Thursday Night Football Picks: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

by Mike Allen - 9/26/2023

Thursday night football predictions Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Jordan Love

Another exciting week of pro football action is now behind us. We are approaching one of my favorite betting times of the year in any sport. I really like Weeks 4-8 in the NFL. If we are sharp, we can confidently stick some temporary labels on most of these teams.

From there, we can ride the wave until the sportsbooks and/or the betting market price them out.

What about the Dallas Cowboys, though? They were supposed to be a top-three team in the NFL, and they lost soundly to an Arizona Cardinals squad that was supposed to be tanking for the first pick in the draft.

Thankfully, we stayed away from that game. We did attack another double-digit betting favorite in Week 3's Thursday Night game, though. The San Francisco 49ers completely dusted the New York Giants, easily covering the 10.5-point spread.

This week’s NFL Thursday Night Football game will be broadcast from the not-so-friendly confines of Lambeau Field when the home underdog Packers host NFC North Division rival, the Detroit Lions.

Let’s check the betting odds for what looks to be a tight matchup and make a call.

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Betting Odds

Lions @ Packers Point Spread

Detroit: -1.5 (-110)

Green Bay: -1.5 (-110)

Both teams are coming off of victories, with the Detroit Lions looking more impressive in Week 3. They have been about as good as advertised if we're honest. The team is already 1-0 in Thursday Night Football this year as they took out the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead to kick off the season.

The Packers won last week against the New Orleans Saints, but it wasn't pretty, as they were dominated until Derek Carr went down with an injury. Credit to Green Bay, though. They came back from 17-0 in the 4th quarter to win 18-17.

It wasn't enough, however, for the sportsbooks to line them as home favorites, and it doesn't look like this betting line is going anywhere before kickoff.

Moneyline

Detroit: -125

Green Bay: -105

Every point counts in the NFL, and this is especially true in the NFC "Norse" Division. Shout out to Chris Berman.

If you like Detroit, then bet the moneyline. If you prefer a bet on Green Bay, take the 1.5 points. Losing is inevitable, but I prefer losses that I can swallow. Imagine betting the Packers on the moneyline only to watch a late field goal split the uprights for a 24-23 Lions victory.

Point Total

Over 45: -115

Under 45: -105

We have the 6th and 11th-ranked defenses here, respectively. I am not getting a read on either the over or the under. I want to break these two teams down statistically and play a side.

Analysis

Each squad may be 2-1, but on paper, these two teams are not on the same level. The Green Bay Packers are averaging only +0.1 yards/play more on offense than they are allowing on the other side of the ball.

That makes sense for what will probably be an 8-9 team by season’s end.

The Detroit Lions are putting up numbers so far that are likely to lead to double-digit victories fairly easily. They were a coin flip away from beating the Seattle Seahawks in an overtime game in Week 2.

The Lions are averaging 5.8 yards/play, which is good enough for 7th in the league, while their stingy defense allows only 4.6 per play, good for 6th in the NFL. The word balance comes to mind.

It's not that Green Bay is entirely out of equilibrium, though. They are just a level below the Lions. For the small price of (-125), we can bet the better team to win. I understand it's a rivalry game, the Lions will be playing away from their dome, and that they have injuries.

Prediction

Detroit has injuries, and the Pack may have people returning from being sidelined. Some signs point toward a Packer win. I can't deny that. It has been baked into the line, though, thus giving us the value we want to pull the trigger on the better team.

Pick: Detroit Lions Moneyline

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