Sunday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

by Mike Allen - 9/26/2023

You know what the NFL was trying to do in this primetime Sunday Night time slot, and I believe it would've been a very competitive game had Aaron Rodgers not succumbed to an Achilles' tear.

The Jets are built around Rodgers. And with him gone for the season, they are left without an identity on offense. Zack Wilson just isn't the guy.

Fortunately for New York, though, they still have a high-level defense.

I can't help but imagine that those defenders will be worn down by the 4th quarter. The last two weeks have been abysmal for the Jets' offense.

The Kansas City Chiefs have surprisingly been led by their defense through the first three games of the year. Some are shocked by this, but it's been happening for a while. Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense did get it going last week, though, racking up 31 first downs with 300 yards through the air and 150 on the ground, albeit against the abysmal Bears.

We are undefeated on Sunday Nights this year after the Pittsburgh Steelers showed us they are at least a better team than the Raiders. Let's check the betting odds for this week and keep that rolling.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Betting Odds

Chiefs @ Jets Point Spread

Kansas City: -9.5 (-118)

New York Jets: +9.5 (-102)

We can get right to it. The New York Jets aren't going to consistently move the ball against this Kansas City defense. New York ranks 31st in yards/play, while the Chiefs' defense is 5th in yards/play allowed.

I don't think they are scoring more than 10 points. Now, can KC put up 20? Well, they haven't scored fewer than 17 since the middle of the 2021 regular season. They also lost that game and were beaten by Travis Henry.

The Tennessee Titans were built around Henry on offense and still are. As we alluded to earlier, the Jets are not designed to play like that. Kansas City will have many more possessions. I do like the (-9.5) for the Chiefs.

Moneyline

Kansas City: -440

New York: +360

Is Zack Wilson going to beat Patrick Mahomes? Of course not, and KC's moneyline is clearly unplayable. I wouldn't recommend putting the Kansas City Chiefs ML in a parlay, either.

A parlay leg should only be considered if you would bet the team straight up. How much value does a (-440) favorite truly add to your potential parlay? Not much at all.

This rule keeps the bettor honest and the parlay ideas to a minimum. One fewer loss is better than one more win.

Point Total

Over 42.5: -105

Under 42.5: -115

This number was up around 45, and that did not last long. This game does look like it is going under. That ship may have already set sail, though. I believe we have more value on the point spread.

Analysis

Kansas City was a better team than the New York Jets at the beginning of the season, and they certainly are now!

The Jets are probably debating whether they should pack it in for the year or not. Do we sign Andy Dalton and shoot for 7-9? The outlook for the 2023 season will soon turn into a lot of inward looks as the losses begin to pile up for New York.

The Chiefs rank 2nd in the NFL in points/play allowed. We already stated that the Jets aren't going to have many plays on offense. They will likely be trailing for most of the game. I hope so because if they aren't, we definitely aren't covering.

In all seriousness, though, KC is a well-coached veteran team led by the highest-paid quarterback in the history of the NFL. Their defense hasn't been playing this well in years. And with tight end Travis Kelce back at full strength, the Chiefs will continue to dial it in on the offensive side of the ball as the year progresses.

Prediction

I can see the Jets keeping this one within one score by halftime, but the fast twitch muscles of the New York defenders will toast.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

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