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Thursday Night Football Picks: Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

by Mike Allen - 10/3/2023

Thursday night football picks for Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears Sam Howell

Last week, we improved our record on Thursday Night Football to 4-2 with a big win on the Detroit Lions moneyline of (-125). I felt great about this one, because I said in the article that Green Bay was not on their level.

While the Packers will have to scratch and claw for a potential postseason berth, the Detroit Lions are the clear favorites to win the NFC North. Another thing we did correctly was simply taking the moneyline.

Even though we projected a wide margin of victory, (-125) is not that much more expensive than (-110). So, we did the right thing.

A record of 5-2 on Thursday nights would be a great start. We do have our work cut out for us this week, though. We have no choice but to bet on the Chicago Bears or the Washington Commanders.

I got a tip from a friend on Sunday to play the Bears (+3). He said Justin Fields will have a good day. It was a great tip, but it ended up pushing. So, we got our money back. He did have a great game, but that was against a defense that gave up 70 the week prior.

The Bears will play host on a short week to the Washington Commanders, who looked pretty good themselves on Sunday in a close loss to the somehow still undefeated Philadelphia Eagles.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Let’s check the betting odds for this NFC matchup and make a pick!

Commanders vs Bears Betting Odds

Point Spread

Washington: -7 (-102)

Chicago: +7 (-118)

This one opened at some books, albeit briefly, at (-5.5) for the Commanders, and you can see what happened to that line. We are getting a few more bucks on the dollar at (-102) if we want to play Washington at (-7).

This one could make its way down to (-6.5) on the Commanders by kickoff. So, maybe you wait. With that said, if it goes the other direction to (-7.5), the ship has sailed.

That is why I want to attack this one right now. I think that if it does drop to (-6.5), it won’t be there for long and will likely get bet back up to a touchdown.

Moneyline

Washington: -300

Chicago: +250

What have the Commanders done this year to deserve to be (-300) betting favorites in an NFL road game?

They beat the Arizona Cardinals and the Denver Broncos by a combined six points. Then, they got smoked by the Buffalo Bills. Okay, we can let that one slide, and we mentioned they played Philly very close this past weekend.

That was their only good showing of the year, and it was a loss. The only reason the Commanders are 3-to-1 favorites is because they are playing the Chicago Bears.

Point Total

Over 44.5: -105

Under 44.5: -115

I am going nowhere near this. I don't like betting a total when both teams are this bad.

Analysis

Chicago is a terrible football team. The amount of drama they have on that team by Week 5 of the season is outlandish. They have serious legal allegations against a member of the coaching staff. Their star wide receiver Chase Claypool missed last week and this week simply because he wanted to.

He is on the trading block as we speak. However, from what I am reading, many top teams don't want that type of energy in their locker room. I don't blame them.

It is hard to make a case for either team here, but at least Washington has something to smile about. Quarterback Sam Howell had his best game of the year against the Eagles. The offensive line protected him well, and he returned the favor by not turning the ball over in over 36 minutes of possession time.

We will be in primetime, though, at Soldier Field. So, the crowd should be intense? Maybe if the Bears had won one or two games at this point in the season, but the fans know 2023 is toast.

As much as I want to fade the Chicago Bears, Washington remains an unproven team.

Commanders vs Bears Prediction

The Commanders have had not one but two chances already to win big against bad teams.

Will the third time be the charm?

The Bears are statistically a decent running team, and Washington is weak against the rush. If the Commanders keep a lead into the second half, though, it won't matter. Maybe we end up pushing with a 7-point win by the favorites, but it won't break my heart to get past these two teams unscathed.

Pick: Washington (-7)

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