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Thursday Night Football Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints

by Mike Allen - 10/17/2023

Thursday Night Football predictions Alvin Kamara New Orleans Saints

We are already prepping for Week 7 of NFL action! It's been a fun ride so far, but most importantly, we are learning from our mistakes and improving each week.

There will always be plenty of ups and downs in your betting performance. However, as long as we are at least treading water and improving, the best is yet to come.

I heard a quote the other day from the late great Kobe Bryant. He was asked whether he was a player who loved to win or hated to lose. He replied with neither. The Mamba said he plays to learn and improve.

Just like Bryant is mentally prepared to lose, he is also mentally prepared to win. He doesn’t let himself get too high or low, because either can easily blunt your learning.

I would like to believe that we have gotten stronger as the year has progressed. Let’s put that to the test with this Thursday night’s game from New Orleans when the Saints host the banged-up Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Jaguars vs Saints Betting Odds

Point Spread

New Orleans: -3 (-115)

Jacksonville: +3 (-115)

I prefaced this with a mention of the Jags' injuries because I didn't want this betting line to throw you for a loop as it did to me when I first glanced at it. This line has moved considerably toward the Saints, as the news coming out of Jacksonville isn't great concerning the status of quarterback Trevor Lawrence's knee.

The latest news is that the MRI was negative, but his status to play on turf on a short week against one of the best defenses in the NFL is still up in the air.

That makes it pretty difficult to handicap this game, because Lawrence makes up at least 4 points of the spread.

Laying three on New Orleans is not something many bettors are lining up at the window to do. This team has been a disappointment this season, to say the least.

Moneyline

New Orleans: -155

Jacksonville: +125

If you must bet the Saints, I would stay away from the 3 points and just play the moneyline.

Point Total

Over 39: -118

Under 39: -102

This point total makes a lot of sense. The unders dominated the NFL this past week.

Jaguars vs Saints Analysis

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-2 against the spread this season and winners of three consecutive games. This is a road game played in front of a raucous crowd, but the trip is just an up-and-down from North Florida to the Big Easy.

The Jaguars' defense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but they are turning it around, and that side of the ball is looking better as the season progresses.

Turnovers have been key all year for Jacksonville. They got a ton last week against Indy, but the Colts were giving the ball away far too easily with Gardner Minshew under center.

Outside of the injury to Lawrence, this game comes down to statistics vs wins or wins against the spread. Statistically, the Jaguars are terrible. They rank 20th in yards per play on offense and 23rd in yards per play allowed on defense.

Then, how are they 4-2 straight up and 4-2 against the spread?

They are the least penalized team at just 35 yards/game and rank No. 1 in the NFL in takeaways. That's how they have done it. We have a large enough sample size to give them credit in these areas, but we could say the same about their statistics.

The New Orleans Saints are just 3-3 and have yet to cover at home. Their offense has struggled tremendously, and a rank of 26th in yards/play shows that. Their defense, however, ranks in the top five in the league in 3rd down %, yards/play allowed, and points allowed. They are in the top ten in denying teams touchdowns in the red zone, as well.

Jaguars vs Saints Prediction

The point total was 42.5, and that was quickly bet down to 39. So, we would need a game in the teens to cash a bet on the under.

It appears that ship has sailed. I’ll take the better team with the points in a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Jacksonville (+3)

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