NFL Week 9 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 11/2/2023

NFL Week 9 Circa Westgate Las Vegas football contest report Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins

ZeiwBruder-3 is hitting 77% on their picks as they went 3-1-1 in Week 8 for a season long record of 28-8-4 at 26.5 points (76.5%) in the Circa Million V pro football contest. NotSoFast-1 caught up with the leader with a 4-0-1 record ATS and is tied for the lead with ZeiBruder-3 at 30 points. There is a five-way tie in the second quarter $60,000 mini-contest NU3672-1, Studley-1, Bzpoker119-2, Maybach-1, and Emppu-1. My picks went 4-0-1, which brings my season record to 27-12-1 (69.2%) good enough for 31st place in the standings after eight weeks. The five consensus picks were 3-1-1 in Week 8: Minnesota Pick‘em (27%), Houston -3 (25.5%), Denver +7.5 (22%), Tennessee +3 (21.5%), NY Jets -3 (21%).

Imthecapt1 retains sole possession of the lead at the Westgate SuperContest thanks to going 5-0 against the number for a 31-8-1 (79.5%) record ATS and 31.5 points. Terminators and Ottomatic are 3 points behind the leader 28-11-1 (71.8%) My picks went 5-0, which brings my season record to 26-14, good enough for 35th place in the standings after eight weeks. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 8: Jets -2.5 (32.5%), Vikings Pick‘em (24.5%), Saints Pick‘em (24%), Texans -3 (21%), Carolina +3 (21%)

Despite going 3-2 in Week 8, Bbissick still retains sole possession of the lead with 31-9 (77%) correct online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em. Bmarks3 is still in second with 30-10 (75%). Spartan71 rounds out the top three at 26-9 (74.3%), having utilized the skip week. My picks went 5-0 and moved me into the min-cash zone of $1777.50, which brings my season record to 25-15, good enough for 140th place in the standings after eight weeks. I am using my skip this week in Week 9. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 8: Jets -2.5 (35.60%), Bengals +5.5 (34.99%), Texans -2.5 (34.01%), Saints +1.5 (27.79%), Broncos +7.5 (26.05%)

Last week I was 2-0 on my picks in two of three contests but pushed on the Jets (-3) in Circa Million V and moved to 10-6, 9-6-1 on the season in this space.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5) vs. the Miami Dolphins
This week the Carolina Panthers (+2.5) versus the Indianapolis Colts and the New York Jets (+3.5) versus the LA Chargers are the only true home teams on the card that are not favorites. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) will have to travel 9-hours as “home” chalk in Frankfurt, Germany, and not all the players are happy about this. The Chiefs (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) will leave for Germany after practice on Thursday, while the Miami Dolphins (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) have been enjoying sauerbraten-und-biers since they arrived early Tuesday morning. Keep in mind if you are betting the Chiefs, there is a 6-hour time difference between Kansas City and Frankfurt, so the Chiefs will only have two days to deal with jetlag while Miami should be well adjusted. However, the Chiefs are 2-0 in international games, while the Dolphins are 1-4. The last time these teams met was Dec. 13, 2020, and the Chiefs won 33-27. I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. The total was set at 50.5 and hasn't budged.

The Chiefs look to bounce back from one of their worst outings in recent memory in their 24-9 loss to Denver as 7.5-point road favorites. In fact, the Chiefs had their 6-game win streak snapped and lost to the Broncos for the first time since 2015; the NFL’s third longest winning streak against one team. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes experienced flu-like symptoms during the game as he apparently caught a bug from his wife and young child earlier in the week. During the game, Mahomes suffered a hand injury that left him bleeding. And no, Taylor Swift was not at the game to witness Mahomes’ 52.9 QBR or TE Kelce’s six catches for 58 yards.

The Miami Dolphins managed to pull away from the New England Patriots last week as 9.5-point road ‘chalk’ to win by 14-points and cover the spread. When Miami wins, they cover the spread, and when the Dolphins lose straight-up they lose against-the-spread as well. And it’s not hard to see why the Dolphins have taken over first place in the AFC East. It’s their offense, which leads the NFL in passing (301.5 yards per game), rushing (151.8 per game) and scoring (33.9 ppg).

Miami has three wins in four games. And even if their defense is not great, they can match score-for-score with any team in the NFL. Miami’s all-world wide receiver Tyreek Hill will face his former team for the first time and is looking to make a statement against his old coach, Andy Reid. Hill is the first wide receiver in the Super Bowl era to pass the 1,000 receiving yards mark in his first eight games.

The Chiefs have quietly gotten stronger on defense and now own the fourth best defense total defense at 278.8 yards per game, and second in scoring defense at 16.1 points-per-game.

