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Thursday Football Picks: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

by Mike Allen - 11/20/2023

Thursday Night Football picks for Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Jordan Love

Unfortunately, the NFL couldn't provide us with any action for Halloween, but that's okay. They are making up for it this Thanksgiving with not one, not two, but three games.

These aren’t just any three games, either. We are treated to divisional rivalries in each matchup.

The first of the day will be kicking off at 12:30 Eastern from the Motor City, as Coach of the Year betting favorite Dan Campbell and his Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers. The Lions are leading the NFC North by 2.5 games over the Minnesota Vikings and a full 4 games ahead of the Packers.

Minus the egg they laid against the Baltimore Ravens, the Detroit Lions have been quite impressive. Their only other loss was in overtime against a solid team in the Seattle Seahawks.

This is a tough spot this week against the Green Bay Packers, however.

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Packers vs Lions Betting Odds

Detroit: -7.5 (-110)

Green Bay: +7.5 (-110)

The Lions had an incredibly emotional, down-to-the-wire comeback win on Sunday. Now, they are laying more than a touchdown against a division rival. I see that most of the early money has come in on the Lions.

This is obviously a big game. It will be watched by millions of Americans while they wait to engage in our nation’s second favorite pastime.

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears had them right where they wanted them this past Sunday. A dynamic duo at running back, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jared Goff had other plans. The QB had thrown three interceptions already. However, he still had the confidence to lead his team back with multiple scores.

So, we fade the Lions here. We are taught to bet against a team who is coming off of an emotional comeback win into a game as a big favorite.

Here's the problem with taking that approach in this game, though. The Green Bay Packers may not have come back from two scores, but their contest with the LA Chargers went down to the wire, with the Packers coming out ahead.

Moneyline

Detroit: -350

Green Bay: +280

It isn't any secret who the better team is here, but the trends all point toward this game being a tight one. A (+280) win would be a great way to start the day. Hopefully, you enter a food coma by the final game. That way you can hang on to most of your winnings.

Point Total

Over 45.5: -110

Under 45.5: -110

The Green Bay Packers are 4-6 this season, but they are even with their opponents overall with a points for and against stat of 202-202.

On a very short week, this one is likely to go under.

Packers vs Lions Betting Analysis

Jordan Love has shown some nice touch and a bit of a Mike Vick-flick to his throws. Vick could whip it harder and faster than anyone, but he always struggled with that nice touch. I think that is one thing Love may have on Goff as well.

The latter is the better player, but I dig Love's ability to burn teams over the top. The Lions have been susceptible to this, ever since veteran safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson went down with a nasty torn pectoral muscle.

The problem for the Pack, in my opinion, will be running the ball. They lost Aaron Jones to a knee injury on Sunday. The word is that he likely avoided a major injury. However, on a short week, I wouldn't expect him to play.

Even if he plays, a hampered first-string running back is not that much better than a fresh second-stringer. I would take the latter more times than not if I'm honest. That backup is AJ Dillon, however. He ran the ball 14 times in a close game against a porous defense and managed a measly 29 yards.

Packers vs Lions Betting  Prediction

I went into this wanting to take the Pack and the points, but we have already seen these two teams play, and the Lions won comfortably by two touchdowns.

Is it a better game this time around? I think so. The short week could shake things up.

Their first meeting back in late September was 27-3 at halftime, though. We can't ignore this. There is the possibility of a late backdoor cover, but Love will have to beat them with intermediate throws, which are not his strength.

Pick: Detroit (-7.5)

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