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Sunday Night Football Picks: Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles

by Mike Allen - 10/19/2023

Sunday Night Football picks Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles Tyreek Hill

It is Week 7 in the NFL, and we have one of the biggest games of the season on Sunday Night Football between two division leaders as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Miami Dolphins.

Both of these teams are tied atop the NFL with three other teams for the best record at 5-1. I don't know if I am sold yet, however, on either team being elite. Both squads have about a 90% chance of making the playoffs, but their respective division crowns are still up for grabs.

The Miami Dolphins have been a lot of fun this year. That is true unless you had them in a teaser like I did when they lost 48-20 to the Buffalo Bills. I learned a lot about the Dolphins that day. They aren't quitters.

Even though they gave the game away against the New York Jets this past weekend, the Eagles know how to win. They haven’t been dominating teams they probably should so far this year.

Neither team's schedule has been that difficult to this point. The Eagles beat the Bucs and the Rams on the road, but close games against the Commanders and Patriots are preventing the market from betting getting behind them.

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Dolphins vs Eagles Betting Odds

Point Spread

Miami: +2.5 (-104)

Philadelphia: -2.5 (-116)

As you can see, the Eagles are just (-2.5) at home, which means this game is about a pick’em on a neutral field.

The big question on everyone's mind is can the Eagles do what the Bills did to the Dolphins? As I compare the numbers for Philly and Buffalo, I can't help but be impressed by the balance of Philadelphia.

More on that in a moment.

Moneyline

Miami: +110

Philadelphia: -130

You should know the drill by now with these closely-lined games. If you like the betting favorite, take them on the moneyline. If you like the dog, take the points.

Point Total

Over 51.5 (-115)

Under 51.5 (-105)

This one is hard for me. I have been one of those public pugilists punching himself in the face betting overs this year. As you have probably picked up on, point totals are down in 2023. We have a fresh wound also after taking the Cowboys vs Chargers game last week to go over 51.

Here we are sitting at 51.5. The markets have adjusted to all the unders hitting. Virtually every other point total on the board this week is very low compared to this one. There are even a few games with totals in the 30s.

Dolphins vs Eagles Analysis

The Eagles offense ranks 9th in yards/rush and 7th in yards/pass. They are undoubtedly a running team, though, ranking 30th in the league in pass attempts per game. One might argue that this shows imbalance. However, when you run a lot more than you pass, it is out of choice and/or because you're winning.

The Dolphins may pass the ball more than they run it, but they still have the highest yards/carry in the league. Their offense is a lot to deal with for anyone.

Miami is averaging 8 yards/play on offense. The Bills are second with 6 yards/play, a full 2 yards difference! To put that into perspective, the margin between the Bills and the Giants at the bottom of the league is just 1.9 yards/play.

The Eagles have a stout defense, though, and just as balanced as the offense. They rank 6th in the league in yards/rush allowed and 8th in yards/pass allowed. Where the Eagles' defense has faltered is 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone, where the defense ranks about 25th in the NFL.

This game could play out a lot like the Dolphins' game against the Bills. It could be a track meet. The Eagles could bounce back strong from a disappointing loss last week, and Miami could be riding a bit too high after beating up several crappy teams in a row.

Dolphins vs Eagles Prediction

Both of these teams are terrible in the red zone. Philly has given up 28 points twice this year. It is hard not to project the Dolphins anywhere lower than 30.

The Bills put up 48 on Miami, and the Dolphins are giving up an average of 26 points a game. A top-ten balanced offense should eclipse that mark.

Prediction: Over 51.5 points

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