While it's uncertain whether or not Taylor Swift will make the journey to the Fatherland, Charmin Ultra Soft Smooth Tear will make the trip. The toilet paper company has sent the Chiefs their newest product to bring with them to Germany so they can “enjoy the go.” Speaking of ‘enjoying the go,’ keep an eye on Miami’s running back, Raheem Mostert (ankle), who traveled to Germany but didn’t practice on Wednesday. If Mostert can’t play, this could force Miami into a one-dimensional offense. Miami plays great against bad football teams. However, when they’ve faced good teams, they have lost straight-up and against-the-spread. I think Kansas City is much better than we saw in Denver, so I am not going to overreact so I expect the public to back the Miami Dolphins based upon recency bias.

Take Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 in all contests.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) hope to build on their first win of the season last week as they face HC Frank Reich’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS). The Panthers were listed as 3-point home dogs, but that number was bet down to 2.5 points. The Colts are taking 64% of the handle at -2.5 points.

The Panthers, coming off a bye, managed to beat Houston 13-15 at home as 2.5-point underdogs last week, while the Colts lost to New Orleans 27-38 as -1.5 road favorites. Both teams have beaten Houston, and both teams have lost to New Orleans this year. The Colts started out well against New Orleans, and in fact torched the Saints defense for 511 total offensive yards, but couldn't compete in the second half and lost the half by a 17-7 margin.

The Panthers HC Reich finally turned over the offensive play calling duties to OC Thomas Brown, and that resulted in rookie QB Bryce Young’s best day as an NFL quarterback. Despite being sacked six times last week, Young threw for 235 yards and a touchdown and didn’t turn the ball over. On the other side of the ball, Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew will run the offense once again, and it is always an adventure backing him on the road.

The Colts, however, are the only team in the NFL that has scored 20+ points in every game this season, but their defense has allowed an NFL high of 28.6 points-per-game, while Carolina averages 18.1 points per game. This game has the makings for a final score 21-20. Colts HC Shane Steichen will likely limit Minshew this week in favor of tandem running backs Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss. Taylor is coming off a season high of 95 yards rushing against New Orleans, while Moss is second in the NFL in rushing with 589 yards.

This is a situational game in which the Colts will be on their second consecutive road game. Now the Colts, fourth in the AFC South, face Carolina, fifth in the AFC South, a divisional opponent coming off their first win. The Panthers could have safety Vonn Bell back as he practiced with the team on Wednesday. Lifetime, the Colts are 2-5 against the Panthers and 1-2 in Charlotte, NC. The last time these two teams met was in August of 2021 when the Colts defeated the Panthers 21-18.

Take Carolina Panthers +2.5/+3 in all contests

CIRCA MILLION V
STEELERS -2.5 vs. Titans +2.5

CHIEFS -1.5** vs. Dolphins +1.5

FALCONS -4.5 vs. Vikings +4.5

RAVENS -6 vs. Seahawks +6

BROWNS -7.5 vs. Cardinals +7.5

PACKERS -3 vs. Rams +3

TEXANS -2.5 vs. Bucs +2.5

PATRIOTS -3 vs. Commanders +3

SAINTS -8.5 vs. Bears +8.5

Colts -2.5 vs. PANTHERS +2.5

RAIDERS -2 vs. Giants +2

EAGLES -3 vs. Cowboys +3

BENGALS -1.5 vs. Bills +1.5

Chargers -3.5 vs. JETS +3.5

Westgate SuperContest
STEELERS vs. Titans (+2.5)
CHIEFS vs. Dolphins (+1.5)**
SAINTS vs. Bears (+8.5)
BROWNS vs. Cardinals (+7.5)
PACKERS vs. Rams (+3)

FALCONS vs. Vikings (+4.5)
RAVENS vs. Seahawks (+5.5)
TEXANS vs. Buccaneers (+3)
PATRIOTS vs. Commanders (+3.5)
Colts vs. PANTHERS (+2.5)
PHILADELPHIA vs. Cowboys (+3)
RAIDERS vs. Giants (+1.5)
BENGALS vs. Bills (+1.5)
Chargers vs. JETS (+3.5)

DRAFTKINGS Pick’em
STEELERS (-2.5) vs. Titans
CHIEFS (-1.5) vs. Dolphins**

FALCONS (-4.5) vs. Vikings
RAVENS (-5.5) vs. Seahawks
SAINTS (-8.5) vs. Bears

BROWNS (-8.5) vs. Cardinals
TEXANS (-3) vs. Buccaneers
PATRIOTS (-3.5) vs. Commanders
PACKERS (-3.5) vs. Rams
Colts (-2.5) vs. PANTHERS
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. Cowboys
RAIDERS (-1.5) vs. Giants
BENGALS (-1.5) vs. Bills
Chargers (-3.5) vs. JETS

* Favorite listed first. HOMETEAM in capitals.
** Game in Germany

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NFL Week 9 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

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