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Week 1 NFL Props: Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Mike Allen - 9/6/2023

Week 1 NFL props Tony Pollard Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 in the NFL is rapidly approaching now after the time has seemingly crawled for the past month. If you're reading this, you have probably already placed at least one bet on the 2023 NFL season.

We have betting odds available of all sorts, and today, I want to talk to you about some of the most recent prop bets that were released for NFL Week 1 action.

First, let's talk a little about narratives. They are well known, especially the sportsbooks. So, it's hard to get value on a prop bet if you're betting with said narrative.

I feel more confident finding value in the narrative for Week 1 in the NFL than I would halfway through the season. One of the narratives we will follow today is strong teams with better defenses than their opponents focusing on establishing the run.

These teams also have quarterbacks who are in the midst of gaining their confidence back. I believe their head coaches will take advantage of Week 1 matchups with a game plan of run to pass and back to the run again to secure the victory.

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Week 1 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tony Pollard: +110

I love Pollard to go over his projected yard total for the season, as he averaged a full yard more per carry than any of his Cowboy teammates a year ago.

Ezekiel Elliott has finally taken his talents elsewhere. So, this does mean more pressure is on Dak Prescott as the scapegoats are disappearing? We know what the Dallas Cowboys offense is capable of doing, and the only thing holding them back last season was an inconsistent running game.

Pollard will bring back the confidence to get the five yards/carry that the team needs. Prescott needs it as well. The Cowboys project to have the best defense in the NFL this year, and they're loaded at virtually every skill position.

The door is wide open for Pollard to produce, and I love what he can do in Week 1 against the New York Giants. The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the league. They will have to get out to an early lead against Dallas if they want to compete, but I like the Cowboys to control 40 minutes of the clock, and hopefully, Pollard can find the end zone for the first of many touchdowns in 2023.

Week 1 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Nick Chubb: -145

The Cleveland Browns are home underdogs opposite their state rival Cincinnati Bengals. The narrative for this game is that Joe Burrow hasn't played any preseason games, and the Bowns are live for the upset.

DeShaun Watson can still drop the football in a bucket from 45 yards away. However, sticking to our narrative of defensive teams with quarterbacks getting their grooves back will lean heavily on the run.

Cincinnati is one of the stronger defenses we will be betting against today, but Nick Chubb projects for a career year, and I think the juice is worth it for him to cash a Week 1 prop bet ticket for us.

Week 1 NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer J.K. Dobbins: +100

You guys may have guessed this next pick. The Baltimore Ravens have been a defensive powerhouse for years, and it appeared they might be able to ride Lamar Jackson's style of play to a Super Bowl.

It turns out you need to be able to threaten down the field to compete with the best teams in the league.

While the Ravens are the biggest betting favorite in Week 1 playing the lowly Houston Texans, I still think the game plan will be safe, and they will run the ball to pass it.

Maybe that means they run more than expected with Jackson. That’s fine. It will only open things up for J.K. Dobbins. After his return from ACL surgery last season, he really showed out as the season closed.

I think he picks up right where he left off.

Dallas Cowboys Over 2.5 Touchdowns: -164

The Dallas Cowboys travel to MetLife Stadium for a Sunday night showdown with the New York Giants, and the two teams get to be the first to try out their new playing surface.

Hopefully, the new turf leads to lots of scoring, specifically by 'Dem Boys. Dallas has the best defense in the NFL, as we mentioned earlier, and that will lead to plenty of short fields. From there, Pollard will pound the ball between the tackles where the Giants are their weakest.

The linebackers will creep up, and soon, the safeties. Meep meep! There goes CeeDee Lamb over the top off of the play-action fake. Dallas can be a mess. And as much as I love to hate them, I have to keep it real.

They have a really talented team. They just can't ask too much of their current quarterback. Bet them to put the ball into the endzone at least three times.

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