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NFL Week 6 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/12/2023

NFL Week 6 Circa Westgate Las Vegas football contest report Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

One Bad Mutha-1 (21-4), 21-points, is still atop the Circa Million V leaderboard after going 4-1 in Week 5. Ohio McGaha Bros., tied for first last week, went 2-3 this week and dropped to ninth place with 19 points. A total of 162 entries, or 3.1%, went 5-0 In week 5. My entry went 2-3, which was good enough for 17 points, dropping us to 44th place in the standings. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 5:  San Francisco (-3.5), Los Angeles Rams (+4.5), Buffalo (-5), Miami (-11.5), Atlanta (-1.5).

CALICRACKER has taken sole position of the lead with 20-points at the Westgate SuperContest. Last week’s leader TA2 dropped to sixth place with a 2-2-1 Week 5 record. A total of 25 entrants, or 1.9 percent of the entrants, went 5-0 in week 5. I was one of the 73 entrants with an abysmal 1-4 weekly record. This put me at 16-points and 629th place and an almost insurmountable 4-points behind the leader. The five consensus picks were 3-1-1 in Week 5: Los Angeles Rams (+4.5), Miami (-11), SF 49ers (-3.50, Pittsburgh (+4), Houston (+2)  

In the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em Contest. BBISICK has taken sole possession of the lead, having hit 22/25 (88%) and a $142,200 payout after week 5. Last week’s leader BMARKS3 dropped to second at 20/25 and 20 points. My entry went 1-4 and sits at 14/25 on the season after a dreadful week playing against the spread. The five consensus picks were 1-4 in Week 5:  Bengals (-2.5), Vikings (+4.5) Titans (+0.5), Rams (+4.5), Ravens (-3.5)

If you are playing contests in Las Vegas or online, be sure that you note the 49ers on the road are a seven-point road chalk in the SuperContest, but only a five-point favorite in DraftKings Pick ‘em. This presents an unusual middle opportunity that you don’t usually get in football contests. You could grab the 49ers and lay 5-points in DraftKings and take 7-points on the home team Browns if you think the number will land on six. I am avoiding this game, but here are two games I am playing in the NFL Contests in week 6.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5, -3) vs Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +3)

The Seattle Seahawks (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2nd NFC West), fresh off a bye-week, look to remain undefeated on the road and notch their fourth win in a row SU and against-the-spread as they travel to the Cincinnati Bengals (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 4th AFC North). On average, the Seahawks are the sixth best team at covering the spread in the NFL with an average +3.3 points per game.  The Bengals (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) won and covered the spread for the first time this season on the road against the Arizona Cardinals 34-20 last week in a game that had the Cardinas keeping it close until the second half.

The last few years, the Bengals seem to follow a similar pattern; QB Joe Burrow gets injured early in the season, everyone writes off the Bengals, the Bengals start to get healthy mid-season, the Bengals remain competitive for the remainder of the season and challenge for the AFC title. Certainly, last week against the Cardinals, it looked like the Bengals followed the script. The Burrow-Chase connection was in full effect as the duo connected on 15 receptions for 192 yards and 3 TDs. Bengals QB Burrow definitely elevated his game against the Cardinals as he went 36/46 and 317 yards, 3 TDS and 1 INT and a 34-20 road victory for Cincinnati.

Since their home opener loss against the Rams, the Seahawks have scored 65-points in the second-half of their last three games. QB Geno Smith has thrown for 846 yards and five TDs but has a less than impressive 65.5 QBR. This might also have something to do with Seattle losing their starting left tackle, Charles Cross (toe) and right tackle, Abraham Lucas (knee) in the first game of the season. The offensive tackles should return to the line-up this week. So, keep tabs on the injury report when they come out on Friday. The Seahawks average 211.3 passing yards per game (ranked 16th) but score 27.8 points-per-game, good enough for sixth in the NFL.  

Meanwhile, the real story behind the Hawks’ success might be Seattle’s’ defensive ability to stop the run. This year they rank first in yards-per-carry allowed at 3.18; this is down from last year’s 4.9 yards-per-carry. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon looked great against the Giants on Monday night, but he will get tested by the Bengals Ja’marr Chase this week.

The Bengals are 1-1 at home but are improving every week. The Joe Burrow I saw against the Cardinals was more mobile and healthy than he has been all season. Burrow is now over 1,000 yards throwing on the season with 5 TDs, but a QBR rating of 37.7 (this should go up if he remains healthy). WR Ja’Marr ‘‘I’m always F’n open’ Chase got his first three TDs of the season and set a Bengals receiving record with 192 yards on 15 catches against Arizona’s soft secondary. 

