NFL Week 3 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 9/21/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers

AckAttack-2 and One Bad Mutha 1-1 are tied for first place in Circa Million V and are the only two entries that remain perfect, at 10-0. Two other entries are tied at 9-1-1. Meanwhile, five entries are tied in the Westgate Resorts SuperContest for the lead at 9-1, with Favored Heartland the only leader to go 5-0 last week. However, at DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em contest, 10 entries are a perfect 10-0.

Circa Millions V, however, offers the richest quarterly prize. The entry with the best record after the first four weeks will earn $150k, but the prize is split if more than one entry ties for the best record in that time. The SuperContest offers $25k payday for the best record after the first three weeks of the season; $50k if an entry has the best record over the first six weeks, and $75k for the best record after 9 weeks. DraftKings does not offer quarterly prizes.

Last week, I got cute with the Miami-Patriots game and took Miami at -2.5 in the Circa Millions V and +3 backing the Patriots in the Westgate SuperContest. This was meaningful because it’s the difference between 8-2 in Circa Millions and 7-3 in the SuperContest. This is more significant in the SuperContest, because the leader is 9-1 versus the Circa Millions V where the leader is 10-0. Two-points behind the leader rather than one-point in the SuperContest looms huge for the quarterly prize that these contests feature. My second pick was the Indianapolis Colts on the road at the Houston Texans, and they covered by 11-points and gave us a much needed point in all contests.

After two weeks playing in the pool at Stadium Swim, I am 80% (8-2) in Circa Millions V. And when I got off the monorail from the Linq I was 70% (7-3) walking into the Westgate Resorts SuperBook. Here are two of my five plays I am using in the three football contests in week 3.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

The undefeated Atlanta Falcons travel to the Motor City fresh off their come-from-behind win against the Green Bay Packers. The Lions won on opening night at the KC Chiefs but suffered their first defeat of the season to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime last Sunday.

Detroit led that game by four-points after three quarters, but QB Jared Goff threw a pick-6 to Tre Brown in the fourth quarter to put the Seahawks up by 10 points. Detroit managed to even the score with a buzzer-beating FG and send the game into overtime.

The Lions average 393 yards-per-game and are ranked No. 3 in total yards on offense. They’ve scored 26 points per-game (10th) in their first two games. The Lions average 283 passing yards-per-game (4th). One thing that is rapidly apparent is that the Lions are weak on defense that allows 353 yards per game (ranked 22nd). They allow 28.5 points-per-game (28th). And although they allow 86 rushing yards-per-game (10th), the run defense has not been really tested. Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson has been a stud for the Falcons in the first two weeks and will test Detroit’s defense.

Atlanta sits atop the AFC South standings tied with Tampa Bay and New Orleans but could easily be 0-2 were it not for Robinson some clutch FG kicking by Younghoe Koo, who was 4-4, but 1 for 2 on PATs against Green Bay. Bijan Robinson, drafted from Texas, has upside potential that is huge. Currently, Robinson is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 180 yards, but most of those came from when he gashed Green Bay for 124 yards.

In week 1, the Falcons OL allowed four sacks against the Carolina Panthers, and QB Desmond Ridder had 115 gross passing yards (but a 111.8 QB rating on 15/18 passing completions). The Falcons faced almost a 10-minute time-of-possession deficit 25:19 to 34:41 to HC Frank Reich’s Panthers. Despite the victory, Atlanta is not great on offense (save for Bijan) and only slightly better on defense, which allowed 252.5 total yards per game, good for third best in the NFL. This stat is deceiving when you see that they are 22nd against the run allowing 118 yards per game. This stat bodes well for David Montgomery, who rushed for 67 yards against Seattle and 74 yards against Kansas City, If QB Goff can avoid another Pick-6, I see the Lions’ offense rolling against Atlanta.

When you consider the level of the competition Detroit and Atlanta have played, their talent at the skill positions, and the upside potential of each team, I believe the Detroit Lions at home should win convincingly against the Falcons.

Pick: Detroit Lions -3.5 in all contests

LA Chargers (+.5, pick ‘em) vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-.5, pick ‘em)

The winless Los Angeles Chargers travel to US Bank Stadium as a small road-chalk against the winless Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are equally desperate for a win, as an 0-3 start will severely affect their playoff hopes. Last season, both teams made the playoffs and started their 2023 campaigns with high expectations. Currently, there are nine 0-2 teams in the NFL. One thing is for sure, though, there will be points in this game as it is the highest total on the slate at 54 and rising.

