Thursday Football Picks: Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 11/20/2023

In the second of three divisional rivalry games on Thanksgiving, the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys will play host to the Washington Commanders.

Washington is coming off of an embarrassing loss at home to the New York Giants. That came after a spirited performance and close loss on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. I guess that one took the wind from the Commanders' sails.

That appears to be the case. So, what will they have for the Cowboys in Dallas on Turkey Day?

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Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Odds

Point Spread

Dallas: -11 (-110)

Washington: +11 (-110)

It doesn't look like much. The Dallas Cowboys opened as 9.5-point favorites and have since taken a whopping 94% of the money, pushing them up to 11. If you took the Cowboys this past Sunday to cover against Carolina, you were rewarded. They tranquilized the Panthers, 33-10.

Imagine betting on Washington to cover on Sunday against New York. Deciding between two bad teams is hardly ever a play that I seek out.

The Commanders have been able to run the ball this year. However, unfortunately for them, that is the only bright spot. Quarterback Sam Howell has great stats, but they still rank near the bottom of the NFL in yards per pass attempt.

Defensively, Washington is 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game and 28th in the league in yards per play allowed.

Moneyline

Dallas: -550

Washington: +430

I imagine the Commanders will be able to get up for this game. However, I feel the same way about the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas is historically successful on Thanksgiving. They have a record of 33-22-1 on Turkey Day.

Some of my first memories of football on the final Thursday in November were of the Dallas Cowboys. I remember the legendary Larry Allen chomping down on his celebratory turkey leg while the late great John Madden made us all feel like we were right where we were supposed to be.

Point Total

Over 48: -110

Under 48: -110

Both of these squads are over teams, but this is a very short week. I would slightly lean towards the under just because it's on a Thursday. That is the first meeting between the two this season. It is tough to get a read on the point total.

Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Analysis

The Cowboys have been a fairly easy team to predict. Yes, hindsight is 20/20. However, if we are honest, they are the same team they have been since most of us can remember.

Ever since their last Super Bowl win, if they have a good team, which they do this year, they lose to the best teams. Then, they usually beat the brakes off of inferior squads.

This Thanksgiving Day game, though, is set to kick off at 4:30 Eastern. As popular as these two teams are, I'm sure there will be millions of people at least checking their phones for the score while at the dinner table, if not running into the other room.

I had a feeling but, I did look, and yes. The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in interception percentage. They are picking off nearly 4% of opposing quarterbacks' passes. That is outstanding.

Guess who relies on the pass more than any team in the NFL? Yes, the Commanders throw the football more than anyone and rank near the bottom of the league in interceptions thrown percentage.

Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Prediction

The Cowboys are the far better team, and they are playing exceptionally well at the moment. If this were a regular Sunday, maybe they somehow sleepwalk into it. However, this game is huge. If the Eagles fall to the Chiefs, 'Dem Boyz will only be a game back with a rematch in Dallas on deck.

Maybe we fade Dallas next Thursday night against the Seahawks, but I have them beating Washington 31-17 on Thanksgiving.

Pick: Dallas (-11)

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Thursday Football Picks: Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

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