Chase now has 476 yards on 44 receptions. RB Joe Mixon has 328 yards on 84 carries and 1 TD. The offense averages 16.6 points-per-game and allows 22.4 points. Despite the DD win against the Cardinals, the score was 20-24 late in the fourth quarter. Seattle has managed to play really well on the road. The Bengals might have a hard time getting up for this game as they look ahead to a bye next week.

Take: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +3) in all contests

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs NY JETS

The New York Jets (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) face the second Super Bowl team in three weeks as they host the Philadelphia Eagles (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) in Week 6. Two weeks ago, the Jets lost a heartbreaker to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 20-23, but they covered the 9.5 points, and were a threat to win the game in the closing minutes. This game, at least, the Jets won’t have to deal with a legion of Swifites.  Last week the Jets went on the road and won convincingly 31-21 but needed Bryce Halls’ 39-yard scoop-and-score to seal the victory against the Denver Broncos in the Nathaniel Hackett revenge game.

Against the Broncos, it seems like HC Salah re-discovered RB Breece Hall. Hall carried the ball 22 times for 172 yards, including a 72-yard TD scamper. The Jets now rank 11th in the NFL in rushing with 123.3 yards-per-game. Even though the Jets lost half their OL for the season, they did enough to make holes for Hall against the Broncos and will need to continue this against the hyper-aggressive Eagles DL. Jets QB Wilson was 19-26 and 199 yards 0 TDS, 1INT against the Broncos. Wilson was sacked 4 times.

The Eagles are on the road for the second consecutive week. Last week they beat the LA Rams 23-14 as a 4-point road chalk. Philadelphia is winning by an average of 8-points on the road, and the only time the Eagles have not covered the spread are home games. Two weeks ago, they won 34-31 in OT but did not cover the 10-points against the Washington Commanders. Philadelphia pushed as 6-point favorites at home against the Vikings in their 34-28 win.

The Eagles and Jets share a common opponent; the Patriots. The Eagles kicked off their season with a 25-20 win at New England and the Jets lost at MetLife 15-10 to the Patriots, but dropped a hail mary pass in the endzone as time expired which would have given the Jets the win. I don’t know if you can take much from either of these games. The Patriots are a truly awful team but have dominated the Jets for the last 14 games. Meanwhile, the Eagles were coming off the fated Super Bowl hangover. There is a 10-point differential between the two games, and that sounds about right for a margin of victory in this game.  

Jalen Hurts, however, continues to be stud whenever he has the ball. Another game, another push-tush, not brilliantly executed but it got the job done just before the first-half ended against the Rams. If the Jets hope to win or even keep this game close, they will have to force Hurts to throw the ball and contain him from running. Last week against the Rams, Hurts rushed for 72 yards and a TD. As good as the Jets running game was last week, it was against the Broncos. The Eagles, on the other hand, allow only 61.2 rush-yards a game, good enough for the best overall run defense in the league. 

Consider this; the Jets have covered seven of eight past October games and are 2-1 ATS as a home dog. Unfortunately for the Jets they are outclassed in all skill positions against the Eagles, save for the secondary. The Jets’ Jordan Whitehead leads the NFL with 3 INTs, but that won’t be enough to keep the Jets in this game. The Jets have a bye after this game as well.  

Take: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, -7) in all contests.

*Last week 0-2, season record 6-4.

CIRCA MILLION V

Lines Coming ASAP

Westgate SuperContest

CHIEFS (-10.5) vs Broncos
Ravens (-4) vs TITANS
FALCONS (-2.5) vs. Commanders
VIKINGS (-2.5) vs. Bears
BENGALS (-2.5) vs Seahawks
49ers  (-7) vs BROWNS
Saints (-1) vs TEXANS
JAGUARS (-4) vs Colts
DOLPHINS (-13.5) vs Panthers
Lions (-3) vs BUCCANEERS
RAIDERS (-3) vs Patriots
LA RAMS (-7) vs Cardinals
Eagles (-7) vs NY JETS
BILLS (-14) vs NY Giants
Cowboys (-2.5) vs LA CHARGERS
 

DRAFTKINGS Pick’em

KANSAS CITY (-10.5) vs Denver
Baltimore (-4.5) vs TENNESSEE
San Francisco (-5.5) vs CLEVELAND
MIAMI (-13.5) vs Carolina
MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. Chicago
CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs Seattle
JACKSONVILLE (-4.5) vs Indianapolis
New Orleans (-1.5) vs HOUSTON
ATLANTA (-2.5) vs. Washington
LAS VEGAS (-3.5) vs New England
Philadelphia (-6.5) vs NY JETS
Detroit (-3.5) vs TAMPA BAY
LA RAMS (-6.5) vs Arizona
BUFFALO (-14.5) vs NY Giants
Dallas (-1.5) vs LA CHARGERS

* Favorite listed first. HOME TEAM in capitals.

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