Thursday Night Football Predictions: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

by Mike Allen - 9/19/2023

Thursday Night Football picks New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Deebo Samuel

Welcome to Week 3 in the NFL. I hope everyone is still in the green after a fun first two weeks of the 2023 regular season. If you're down a bit, that's okay. Hopefully, you avoided betting the over on Nick Chubb or Aaron Rodgers futures.

I feel that some NFL teams have had worse breaks than the average bettor. If you were on the San Francisco 49ers to cover on Sunday, though, you do have a pretty good argument. I was shocked to see the Rams kick a seemingly meaningless field goal at the end of regulation. Thankfully, we had LA teased up to 14 points. So, we were already celebrating.

The 49ers look like Super Bowl contenders already, though, and open up their season’s slate of home games against the New York Giants on Thursday night. The G-Men may have saved their season when they scored all 31 of their points in the second half to beat the atrocious Arizona Cardinals.

Will that second half of football provide the momentum needed to compete with the 49ers on a short week? Well, the betting odds are as wide as you might have guessed, but are they unplayable?

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Betting Odds

Giants @ 49ers Point Spread

San Francisco: -10.5 (-112)

New York: -10.5 (-108)

This is a wide line, but San Francisco has out-scored their first two opponents by an average of 15 points, and both opponents are superior to the New York Giants.

Spoiler alert: We are not putting our money on the underdog.

Moneyline

San Francisco: -615

New York: +475

This moneyline for New York looks tempting, but do you want to give your money away like that?

Point Total

Over 45: -110

Under 45: -110

The point total is tricky here, and we have such a wide gap in skill across the board that our play will be on the point spread.

Analysis

The odds of 10.5 points is a lot for any NFL game, but we have to keep in mind that one team is at least top three in the league, while the other, statistically, ranks in the bottom five.

We can't put too much stock in the stats, though, early in the regular season, but we don't have to. The eye test hasn't been the most confusing exam we have ever taken.

The home team usually gets three points from the sportsbooks. So, they are telling us that this is a touchdown game. I don't think so. Giants running back Saquon Barkley has an injured ankle, and he is currently listed as questionable for Thursday night's game.

I don't believe he will play because head coach Brian Daboll knows they don't have much chance of winning, and they don't want to add injury to insult. Even if he does, I don't think he will make much of a difference, because the Giants are likely to play from behind for the majority of the contest.

We need not complicate this matchup. I would put the San Francisco 49ers as my favorite to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the New York Giants were smoked 40-0 in Week 1. Then they "rebounded" by barely beating the team projected to be the worst in the NFL.

The word was that the Arizona Cardinals were tanking, and maybe they are. The team has lightened up their intensity as games have played out in the second halves. So, you can't put much stock in the one decent half of football the Giants have played this year.

The Niners pretty much beat the Rams by 10 on Sunday, and that was against a better team than New York. The Week 1 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh cannot be understated, either. They made them look really bad.

Prediction

From top to bottom on both sides of the ball, the 49ers have the Giants covered. New York could be without not one but two offensive linemen on top of this.

I cap this game at (-13) for the home Niners. So, break out your wallets, and let's ride this bandwagon to the bank.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

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