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NFL Week 4 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 9/28/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers

And then there were none; both undefeated entries in the Circa Million V lost at least one pick in Week 3.

One Bad Mutha-1 (14-1) now retains sole possession of the lead with 14-points (93%) heading into Week 4 of the Circa Million V. This entry also sits atop the leaderboard in the race for the $150K 1st Quarter MVP award, which ends this week. OBM’s sole loss was when the Cowboys failed to cover the -12.5 points against the Cardinals last week. Three entries are 13-1-1, while the top-five are within a point of the leader. @MACH2-2 is in sole possession of 5255 place (last place) with 1.5-points and leads the Booby Prize with a record of 1-13-1. Three entries are tied for second worst. The1st-Quarter Booby is $25K paid out to last place. The five consensus picks were 2-3: Patriots -2.5 (W), Titans +3.5(L), Commanders +6.5(L), Lions -3 (W), Buccaneers +5 (L).

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The $25K Mini-Contest (Week 1-3) is finished at the Westgate SuperContest. TA2, PAPAG77, ACCORSI are tied for the lead with 13-points, and they will split the prize money. Meanwhile, the next 12 entries are within a point of the leader. The contests point-average in week 3 was 2.54, with 38 entries of 1,300 notching 5-0 records. Circa Million V recorded a 2.59 point-average in week 3, while 136 entries went a perfect 5-0. The five consensus picks were 2-3: New England -2.5 (W), Tennessee +3.5 (L), Washington DC +6.5 (L), Tampa Bay +5.5, (L), Detroit -3 (W)

CCOPE10 and ACEPOLARBEAR are currently undefeated at 10-0, having utilized a skip-week each In the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em Contest. Meanwhile, BMARKS3 and TROSS12084, the two second-place entries, are 14-1 without using the skip week. The cool part about this contest is that the prize money is updated in real-time. The two first-place entries share $88,875 while second place is $15,997.90 if the contest ended today. The five consensus picks were 2-3: New England -2.5 (W), Denver +5.5 (L), Houston +9.5 (W), Tennessee +3.5 (L), Washington DC +6.5 (L)

Last week, Kirk Cousins tossed a crucial interception, which helped the Chargers preserve a much needed 28-24 road win (and contest cover). The Chargers fumbled once for their first turnover this season. This game shot over the 54-point total but definitely was not the highest scoring game of the day (Miami-Denver). My second pick was the Lions (-3) at home against the Falcons. This game was never really a sweat. And despite a pedestrian performance from QB Goff, the Lions 20-6 win did enough to renew playoff enthusiasm in the Motor City. 

Below are the two picks I am using in the contests in Week 4.    

*Last week 2-0, season tally 5-1.

This week I’m focusing on two of the three teams tied for first place in the AFC North; the Browns and the Ravens both sport 2-1 records, with Pittsburgh being the third team in first place. The other game I’ll look at is an AFC West division rivalry as the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers.   

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) vs Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) 

If you only watched the first 5 minutes in the Ravens vs Colts game, you’d probably live-bet the Ravens to win. Somehow, though, the Ravens found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in overtime. Turnovers and not taking advantage of Colts’ mistakes killed the Ravens chances of winning and covering. 

Three plays into the Ravens’ second drive of the game, Kenyan Drake fumbles the ball and the Colts take it and score. Lamar Jackson played well and exposed the Colts defense, running for 101 yards and 2 TDs. However, Jackson had a costly fumble and then there was the bad snap from Sam Mustipher, the Colts’ back-up center, which allowed the Colts to come back and tie the score. The Ravens even sacked Gardner Minshew, the Colts’ back-up QB, in the end-zone for a safety, but fair-caught the ensuing punt. In OT, the Ravens’ offense had two chances to score but were unable to seal the home victory. 

The Browns were dominant on defense and their offense, but on the other hand, initially sputtered against the Titans, and in the second quarter reached the nadir when, with the score tied at 3-3, QB Watson threw a pass backwards as the defense swarmed him and almost cost the Browns a turnover. However, Elijah Brown was able to recover the ball. 

Once Watson settled down, the offense looked the best it has all year. Watson threw for two TDs and no INTS, and WR Amari Cooper had 116 yards and 1 TD. While the running game suffered without Nick Chubb, Hunt, who was re-signed, covered 13 yards on five carries. The Browns, compared to their opponents in 2023, have 61 first downs to 21. The Browns lose the turnover battle with -5 differential, but that will change quickly if the Browns defense keeps playing as well as they have. 

In the second quarter, the Titans got the ball at the Cleveland 17 and went backwards nine yards and had to settle for a field goal. If they don’t recover the turnover, Titans most likely would have been held scoreless.  The Browns defense, without CB Greg Newsome, was so dominant in the second half against the Titans that they couldn't get across midfield. In the second-half, the Titans netted 26 total yards, only 2 first downs and no scores.

