Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 10/10/2023

We are just about ⅓ of the way through the 2023 NFL regular season, and the league is beginning to take form, not quite its final form, but we are getting there.

We have a pretty good idea of which teams are going to the playoffs and who isn't. Today's matchup is a perfect example of a bad team vs a good team.

The Denver Broncos have been fade-worthy for the entire season. Somehow, they were home favorites against the New York Jets this past weekend. We were all over that one. Denver lost again, dropping them to 1-4 on the year.

The Kansas City Chiefs are still a pretty good team and a potential Super Bowl contender in 2023, but they are a different team than we are used to seeing. The Chiefs are an under team this year and will probably win more games with their defense than their offense.

With that said, it's still Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce lining up against you. They are #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage, securing a first down over 50% of their tries.

In the past, KC didn't even need a lot of third-down conversions to win. Now they do, but that's okay because they clearly still have the skill and know how to move those chains.

That is obviously going to be an uphill battle on the road for the struggling Denver Broncos. Let's check the betting odds and make a solid prediction.

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Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Odds

Point Spread

Kansas City: -10.5 (-107)

Denver: +10.5 (-113)

The Denver Broncos couldn't stop the hiccups with a heart attack. Take away the 70-point showing from the Miami Dolphins, and this defense is still at the bottom of the league.

The Denver D ranks 32nd in yards/play, points/play, total yards, and total points allowed. Oh, well maybe they are better against either the run or the pass.

No. They rank 32nd in yards/rush and yards/pass allowed!

The offense is led by Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton, though. Their statistics for yards per run and yards per pass are actually pretty good, ranking 4th in rushing and 9th in passing in the NFL.

A big part of this is teams letting them move the ball in the 2nd halves to milk the clock. There was some of that, but we have to mention their strength of schedule also. The Broncos have only played one playoff team, and they gave up 70.

The team stinks, and I have zero faith in them to excel in any way.

Ten points and the hook is typically pricey for a division rivalry. It sure beats the moneyline, though. We are going to skip right over that.

Moneyline

Kansas City: -600

Denver: +460

Point Total

Over 49: -108

Under 49: -112

This one is tricky. If the Kansas City Chiefs are going to look like the KC of old for a night, it's likely going to be this Thursday against the worst defense in the NFL.

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Analysis

This mismatch could quickly turn into a drinking game if it gets ugly. Every time the broadcast shows Taylor Swift, we all take a shot of our favorite liquor.

Actually, scratch that. I googled alcohol poisoning, and we would all be in rigor mortis before halftime.

We didn't let the hook scare us away from betting the 49ers to wax Dallas. I am not going to let them scare us here either. If we aren't afraid of the Cowboys, why be concerned about the Broncos?

The only situation where Denver is statistically better is their ground game against the run-stopping ability of the Chiefs. The Broncos actually rank 4th in yards/rush, while KC is 23rd in the league in yards/carry allowed with 4.3.

Denver may put the Chiefs in several 3rd and medium situations. However, remember what we said earlier. KC is the best in the league on 3rd down. The Broncos need the lead in the 2nd half to have a chance, but I think Patrick Mahomes has a field day, and Denver will be forced to play to their weakness with mostly passing situations.

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Predictions

Give me the double-digit favorite and the hook! If they were on the road and maybe gassing out in the thin air down the stretch, I might…

Who am I kidding? I'm not putting my money on the Denver Broncos at this point. KC should put up at least 30 here and maybe 40. Denver might get to 20 points. I love the edge we have here with the Chiefs.

Pick: Kansas City (-10.5)

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