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Sunday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers

by Mike Allen - 10/4/2023

Sunday Night Football picks for Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Dak Prescott

We received our first loss of the season on Sunday Night Football this past weekend when  Patrick Mahomes decided to slide down after the first down marker but before the end zone.

It was a smart play because they could run the clock out, but what about the fans that bet you to cover the spread?

What about us, bro? The game was close for a while, and I was happy, in a way, for quarterback Zach Wilson, because he has taken far too much blame from the New York media. It was everyone's favorite pile-on moment of the week.

We made a couple of bad bets last week, but I would play the Chiefs (-9.5) again. It took a weird game and a strange ending to keep us from cashing.

This week, we have a fun showdown of NFC powerhouses. The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers have one of the most underrated rivalries in the NFL. They aren't in the same division, of course, but it seems like the two teams are always playing a meaningful game in competition for the conference crown.

They are currently 19-19-1 against each other in head-to-head matchups. The fight for 20 begins on Sunday Night Football. Let’s check the betting odds and make a prediction for the 49ers and the Cowboys.

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Cowboys vs 49ers Betting Odds

Point Spread

San Francisco: -3.5 (-110)

Dallas: +3.5 (-110)

I could only find one (-3) for the favorite 49ers, and there are some (+4) betting odds out there on the underdog Dallas Cowboys if that's what you want.

For most of us, though, we have to deal with the hook with the three points. Dallas has faltered once this year, but does that make them less likely to choke than the Niners, who have more or less cruised to their record of 4-0?

Moneyline

San Francisco: -180

Dallas: +160

I am not paying the juice on San Francisco here to win outright. The number on the Dallas Cowboys isn't bad, though, at (+160) if you want a moneyline bet.

Point Total

Over 45: -113

Under 45: -107

Both teams have excellent defenses but are also incredibly explosive on the offensive side of the ball.

I’ll stay away from the total in this one.

Cowboys vs 49ers Analysis

The two teams were similarly built, as we just alluded to. So, let's focus on their differences as we attempt to nail down the best betting value for this Sunday Night matchup.

Each team is strong on both sides of the football but they probably still led by their defenses. The Dallas defense ranks 4th in the NFL in both third down conversion % and red zone conversion %, while the Niners D sits at 20th and 23rd in the league in those statistics.

I wouldn’t put too much stock into this. San Francisco has won all four of their games comfortably.

Digging a bit deeper, though, we find that the Niners D ranks third in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game at just 66, while the Boys allow 4.6 yards/carry. That last stat is "good" enough for 27th in the league.

That is not a good look against Christian McCaffrey, who heads up an elite ground attack that averages 4.6 per carry. If San Francisco averages 4.6 yards/carry on Sunday night, I believe they win the game.

The Dallas offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards/attempt, while the Niner pass defense is elite. San Francisco also uses their running game to set up the pass, and Brock Purdy is averaging 8.8 yards/attempt. That is good enough for 2nd in the NFL.

The Cowboys have forced a lot of turnovers this season, though. They are No. 1 in the league in this stat. I just don't know how much I buy into a stat like this so early in the season. It's almost like it makes a team look worse than they are. The stats back this up, as you can see.

Cowboys vs 49ers Prediction

These are two very good football teams. I think the 49ers might be on a different level, though.

They are talking about this game being the most-watched regular season matchup for the entire season. The Niners have the better quarterback, running game, and a more sound defense.

The Cowboys could change this game very quickly if they win the turnover battle, but if not, I think San Francisco separates themselves from the Dallas Cowboys in front of the home crowd.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

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