Cleveland’s defense should be able to contain fumble prone Jackson and handle the Ravens at home this week and win give us a comfortable cover in all contests.  

Take: Cleveland Browns (-2.5 -3)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) travel to SoFi Stadium against the Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) in an AFC West divisional match-up of two second place teams. Last week, Las Vegas lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in a game they should have won, and the Chargers won in Minnesota in a game they should have lost. 

The bad news for the Raiders is they could be without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who is in concussion protocol after the Steeler’s game. If he can’t start, the Raiders HC Josh MCDaniels could lean on 15-year veteran Brian Hoyer, who last won an NFL game in 2016, or Aidan O’Connell, the 4th-round pick from Purdue who has yet to be active in an NFL game. Neither option is good news for fantasy owners of WR Devante Adams. 

In fact, the Raiders fall far behind the Chargers in most metrics. They’re 32nd in rushing with 61.7 yards-per-game, 14th in yards passing per game at 226, and tied for 29th in points scored with 15 per-game. If Garoppolo doesn’t play, these offensive numbers are likely to get worse. If you like the Chargers in this game, you should have bet the Bolts already, because once the news comes out that Garoppolo isn’t playing -- and from past history he won’t -- the number will jump. And on defense, DE Max Crosby was limited in practice this week as well.

The Chargers hope to have RB Austin Ekeler carrying the rock on Sunday. He has been at 80% in practice this week and adds balance to the Chargers’ offense. In Ekeler’s absence, RB Joshua Kelley has 142 yards on 40 carries with one TD. QB Justin Herbert has thrown for 939 yards and 6 TDs. Perennial slot receiver Keenen Allen has notched 402 yards on 32 receptions and two TDs. The Chargers are ranked 3rd in the NFL for 308.7 total passing yards per game, tied for 5th for points scored per game 28.7 and have the 13th ranked running game at 108 yards-per-game.    

Last week I mentioned how the Chargers dominated the Vikings, NFL worst with -9, on turnover differential. And the Vikings had a crucial turnover in that game. This week they face the second worst team in the NFL at turnover differential. The Raiders have a -7 turnover differential, while the Chargers are tied for fourth with +3. I just don’t see where the Raiders are going to find the points to keep up with the Chargers potent offense.

Take: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5.5) 

Circa Million V 

Lions -2 vs. PACKERS +2

JAGUARS -3* vs. Falcons +3

BILLS -3 vs. Dolphins +3

Vikings -5 vs. PANTHERS +5

Broncos -3.5 vs. BEARS +3.5

BROWNS -2.5 vs. Ravens +2.5

Steelers -2.5 vs. TEXANS +2.5

Rams Pick'em vs. COLTS Pick'em

SAINTS -3.5 vs. Bucs +3.5

EAGLES -8 vs. Commanders +8

Bengals -2 vs. TITANS +2

CHARGERS -5.5 vs. Raiders +5.5

COWBOYS -6.5 vs. Patriots +6.5

49ERS -14 vs. Cardinals +14

Chiefs -9.5 vs. JETS +9.5

Seahawks Pick'em vs. GIANTS Pick'em

Westgate SuperContest

Lions -2 vs. PACKERS +2

**JAGUARS -3 vs. Falcons +3

BILLS -2.5 vs. Dolphins +2.5

Vikings -4 vs. PANTHERS +4

Broncos -3 vs. BEARS +3

BROWNS -2.5 vs. Ravens +2.5

Steelers -3 vs. TEXANS +3

COLTS Pick'em vs. Rams Pick'em

SAINTS -3 vs. Buccaneers +3

EAGLES -8 vs. Commanders +8

Bengals -2.5 vs. TITANS +2.5

CHARGERS -5.5 vs. Raiders +5.5

COWBOYS -7 vs. Patriots +7

49ERS -14 vs. Cardinals +14

Chiefs -9.5 vs. JETS +9.5

GIANTS Pick'em vs. Seahawks Pick'em

DraftKings

Detroit (-1.5) vs GREEN BAY (+1.5)
**JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) vs Atlanta (+3.5)
Pittsburgh (-2.5) vs HOUSTON (+2.5)
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs Carolina (+3.5)
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay (+3.5)
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs Washington (+7.5)
BUFFALO (-2.5) vs Miami (+2.5)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs TENESSEE (+2.5)
CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Baltimore (+2.5)
Denver (-3.5) vs CHICAGO (+3.5)
LOS ANGELES (-5.5) vs Las Vegas (+5.5)
DALLAS (-6.5) vs New England (+6.5)
SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5) vs Arizona (+13.5)
Kansas City (-9.5) vs NY JETS (+9.5)
NEW YORK (-.5) vs Seatle (+.5)

*Home team in Caps, Favorite listed first
**Game is played in London

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