Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Thursday Night Football Picks: Lions at Chiefs Week 1 Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/23/2023

Thursday night football picks Week 1 Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Chiefs

The Thursday Night Kickoff Game has become a tradition for the NFL. Since 2006, the league has played its first game on a Thursday, typically hosted by the defending Super Bowl champs.

As the Kansas City Chiefs look ahead to this upcoming season, two rings in two years is a tall task. With that said, the Chiefs are the current favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII at (+650). They welcome the Detroit Lions to Arrowhead Stadium on September 7.

Let’s check the Week 1 betting odds and make a pick for the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Kansas City Chiefs: -6.5 (-278)            

Detroit Lions: +6.5 (+225)

Over 54 Points: –112

Under 54 Points: -108

From what I gather to this point, the majority of betting tickets sportsbooks are receiving are for the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the 6.5. Most of the money, though, is flowing in on the Detroit Lions.

That means the public is on the Chiefs, and the sharp money is on the Detroit Lions.

Does this make sense? I believe so. Public money is normally narrative-driven, and Detroit failed to make the playoffs last season while the Chiefs won it all.

We don't have to dig all that deep to see that the Lions finished the year winning seven of their final 10 regular season games. That's a solid look for Detroit, but KC won 13 of 14 to finish the year.

That explains the moneyline betting odds for this game. (-278) is out of reach with more juice than most of us want to pay in Week 1 of the NFL season. The comeback on the Lions is (+225), which is tempting. We must refer above, though, to the Chiefs winning 13/14 games capped by a Super Bowl win against an excellent Philadelphia Eagles team.

What about the point spread? Should we simply follow the sharp money?

Exhibit A: The Detroit Lions are an astonishing 9-1 against the spread over their 10 games. In contrast, the Kansas City Chiefs are just 4-5-1 over their last 10, with a 2022 home record ATS of just 3-6-1.

That should tell us a lot about expectations in life. They typically lead to suffering. Hopefully, you weren't a Chiefs backer last season.

So far, the sharp money is clearly on one side, with small public tickets siding with the superior team. We also have a strong trend with the two respective teams' records against the spread last year.

Next, let’s break down the two teams from a statistical standpoint.

Neither of the two were short on offense in 2023. The big story was Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff’s surprise resurgence. One of my proudest moments was fading him and the LA Rams in their 13-3 loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.

Jared had one of the most explosive offenses in the history of the NFL that year, with 33 points scored per game, and he choked bad. Many of us thought we had seen the best of Goff. However, after playing in California his entire life, the 28-year-old has made a home for himself in the Motor City.

The Lions clicked last season on offense when they wrapped up the year ranked 4th in yards/play with 5.9. While impressive, this number still falls short of the Chiefs' 6.3.

Detroit struggled on defense, though, giving up 5.2 yards per play. That isn't nearly as helter-skleter as KC who gave up 6.2 yards per play, which was bad enough for worst in the NFL.

What was that popular saying again? Defense wins championships…

That brings us to the point total of 54. We have two of the best offenses and worst defenses playing early in the year with likely cooperative weather conditions.

Are we looking at a 30-24 Chiefs win? I believe both teams will score more points than that. Detroit managed to rank 5th in yards/pass last season, while their running game was mediocre ranking 15th in yards per rush.

That should improve this season with the addition of first-round draft pick running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

KC did improve on defense, but I don't expect them to be an entirely different squad on that side of the ball in Week 1.

That will keep the Lions in the game. I like Detroit with the points as well as the two teams to combine for more than 54.

Pick: Detroit (-6.5) and Over 54 Points

In Conclusion

The point total of 54 is a high number, but we are getting the highest-powered offense, who had the worst defense in the league last season, to play a Top 10 offense that filled a glaring gap at the running back position.

I understand that the market has adjusted to the Detroit Lions, but I will take the sharp money being on their side.

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Thursday Night Football Picks

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers