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NFL Week 5 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/5/2023

NFL Week 5 Circa Westgate Las Vegas football contest report Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

Despite going 3-2, One Bad Mutha-1 (17-3) is still atop the Circa Million V leaderboard, but is tied for the lead with Ohio McGaha Bros., who went 5-0, good enough for 17-points (85%) heading into Week 5. These two entries will split the combined first and second prize ($210,000) for the first quarter. There were four entries tied for third place. A total of 159 entries, or three percent, went 5-0 In Week 4. My entry went 3-2, which was good enough for 16 points at the quarter pole.  While I missed a taste of the first quarter prize, I’m in seventh place and one point out of the lead. The five consensus picks were 2-3 in Week 4: Jacksonville (-3), Pittsburgh (-2.5), Seattle (pk), Cincinnati (-2), Cleveland (-2).

Further up on the monorail, at the Westgate SuperContest, TA2 and Midnight Run are tied for the lead with 16 points, while last week’s leader, PAPAG77, dropped to 6th place with 15 points. A total of 34 entrants, or 2.6 percent, went 5-0 in Week 4. My entry went 3-2 for a total of 15-points, good enough for sixth place and one point behind the leader. The Superbook released the Week 1-3 mini-contest winners; a three-way tie between PAPAG77, TA2, ACCORSI at 13-2. This was good for $13,333.35 cash. The five consensus picks were 3-2 in Week 4: Jacksonville (-3), Buffalo (-2.5), NE (+7), Seattle (pk), Cleveland (-2.5).

Online, the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em Contest. BMARKS3 has taken sole possession of the lead, having hit 19/20 (95%) and a $142,200 payout. KMARCHEWKA is 18/20 but in fifth place having not used the skip week yet. My entry went 2-3, and 13/20 on the season, one point out of the money. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 4: Baltimore (+2.5), Buffalo (-2.5), Minnesota (-3.5), Pittsburgh (-2.5), Chargers (-5.5).

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Week 4 Recap

Last week, contest backers on the Browns were a victim of the stale contest lines bugaboo. Just before kick-off in the Browns game, QB Watson decided he wasn’t going to play after warm-ups. Of course, at that point it was too late to change our picks since they lock-in on Saturday. As soon as I heard that, I knew the pick was a loser.

Enter UCLA rookie QB Dorian Robinson-Thompson. The game didn’t go well for the Browns on either side of the ball. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson took care of his turnover issues and ran for two scores and tossed another two in the rout. The Ravens (+2.5) won easily, despite having six injured starters and missing two wide receivers, and the offense still made a mockery of the Brown’s vaunted defense. It does, however, beg the question; which team will the Ravens field on any given Sunday? Despite the easy victory, I am adopting a wait and see attitude on both of these teams for the next few weeks.

Our second pick was the Chargers laying 5-5-points against the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who were without starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo. And indeed things went as expected as the Bolts jumped out to a 24-7 first-half lead. However, the Charger’s wouldn’t score again in the game. And that’s despite six sacks by Khalil Mack. Chargers’ QB Herbert did make an important throw to seal the victory at the end of the fourth quarter. The game was a huge sweat. Toward the end of the fourth-quarter, clinging to a 7-point lead, HC Brandon Staley decided to go for it on fourth-and-one from their own 34 with 3:34 left in the game. Predictably, they did not get the first down, and the Raiders would have scored had it not been for a crucial interception by CB Asante Samuel, Jr.  Going into Week 5, there are 15 teams at 2-2 the Chargers are one of the teams.

**BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

The good news for Week 5 in the NFL is that you’ll get another dose of the Jaguars’ seemingly endless residence in London at 6:30 a.m. PST as they face the Buffalo Bills. The Jags are playing for the second consecutive week at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as brand ambassadors in Europe. What makes the Spurs’ stadium special is that the stadium provides separate facilities for football and NFL players; these include changing rooms, medical facilities, restaurants, hydrotherapy pools, warm-up areas, pre-match players' lounge, as well as lounges for their families. The obvious advantage is that the Jaguars have enjoyed North London hospitality this week fresh off their victory and cover against the ATL. Meanwhile, Buffalo will need to battle jet-lag and customs fatigue on Sunday.

The Bills are taking 95% of the handle and bets made. The number has steamed-up to 6-points at some books, and this, I imagine, will be the public play of the week for bettors and contestants. For contest purposes the line is hovering at -5.5 in favor of the Bills. The Bills are 3-1 (3-1 ATS) and atop the AFC East. Since 2018 the Bills are 2-0 ATS on neutral sites. This year they’ve outscored their opponents 149-49 over the first four games. And despite the hiccup at the Jets, QB Allen and the offense have righted the ship. Allen owns the No. 1 spot for completions (74%) and had his second consecutive game with three TDs against a porous Miami defense last week. Not to be overlooked is the Bills defense, who basically shut down a potent Miami offense last week.

The bad news for Jacksonville is that the Bills are not the Falcons. While the Jags defense was effective against Atlanta last week, it was against QB Riddder, who most agree is not a good field general. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, (12th in the NFL with 68% completion percentage) managed to notch a 105.8 quarterback rating, but that will likely drop to the 80’s like it was for the previous two games (85 QBR vs the Texans, 68 QBR vs. Chiefs). Interestingly, the Jaguars only have one give away on the season to five giveaways on the Bills side. The Jaguars have not been able to notch consecutive wins this season, while the Bills look like they are just getting rolling. The Bills kicker, Tyler Bass, was named special teams player of the month and was a perfect 7-7 kicking field goals.

While I like the staying-in-London angle for the Jaguars, there is no reason to overthink this game. Buffalo should cruise to double-digit victory.
Take Buffalo (-5.5) in all contests.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints (+1.5)

The Ezekial Elliott experiment isn’t going well for the Patriots, and this has affected the entire offense. Last week, many thought that Elliott would help keep the game close with six-point favorite Dallas Cowboys as he played the previous seven seasons in Big-D and could help with the Dallas signals. Unfortunately, most bettors hadn’t counted on QB Mac Jones playing as poorly as he did and getting benched in the third quarter. Back-up QB Zappe did no better at 12-21 and 150 passing yards and a quarterback rating of 38. The Patriots were embarrassed on the road, managing only 3 points in the loss and giving up 38 points, including two defensive scores. This handed HC Belichick his worst loss of his coaching career. Belichick had only had back-to-back losses 11-times in his Brady/Belichick career before this.


Meanwhile, Mike Reiss reported that The Patriots have made a trade with the Chargers to get back CB JC Jackson for 2025 6-round pick. Jackson had 25 interceptions with the Patriots from 2018-2021. The Patriots, however, lost all-world OLB Mathew Judon, who might be out for the rest of the season. Make no mistake, this is a huge loss for the defense who will have the task of stopping RB Alvin Kamara, who rushed for 84 yards against the Buccaneers. 

The New Orleans Saints could be the get-right team that the Patriots need right now. The Saints looked terrible against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers They actually made Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, who threw three TDS, look good. On the other side of the ball, Saints QB Derek Carr’s premature return from shoulder surgery was a surprise; but no surprise he looked ineffective for most offensive series.

The Saints started the season 2-0 but have dropped their last two games. If they had held onto their double-digit lead at Green Bay, they would be 3-1 but just as terrible. The Patriots are 1-3 on the season and have faced tougher opponents than the Saints this season. Historically, the Patriots, during the Brady/Belichick era were .788 after a loss. While this is a very different Patriots team than those in the past, I expect Mac Jones to play a lot better than he did against the Cowboys and help give the Patriots their second win of the season.

Take New England Patriots (-1.5, -1) in all contests.  

*Last week 1-1, season tally 6-2.

Circa Million V
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS vs. Chicago Bears (+6)
**BUFFALO BILLS vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5)
Houston Texans vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (+1,5)
DETROIT LIONS vs Carolina Panthers (+10)
Tennessee Titans vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS vs NY Giants (+11.5)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs New Orleans Saints (pick’em)
Baltimore Ravens vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4)
PHILLADELPHIA EAGLES vs. Los Angeles Rams (+4)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3)
DENVER BRONCOS vs. New York Jets (+2)
Kansas City Chiefs vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS vs. Green Bay Packers (+1)

Westgate SuperContest
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS vs. Chicago Bears (+5.5)
**BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
Houston Texans vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (+2)
DETROIT LIONS vs Carolina Panthers (+9.5)
Tennessee Titans vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1)
MIAMI DOLPHINS vs NY Giants (+11)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs New Orleans Saints (+1)
Baltimore Ravens vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4)
PHILLADELPHIA EAGLES vs. Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3)
DENVER BRONCOS vs. New York Jets (+1.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS vs. Green Bay Packers (+1)

DraftKings
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+5.5)
**BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5)
DETROIT LIONS (-9.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (+9.5)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-0.5) vs Tennessee Titans (+0.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-11.5) vs NY Giants (+11.5)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints (+1.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)  vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5)
PHILLADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3)
DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) vs. New York Jets (+2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3.5) vs Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) 

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+2.5)

*Home team in Caps, Favorite listed first
**Game is played in London

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