Sunday Night Football Predictions: Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos

by Mike Allen - 11/14/2023

Both the Vikings and the Broncos are making strong moves towards playoff contention. Minnesota started off the 2023 regular season with some very unlucky losses, quickly falling to a record of 1-4.

Since then, however, the Vikings are winners of 5 consecutive games. If the postseason started today, they would be in. Everyone and their Uncle Eddie were counting out Minnesota after their leader, Captain Kirk Cousins, went down for the season.

The Vikings inserted Josh Dobbs after a trade with the Arizona Cardinals, and the transition has been seamless. This team is playing with a lot of emotion right now. Could a trip to the Mile High City to play in the crispy-thin Colorado air be Minnesota's cooling agent?

The betting odds tell us it won't be easy for the team with the better record.

Denver hasn't won 5 straight, but they have turned it around quite a bit since they let the Miami Dolphins put up 70 on them. The team is 4-2 since then, with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs where the defense held Patrick Mahomes and the boys in red to a single digit.

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Vikings vs Broncos Betting Odds

Point Spread

Denver: -2.5 (-110)

Minnesota: +2.5 (-110)

Would the Denver Broncos be 2.5-point favorites in this matchup if they had lost the game on Monday against the Bills?

Here is my quick take on that. I like that the Broncos had such an emotional down-to-the-wire win. That hurts their chances this week against the Vikings. It isn't like the team gained any confidence in that win.

They got their swag when they hung with the Chiefs and beat them a couple of weeks later. They're confident. They just aren't that good.

Moneyline

Denver: -125

Minnesota: -105

If you like the Broncos, surely take them on the moneyline. The number (-125) is not that far north of (-110). It’s hard enough to win bets in the NFL. Nobody wants to lose them that way.

Point Total

Over 43: -110

Under 43: -110

Primetime unders just keep hitting at an alarming rate. I was late to the party. So, I didn’t come inside. The sportsbooks adjusted their betting lines. We have seen totals in the mid-30s still going under.

I feel like NFL offenses are starting to turn up, and I hope you didn't miss too many boats with the under bets.

Vikings vs Broncos Betting Analysis

I don't believe the home-field advantage of being acclimated to the mile-high or thin air is as pronounced in the NFL as in fighting or a game like basketball. Athletes need a much better aerobic base to hang in the thin air, exerting themselves over an extended period.

The NFL doesn't require a lot of aerobic ability. It is primarily anaerobic. So, of course, home field matters. Indoor versus outdoor matters as well, but I don't think the Vikings will be gasping for air by the end of this one.

Russell Wilson may have something to say about that, though. He is coming off his best game of the season, where he threw one of, if not the, best pass to Courtland Sutton for a TD.

Vikings vs Broncos Betting Prediction

Neither team has been able to run the ball over the previous three games. It appears as if the Vikings are going to have more of an edge because the Denver defense is ranked 32nd in the NFL at stopping the run.

That Miami game skewed their stats so badly, though. So, I checked how they have defended the run over the past three games. They are giving up more yards per rush and are still dead last in the NFL.

Moving the ball on the ground is the biggest weakness for Minnesota, and it doesn’t appear that the Broncos will be able to exploit that.

I lean towards the over, but there is no chance I am betting a primetime over at this point.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

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Sunday Night Football Predictions: Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos

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