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NHL Totals Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Over and Under Teams 12/15/2023

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/15/2023

NHL totals betting advice hot and cold over and under teams Mathew Barzal New York Islanders

As teams near 30 games played on the year, it is time for us to take a look at who has had frequent trips to either side of the game total. Overall, no team has hit the over more than the New Jersey Devils, as they have seen the over hit in 2/3rds of their contests. On the other side, the two Pennsylvania teams have had the under frequent in the majority of their games, with a combined 34 under totals in 56 games. Let’s take a look at where teams have been over the last 10 games and see where you should be putting your money.

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Over (Last 10)

New York Islanders 8/10

Since their seven-game losing streak, the Isles have gotten hot. Their offense has been unstoppable over the last 10 games, and, as a result, they are one of the leagues hottest teams at hitting the over. Over their last 10 contests, New York has averaged 3.9 GF/G, as team points leader Mathew Barzal has really come on this season -- he now sits with 30 points to date on the campaign. This performance on offense is well over their season average, as they average a mere 3.07 GF/G, which shows this run may not be sustainable. However, this is not the only factor that has contributed to the frequent overs in recent games. They have allowed a good deal of goals as well. The Isles have allowed 3.8 GA/G during the last 10, meaning there have been an average of nearly eight goals a game, per NYI’s last 10 games. Their penalty kill has not been good, either, as they have killed only 72.6% of their opponents’ man advantage chances. The offense isn’t sustainable, but boy have the Isles looked like a new team as of late. Overall, New York has seen the over hit in 16 of their 28 contests.

Toronto Maple Leafs 7/10

The Leafs see high scoring games more frequently than they would like. And with G Joseph Woll being placed on the IR, we may see some more overs in the coming games. We all know the potential of this Leafs offense, and they have lived up to the hype with three guys already eclipsing 30-point totals thus far. They rank 7th in GF/G as they average 3.46 GF/G. Toronto, powered by the Core Four, will find the back of the net, but they lack depth on the blueline, and heavy hitter Ryan Reaves is rumored to be out for some time -- add that to their budding netminder’s absence, and we may continue to see opponents run up their tallies. Over their last three games, they have allowed over four goals a game as Ilya Samsonov’s struggles continue. His .884 SV% and 3.29 GA/G marks rank as a career low. Overall, the Maple Leafs have seen the over hit in 14 of their 26 games.

Dallas Stars 7/10

Dallas has struggled over their last 10 games, and that is a big reason why they have seen the north side of game totals lately. Dallas wins their games by playing tough defense that wears out the opposition, thus leading to low scores, but that scheme hasn’t been working over the last 10-game stretch, as they have allowed 3.4 GA/G, which is .33 goals over their season average. Jake Oettinger has struggled a bit, going 3-5 in his last eight starts in goa. And in those five losses, he has allowed an average of 4.8 GA/G… yikes. However, goalie struggles is not the only variable. Dallas has a very serviceable and deep roster with breakout potential up and down the list of names. Sixty percent of the Dallas skaters have double-digit points already on the year, with five players over 20 points. The Stars rank 8th in the NHL in GF/G as they average 3.44, so the over is bound to hit on occasion. However, 70% of the time makes this stretch seem like an outlier. Overall, the Stars have seen the over hit in 16 of their 27 games.

Under (Last 10)

Winnipeg Jets 7/10

Connor Hellebuyck and his backup, Laurent Brossoit, are a big reason as to why the Under has been so frequent in the Jets last 10 games. Hellebuyck has appeared in seven of the last 10 games, and five of those resulted in the game total going under the line. He has allowed just 1.71 GA/G during this stretch, and his elite netminding has allowed the Jets to climb their way to second in the Central Division. The offense has come on a bit. However, in the current 10-game stretch, they have managed just 2.5 GF/G. Add that underwhelming offensive showing to their elite netminding, and you have a perfect recipe for Under success. Overall, the Jets offense has performed much better than their current cold stretch, but they did just lose their leading goal scorer, Kyle Connor, who is set to miss six to eight weeks with an injury. Connor’s 17 goals make up nearly 20% of the total goals scored for this team, so his absence will be a huge hindrance for this Winnipeg team, which could lead to more low-scoring affairs. Overall, the Jets have seen the south side of the game total in 14 of their 28 games.

Montreal Canadiens 7/10

This team just stinks. They are playing for the future, and that’s fine, so why not make some money off their current failures. Montreal has no offense. They have only six players with double-digit points, and only three players to have 20 or more. There has yet to be one Canadiens player to reach double-digit goals this season, either, and this team has averaged just 2.62 GF/G, which ranks 27th in the NHL. They have scored just 23 goals during this 10-game stretch and managed to score more than three in a game only three times. Another reason Montreal can’t score is their poor performance on the man advantage, as they have cashed in on only 17% of their man advantage opportunities. Overall, the Canadiens have seen the under hit in 15 of their 29 games this season.

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