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Sunday Night Football Predictions: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

by Mike Allen - 9/12/2023

Sunday Night Football picks Miami vs. New England Jaylen Waddle

Will NFL teams in 2023 have an answer if Tua Tagovalioa consistently hits Tyreek Hill in stride?

You can't play the whole game in a "prevent defense." Therefore, you have to apply steady pressure to the quarterback. That is far easier said than done, though, when the quarterback is the most dynamic at his position in the league.

Tagovailoa is so much fun to watch. And when he is on, there isn't a better thrower of the football playing today. He has been inconsistent, however, but this has primarily been because of inexperience and injuries. Both have subsided by the start of the 2023 NFL regular season.

Can Tagovailoa put it together for an entire season, though? Time will tell, but we can't deny this. He has shown improvement every year of his career. Entering his 4th season with the Miami Dolphins, expectations are higher than ever, and the Hawaiian-born star didn't disappoint in Week 1 as he led his team to a shootout win opposite Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

If anyone can devise a game plan to shut down the high-powered Miami attack through the air, it's Bill Belichick. The long-time Patriots head coach and defensive mastermind needs no intro.

His team fell short at home in Week 1, however, losing 25-20 to the Philadelphia Eagles. They did play pretty well against the defending NFC champs, but Philly didn't play their starters for the entirety of the preseason. So, they were a bit rusty.

Let’s check the betting odds for this week’s AFC East showdown, determine the play with the most value, and make a pick!

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Betting Odds

Miami Dolphins: -2 (-117)

New England Patriots: +2 (-102)

Firstly, we must note that if we want to take the Miami Dolphins minus two points, we might as well play their moneyline of (-140). If the betting favorite is just 2 points or less, take the moneyline. That is a rule you should almost always follow, even if you think your team will win by double digits.

It’s hard enough to win in sports betting. It’s even more difficult to make money long-term. Let’s not allow greed to bring us down.

Over 47.5: -110

Under 47.5: -110

There is a lot of chatter already about this point total. Some people are projecting this betting line to be north of 50 by kickoff on Sunday night. Do we avoid predicting a winner and go with the over 47.5?

There are a lot of confounding factors that make it difficult to rate each team solely on their Week 1 games. We don't truly know if Miami can consistently run the ball, because they didn't have to. Yes, the Pats played the Eagles tough, but Philly was still rusty. They only played their backups in the preseason.

Tagovailoa wasn't sacked at all last week, but he will have one of the nastiest defensive lines potentially selling out in the pass rush if Miami can't get anything going on the ground.

If you want to follow the market and play the over 47.5, you can, but there is another play I prefer in the NFL's Week 2 Sunday Night Football game.

Moneyline

Miami Dolphins: -140

New England Patriots: +120

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Analysis

The New England Patriots played well in the second half against the Eagles and almost took the victory. The Miami Dolphins, though, appear to be unstoppable over the top in the passing game.

Tagovaioa doesn’t just have Hill. Jaylen Waddle is another All-Pro-level guy lining up out wide. Even if New England controls the ball and the clock on Sunday night, Tagovailoa will likely have a chance to win it late with his stellar arm.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Prediction

If the New England Patriots showed us that they can dominate in the running game, or at least that they believed in their running game, I might pick them. They didn’t, though. They never gave the ground game a chance and were pick-six’d early because of that.

The Dolphins aren't that strong on defense, but this team has the uncommon ability to pass-to-run, and I love that late in the game if needed. The Miami Dolphins get the win on the road 28-24.

Pick: Dolphins Moneyline

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