receivers Sam Pinckney, Jared Brown, and Tyson Mobley. CCU has won 31 games over the past three seasons and boasts a high-octane offense that can put points up on the board in a hurry.

The Bruins are led by head coach Chip Kelly, who has flipped UCLA’s script over the past several seasons. After turning Oregon into a National Championship contender year after year, his start to UCLA was not easy. He started his Bruins tenure going 10-21 in his first three seasons but has gone 17-8 over the last two years. The offense took massive strides in 2022, averaging 39.2 points per game. Kelly’s offense also ranked 4th in Division 1, averaging 503.4 yards per game. Ethan Garbers has been named the new starting QB for the 2023 season and has been in Kelly’s system for a few years. In 18 career games, he is 57-of-88 for 599 passing yards, four touchdown passes to four interceptions, and has completed 64.8% of his passes.

UCLA has also shown its capability of struggling against good Group of Five programs. The Bruins should have lost last year to Sun Belt’s South Alabama, but barely squeaked out a 32-31 victory. They have registered losses at home to Fresno State in 2018 and 2021, lost to Cincinnati to open 2018, and lost to San Diego State in 2019.

The total of this game needs to be attacked, with two above average offenses against two mediocre defenses. The Chanticleers allowed 31.8 PPG in 2022, which was ranked 111th in Division 1. CCU’s secondary was nonexistent down the stretch and heavily contributed to the team ending the campaign on a three-game losing streak. Throughout the team’s 13-game season, they allowed 283.6 passing yards against and gave up a 63.4% completion percentage. The Bruins’ defense was not much better, giving up 29 PPG which ranked 91st in college football. UCLA allowed over 270 passing yards a game, which is good news for McCall.

The Bruins cannot afford to take Coastal Carolina lightly, and I believe that they will. I will gladly put my faith in Grayson McCall over a new starting quarterback any day of the week. McCall has proven he can handle any situation and put the offense on his back. He is the best QB in the Group of Five and one of the top players in all of Division 1. There is value with Coastal Carolina getting two touchdowns, and the offense can keep them in this game until the very end. I would not be surprised if CCU wins outright. This should be a shootout where both offenses light up the scoreboard, which should be fun to watch in Pasadena.

Prediction: UCLA 41 – CCU 33

2-unit play on Coastal Carolina +14.5

1-unit play on the OVER 65.5

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