Sunday Night Football Predictions: New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills

by Mike Allen - 10/11/2023

Sunday Night Football picks New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills Josh Allen

We got a big win this past Sunday night with the 49ers (-3.5). They bent the Cowboys over their knee that night. I can't sit here and tell you I thought it was going to look like the mismatch it did, but we said the Cowboys weren't on their level.

Speaking of levels, our Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Giants has blowout written all over it.

Or does it?

I have a funny feeling about this week in the NFL. It’s just about that time that many of us are starting to solidify who is good and who isn’t in our heads. There are also a lot of shady matchups.

The betting odds are pretty wide for this one, as you might expect. Let's look and see where we can find the best value for this Sunday night game in Buffalo.

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Giants vs Bills Betting Odds

Point Spread

Buffalo: -14 (-112)

New York: +14 (-108)

Most guys who know what they're talking about in this NFL handicapping/betting business will tell you that double-digit favorites reside in the no-go zone. That is obviously for good reason. You burn your hand on the stove once or twice, you don't do it again.

We faded the Giants hard when we took the 49ers over them at (-10.5). I am not against going back to this well with the Buffalo Bills. When they win, they are usually winning big.

Think about how good they looked against the Miami Dolphins. If that team shows up, they will cover the two touchdowns pretty easily.

Moneyline

Buffalo: +800

New York: +580

Point Total

Over 44.5: -110

Under 44.5: -110

If the point spread is too much for you and you’re the type of person who believes rules are rules, I completely understand. Play the over 44.5. I think the point spread may have more value, though.

Giants vs Bills Analysis

The biggest storyline for this game is possibly a point-changer. New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll has come a long way to get to this point in his career.

After playing safety for the University of Rochester, he found his way down to the College of William and Mary in Virginia and worked as a volunteer assistant coach. One year later, he is working under Nick Saban at Michigan State.

Fast forward two years, and he's working under Bill Belichick in New England. From there, it took a while for him to get his first crack at being a head coach, but boy, was it a fun ride!

Five Super Bowl rings later in 2022, the New York Giants decided to take a chance on a proven winner. He didn’t disappoint and won the AP Coach of the Year for the NFL.

His last stop before the big city was upstate in Buffalo, New York. He learned quite a bit about quarterback Josh Allen and taught the kid a lot. Daboll has downplayed how much this prior knowledge could potentially help him and his team, but that's to be expected from someone in his position.

If he doesn't have his starting left tackle, though, his quarterback Daniel Jones will be in for a long day. With that said, it is the Bills who are far more banged up, especially their defense.

Giants vs Bills Predictions

Brian Daboll is a good coach. He knows Allen well. I get it.

I also get this, though. New York ranks 32nd in yards/play, 31st in yards/play allowed, 31st in defense sack %, and Jones gets sacked more than 15% of the time!

Oh, and Buffalo's sack % on defense is you guessed it, 1st in the NFL. They are going to terrorize that rich young man.

It's a much bigger number than the (-3.5) on the Niners last week, but the sportsbooks are trying to scare the sharps away. Maybe they do. Not me, though.

I will take the Buffalo Bills to cover the massive spread.

Prediction: Buffalo (-14)

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