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Season Win Total Picks for Four College Football Independents

by Matt Zitt - 8/25/2023

Season win total picks four college football independent teams Sam Hartman Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Seven teams lived the independent life in 2022, but only four remain for this upcoming season. BYU jumped to the Big 12 after being independent for 12 seasons. Liberty and New Mexico State joined Conference USA. That leaves Notre Dame, Army, UConn, and UMass as the last four independent squads. A new TV deal with NBC could keep Notre Dame independent for the foreseeable future or the money associated with conference play could entice the Fighting Irish to join a major conference. They do have an agreement with the ACC to play six ACC teams this season, in addition to battles with Ohio State and USC. Army has been independent since 2005 and have reached bowl games in five of the last seven seasons. There were rumblings that UConn could ditch the independent life for the Big 12, but only time will tell. Lastly, UMass has been independent since 2016. The Minutemen have never won more than four games in the FBS ranks. Doc’s Sports will break down the FBS Independents below.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Last year was a roller coaster ride for first-year head coach Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish finished with a 9-4 record and an intense 45-38 victory over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. Notre Dame dominated Clemson by a final score of 35-14, but also suffered bad losses to Marshall and Stanford at home. The Irish upgraded the quarterback position this offseason, adding former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman. However, the team lost some key pieces of the coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees went to Alabama, offensive line coach Harry Hiestand retired, and special team’s coordinator Brian Mason bounced to the Indianapolis Colts. Notre Dame went 6-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of seven or fewer points in 2022, while going 1-5 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points with two straight up losses. One of the crazier stat lines regarding Notre Dame in 2022 was its red zone defense. The Fighting Irish allowed a touchdown 79% of the time and allowed points on 94% of its opponents’ red zone trips (32-34). They open ’23 with a trip to Ireland against Navy, hosts Ohio State and USC, and play six ACC opponents, including a trip to Clemson.

Pick: Under 8.5 wins +115

Army Black Knights

The goal for 2023 is simple for Army; beat Navy, beat Air Force, win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, and reach a bowl game. The Black Knights defeated Navy in double overtime last season but failed to win the CIC Trophy or reach a bowl game. Overall, head coach Jeff Monken has done a phenomenal job with the program from West Point. He is in his 10th season, reached a bowl game in five of the last seven years, and has just one losing season since 2015. This upcoming year could be difficult with an offense in transition and the overall schedule. The Black Knights have publicly stated they are moving away from the famous triple option from under center. They will still use some sort of option attack but will operate under shotgun. In addition to rivals Navy and Air Force, Army must play three Power Five teams (Syracuse, Boston College, LSU), as well as three Group of Five programs that all reached bowl games in ’22 (UTSA, Troy, Coastal Carolina). Throw in the fact that all of Army’s quarterbacks have zero college experience yet, this could be a difficult season.

Pick: Under 6 wins (-105)

UConn Huskies

Jim Mora was a miracle worker in 2022. Heading into last season, UConn had won a total of four games since 2018 (UConn did not play any games in 2020). Despite losing their starting QB for the first six weeks of ’22, the Huskies somehow pulled off six wins, including three victories as a touchdown underdog or more. They ended up losing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to Marshall by a score of 28-14, which was their first bowl appearance since 2015. Mora’s squad went 9-4 ATS, and the Huskies won and covered all three games they were favored in. UConn plays four Power Five programs this year and will be an underdog in all four games against NC State, Duke, at Boston College, and at Tennessee. They will also be an underdog against James Madison. The Huskies should be able to beat FIU, FCS Sacred Heart, and UMass. That leaves four toss-up games against Georgia State, Utah State, Rice, and South Florida. With a strong offense and defensive line, this team has a chance to go to a bowl for a second straight season. I will back Mora to get to five or more wins.

Pick: Over 5 wins (-110)

UMass Minutemen

To put it bluntly, there is not much going in the Minutemen’s favor heading into 2023. They have not won more than four games in a season since joining the FBS ranks back in 2012. Over the last four seasons, UMass is just 3-37. Quarterback play was atrocious as four QBs combined to throw four touchdowns and 14 interceptions over the course of the season. They finished last in FBS with 12.5 points per game and tallied just 266.0 yards per game on offense. The one reason for optimism is the shiny new toy, QB Taisun Phommachanh. He was a four-star recruit in 2019 and spent his first three years at Clemson before transferring to Georgia Tech last year. They used the transfer portal to add to the running back and wide receiver rooms as well. The team also brings back eight starters on defense. UMass will be favored against FCS Merrimack and have three or four more toss-up games. The Minutemen have not won more than one game in a campaign since 2018, but they have a chance to win three or four in 2023.

Pick: Over 2.5 wins (-115)

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