Last season, the Vikings set the NFL record for winning all 11 one-score games, but then lost their playoff game by one score. This year, they are 0-2 in one-score games, losing to Tampa Bay 20-17 in week 1 and 28-34 to the Philadelphia Eagles on TNF in week 2.

The Chargers lost both their games this season by a combined score of 4-points, and the Vikings lost both games by a combined score of 9-points. The Chargers losses were characterized by blown leads (porous defense), while the Vikings have turned over the ball seven times to one takeaway-good for the worst turnover differential in the NFL. Although the Chargers have not turned over the ball in their two losses, they blew an 11-0 lead on the road against the Titans last week and got run over against the Dolphins at home in Week 1.

This week, if the Charger’s defense shows up, the Vikings will have another hard time holding onto the football as they’ll line up against Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and J.C. Jackson on defense. However, the fact they allowed a gaudy 8.6 yard per play to Miami, and 536 yards of total offense, should not be overlooked. The good news for the Vikings is linebacker Eric Kendricks, who was out in Week 2 with a hamstring injury, might return. On offense, the Chargers RB Austin Ekeler might suit up in week 3, so check the injury report.

In week two against the Eagles, the Vikings QB Kirk Cousins tossed four TDs, two of them to TE T.J. Hockenson, but were dominated on time of possession 20:32 to 39:28 and lost four fumbles. WR Justin Jefferson caught 11 passes for 159 yards but no TDs. Even worse, Jefferson’s costly fumble at the pylon cost the Vikings a score. Although, I think Jefferson will be in for a big day if the Chargers cover him like they did against Tyreek Hill on the Dolphins in Week 1.

The Vikings have the benefit of extra rest and playing at home. However, to win this game they will need to win the turnover battle. As cliche as it is, in the NFL the team that takes care of the rock wins the game. One team takes care of the rock, and one team doesn’t, so I am picking the team that does.

Take the LA Chargers (+.5, pick ‘em) in all contests.

*Last week 2-0, season tally 3-1.

Circa Million V

49ERS -10 vs Giants +10.5

VIKINGS -1 vs Chargers +1

BROWNS -3.5 vs Titans +3.5

JAGUARS -9 vs Texans +9

Patriots -2.5 vs JETS +2.5

PACKERS -2 vs Saints +2

DOLPHINS -6.5 vs Broncos +6.5

Bills -6.5 vs COMMANDERS +6.5

LIONS -3 vs Falcons +3

RAVENS -8 vs Colts +8

SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs Panthers +6.5

Cowboys -12.5 vs CARDINALS +12.5

CHIEFS -13 vs Bears +13

RAIDERS -2.5 vs Steelers +2.5

Eagles -5 vs BUCCANEERS +5

BENGALS -3 vs Rams +3

Westgate SuperContest

49ERS -10 vs. Giants +10
VIKINGS Pick'em vs. 4 Chargers Pick'em
BROWNS -3.5 vs. Titans +3.5
JAGUARS -9 vs. Texans +9
Patriots -2.5 vs. JETS +2.5
PACKERS -2 vs. Saints +2
DOLPHINS -6.5 vs. Broncos +6.5
Bills -6.5 vs. COMMANDERS +6.5
LIONS -3 vs. Falcons +3
RAVENS -7.5 vs. Colts +7.5
SEAHAWKS -6 vs. Panthers +6
Cowboys -12.5 vs. CARDINALS +12.5
CHIEFS -13 vs. Bears +13
RAIDERS -2.5 vs. Steelers +2.5
Eagles -5 vs. BUCCANEERS +5
BENGALS -2.5 vs. Rams +2.5

DraftKings

SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) vs. NY Giants (+10.5)
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+6.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos (+6.5)
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. NY JETS (+2.5)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans (+9.5)
DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1.5) New Orleans Saints (+1.5 )
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-.5) vs. LA Chargers (+.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-11.5) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (+11.5)
KC CHIEFS (-12.5) vs. Chicago Bears (+12.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4.5)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) vs. LA Rams (+2.5)

*Home team in Caps, Favorite listed first

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NFL Week 3 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

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