Weekly Las Vegas and Online NFL Football Contest Report
They’re playing for keeps tonight at Arrowhead Stadium, and sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online have Pick’em contests for you with millions of dollars up for grabs.
In the past five years NFL pick’em and Survivor contests have blown-up. The Circa Million and Circa Survivor has eclipsed the granddaddy of all NFL contests, the Westgate SuperContest, with $14 million in guaranteed money and no rake! That means 100% of the entry fees are returned to the customers in prize money. Meanwhile, DraftKings has returned to contest pools with their Main Event Pick’em, which offers customers in many states the opportunity to enter contests online without having to hire a proxy.
A few years ago, to remain competitive with the Circa Millions series, the Westgate Supercontest lowered their entry fee from $1500 to $1000. The contest features quarterly prizes and the famous mini contest, which takes place the last few weeks of the season. Meanwhile, CIrca Millions costs $1000 to enter, while DraftKings Main Event is $500. However, DraftKings features season-long pick’em contests ranging from $1 to $50,000.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
The difference between betting NFL games throughout the season and entering a season-long contest is very much like the difference in playing tournament poker and cash poker. Think rebuy vs no rebuy. Once the contest starts, you can’t rebuy into it unless you are playing the SuperContest reboot. As a result, you have to play a season long contest much differently than you bet an individual game. This is due to static lines (lines do not change due to betting handle) vs. dynamic lines (the number changes based on the betting handle).
This is exactly why these contests are difficult; you have to make picks with lines set on Tuesday for DraftKings, Wednesday for Supercontest, and Thursday for Circa Millions V. These lines are set in stone. And no matter what happens during the week, the lines stay the same. Once you enter your pick, you are locked in whether you got the closing line value or not. Hint: wait until the last moment to enter your picks.
What makes these contests so much fun, like a poker tournament, is that for the price of an entry fee you can have action all season long. Each week you pick five games against the spread and earn one point for a win, half a point for a push and no points for a loss. The entry with the highest number of points wins. If you can hit 65-70% over the season, you will most likely cash. Pretty simple, right?
New kid on the block Circa Sports has revolutionized the contest structure, offering quarterly prizes as well as prizes for last ($100k). A caveat is that picking losers is just as difficult as picking winners. This has forced the Supercontest to change their structure and offer more prizes throughout the season. Even so, you will see from the entry numbers below that Westgate Supercontest now lags far behind Circa Millions.
The DraftKings’ Pick’em pool is different from the Supercontest and Circa Millions V in that every game features the hook (half point), which means that there are no ties (push). Whereas in the other two contests you will get half a point toward the contest total score if you push.
I’ve listed the lines for DraftKings, Westgate Supercontest, and Circa Millions below with the latest contestant count in parenthesis. Sign-ups continue through Saturday September 9, so the entry numbers will go up from today.
When it comes to contest strategy, I urge you to never use a Thursday night football game since you have to put in all your picks at the same time. Which, of course, puts you at the mercy of stale lines (lines that don’t move), a lot can happen in football between Thursday and Sunday.
For instance in tonight’s KC Chiefs - Detroit Lions game there is a two-point differential between DraftKings (Chiefs -6.5) and Supercontest (Chiefs -4.5). The two-points reflects the fact that all-world TE Travis Kelce might not play tonight. Three days ago, this wasn’t an issue, which is why DraftKings had set -6.5 on the Chiefs, while the two other contests had -4.5. So, if you are shopping for the best number and you like the Chiefs, it would make sense to use the Chiefs in the Supercontest but avoid them in DraftKings.
In this season-long column, I will shop for value by looking at the three major contest lines and provide two of the five picks I am using in the contests each week and recap my record from the previous week.
So, where is the value in this week’s contest static lines? A few things I look for is contest line consensus and a line that doesn’t move over the first few days leading up to the weekend. Here’s two games I am using in week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New England Patriots
This number opened at the Eagles -5 but was quickly bet down to 3.5. Maybe because it’s Tom Brady day at the Razor on Sunday. DraftKings, Circa Millions V, and Supercontest all have Philly as a 3.5-point road chalk against the Patriots in their contests.
The popular trend is to play against the Super Bowl loser in their opener the next season. In fact, looking back to Super Bowl 46, the loser has been 7-4 SU, but just 4-7 ATS (the Bengals were upset by the Steelers in 2022). But overall, the loser trend is 4-19 ATS over the past 23 seasons.
Other than getting rid of the offensive coordinator by committee approach and bringing back Bill O’Brien as OC, the Patriots did little to help Mac Jones. While they picked up JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) and Ezekiel Elliot from the Cowboys, they drafted DT Bresee as the 29th pick and really did nothing else to help their skill players.
The Patriots scored 21.4 points a game last year and were ranked 17th on points scored last year and 26th in the league for total yards per game. Finally, The Patriots’ offensive line has been their achilles heel all summer. With injuries to Trent Brown, Mike Onwenu, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Conor McDermott, and Riley Reiff throughout training camp, A bright side for the Patriots was their defense, which was ranked 4th for total yards per play.
The Eagles come into Foxborough with a chip on their shoulder. I am still surprised they lost the Super Bowl last year. Even so, this team comes in relatively intact and healthy. Nick Sirianni has four stud running backs to choose from and arguably a top-3 QB in Jalen Hurts, who led the Eagles to a 14-1 record in games he started in last season while compiling 35 total touchdowns.
The X-factor in this game will be the Eagles’ pass rush against an anemic Patriots passing offense. First round draft pick Jalen Carter (DT) will be eager to get at Mac Jones, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him sack Jones or force a fumble.
I hate betting road favorites the first week of the season, but the play is:
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 in all contests.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The 49ers opened as a -2.5 point road chalk at the Pittsburgh Steelers and this line hasn’t budged over the summer and now it’s the number all contests are using. The big questions in this game are: How will Brock Purdy play coming off his elbow injury last year and will the Steelers be able to contain stud RB Christian McCaffery? And will all-world DE Nick Bosa play? This is going to be an old school battle in the trenches. And if you like smash mouth football, this game is for you.
McCaffery has been held to less than 50 yards running and receiving (or less) in three of his six season openers. You can bet TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and company will have something special prepared for the RB and fourth string quarterback. They will find out quickly how well Shanahan’s OL can deal with the pressure and open up running/passing lanes for the future Hall-of-Famer. Meanwhile, stud TE Kittle is listed as questionable for the 49ers, which will limit QB Purdy’s options if he doesn’t play,
Here is the X-factor. Darnell Washington. The Georgia rookie TE is bigger than any SF linebacker and secondary. The guy is a whopping 6’7’ 264 pounds and will be the red zone go-to guy. I don’t think the 49ers will stop him as he leads to a double-digit Steelers win.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 in all contests.
(4400 contestants)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) vs Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints (-3) Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Commanders (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears (-1) vs Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos (-3.5) Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) vs New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (-2) vs New York Jets
Westgate SuperContest Pick’em Lines
(1000 contestants)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) vs Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings (-6) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints (-3) Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Commanders (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears (-1) vs Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos (-3.5) Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs New York Jets
DraftKings Pick’em Lines
(801 contestants)
Detroit Lions (+6.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) vs Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
Houston Texans (+10.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers (+0.5) vs Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) vs Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) vs Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs New York Jets
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