Thursday Night Football Picks: New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

by Mike Allen - 12/19/2023

As we enter Week 16 of the 2023 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is finally taking shape in the NFC. We have three different teams that are 10-4, while the San Francisco 49ers are seemingly miles ahead at 11-3.

How about all of that Brock Purdy for MVP talk? How many NFL stars were favored above the Niner quarterback to win the MVP? There were 7 guys about a month ago, and he was a 16-1 favorite to win the award.

Now, he is the (-190), with the Baltimore Raven's Lamar Jackson coming in at (+450). We told you Purdy had the stats to match anyone at his position this year and that if his team were able to go on a run to finish the year, he would have just as good of an argument to win as anyone else.

San Francisco has the NFC West locked up as they are sitting 4 games ahead of the second-place Los Angeles Rams, who are currently 7-7 and will host the New Orleans Saints this week.

The visiting New Orleans Saints this Thursday night are also sitting at .500. However, they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South division lead.

That makes this Thursday Night Football game one of the biggest of the entire year. Let’s check the betting odds and make a prediction.

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Saints vs Rams Betting Odds

Point Spread

New Orleans: +4

Los Angeles: -4

At first glance, this line seems a bit wide. Yes, the New Orleans Saints are making the long trip out to LA. However, the home-field advantage in the City of Angels is one of the worst in the entire NFL and not improving anytime soon.

We also have to take into account which team is playing the better football. And that is without a doubt the Rams, who have won 4 of their previous 5 NFL games, while the New Orleans Saints have sputtered down the stretch and only have 2 wins over the same span.

Moneyline

New Orleans: +175

Los Angeles: -210

From what I am hearing, the pros are on the visiting Saints in this game. If you like the underdog in this spot, you have to take the 4 points, because you will be sitting on the right side of the biggest key number of all, 3.

With that said, I can easily see the New Orleans Saints winning this one outright.

Point Total

Over 46: -110

Under 46: -110

Saints vs Rams Betting Analysis

The Los Angeles Rams offense has been as advertised this season, and they are moving the ball exceptionally well over their previous three games, where they are averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, good enough for 3rd in the NFL.

LA is running the ball better than they have all season. This has been the catalyst to their late-season success. You don't have to take a ton of pressure off of quarterback Matt Stafford in order for him to start dropping dimes to Cooper Kupp and the bruising wideout Puka Nucua.

Conversely, the Saints are not establishing the running attack, whatsoever, only averaging a measly 3.3 yards per carry in their previous 3 contests.

Both teams have been airing it out with efficiency lately, though, ranking 6th and 7th in the NFL over the last 3 games in yards per pass attempt.

It’s when we look at the two defenses that we start to question the Rams. New Orleans allowed just 3.2 yards per play in their game last week and only 4.3 over their previous 3 games.

Priority No. 1 for the vaunted Saints defense will be to shut down the running game. From there, for them, hopefully, their skill players in the pass rush and secondary can make the difference.

Saints vs Rams Betting Prediction

I will take the visiting New Orleans Saints and the points.

Pick: New Orleans (+4)

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Thursday Night Football Picks: New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

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