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NFL Week 2 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 9/14/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts

Circa Million V faced more than $1.5 million overlay in the three days leading to the contest sign-up deadline but added 826 entries to bring the overlay to $726,000 and a robust prize pool of $1 million to the winner.

The Westgate SuperContest added 301 entries but has not published an official prize pool tally as of yet. DraftKings added 780 contestants for a prize pool of $711,000 and $142,000 to first place. What makes the DraftKings contest different from Supercontest and Circa Millions is that they utilize a skip week. Think of it as a contest bye-week that requires contestants to skip one week.

Circa Millions also offers a $100K booby-prize to the entry with the worst overall season record. Quarterly prizes are also offered, with the first four weeks of the contest paying $150,000 to the entry with the best record. If two or more entries tie, then the prize is divided up evenly. The Westgate Supercontest offers 12 ways to win during the season, including a nine-week contest and $500 Supercontest reboot for weeks 10-18.

The Supercontest had 46 entries with 5-0 records ATS in week 1. The Circa Millions V had 150 perfect entries, and at DraftKings, 46 entries went 5-0 in Week 1. That said, if you hope to win a quarterly prize, 18-2 will probably get you close. Meanwhile, 138 entries in Circa vie for the Booby prize as they went 0-5.

Last week, I was lucky to get the cover from Philadelphia (-3.5), who had a quick 16-0 lead evaporate in 2 minutes in the first half as Mac Jones and Co. scored two TDs in front of the GOAT, Tom Brady, who was honored at half-time. The sharp money was all over Pittsburgh, and that number dropped to SF -1 at most shops before gametime. Robert Ferringo has San Francisco No. 1 in his power rankings for good reason. The 49ers defense was better than advertised, their fans traveled, and that fall-off from Brock Purdy isn’t happening. This cost us a point in the contests. And after Week 1, we are 1-1 in this space. 

Indianapolis Colts (-1/-1.5) vs Houston Texans

This game opened with the Colts as a 1-point road dog, but that was quickly bet through zero and now the Colts are a 1-road chalk. If you got the +1 on the Colts, you must have been ready to pounce, because that line didn’t last long.

In the three major football contests, that number was hung at -1 in the Supercontest and -1.5 at DraftKings. However, keep in mind that Colt’s QB Richardson injured his knee last week against Jacksonville and is questionable for the game Sunday. If he can’t go, Gardner “The Stashe” Minshew will get the call.

But let’s assume that Richardson is a go on Sunday. Then who will win the battle of rookie quarterbacks? The Colts and Texans are No. 30 and No. 31 in Robert Ferringo’s Week 2 power rankings. Ferringo’s breakdown on both teams are similar in that he points out that starting a rookie quarterback is a terrible idea. My agreement to this point is that backing a team with a rookie quarter-back and rookie head coach is even worse….unless they face each other, as they will on Sunday. Both teams lost SU and ATS in their openers.

Last week, the Indianapolis Colts featured Coach Steichen/QB Richardson combo. And Richardson played like a rookie quarterback in his first NFL game. However, He had to do it without his top-two running backs. Despite this, the Colts actually led the game going into the fourth. Richardson, who led the Colts in rushing, threw a key interception in the fourth quarter to seal the win and cover for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts should have covered the 3.5-points if not won outright.

The Houston Texans also have the rookie quarterback/HC combo in Coach Ryans/QB Stroud. Last week, the Texans played Baltimore tough and trailed 6-7 at the half. Lamar Jackson looked like he hadn’t picked up a football all offseason and didn’t play well overall. While Baltimore covered the spread, it was a sweat until the final whistle.

Texans QB Stroud didn’t play awful, either. However, he was let down by his offensive line (a point that was made in Ferringo’s article) and was sacked five times and lost a crucial fumble.

In the span between 2018-21, the Colts have beaten Houston seven out of eight times. Last year, in their two games, they tied 20-20 and Houston won 32-31 in a crazy game that had contest implications.

Last week, home dogs went 2-4, while home teams went 4-12 ATS! The reason why I like the Colts in this game is that I think the Colts defense will be able to get after Stroud behind a weak offensive line. No doubt this is going to be an ugly game, but I believe that the Colts will be able to hold off the Texans and win with a last second field goal.

Take the Colts -1, -1.5, +1 in all contests.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5, -3) vs New England Patriots

For the second straight week, it will be the Crimson Tide quarterback reunion game at the Razor. Hurts didn’t look that great, and now it’s the Tua-Jones show. I’ll avoid the knee jerk reaction to Week 1 and ask, “Was the Philly Defense that bad or is the Patriots defense that much better than last year? Can anyone keep up with Tyreek Hill? Is Miami’s run defense that porous?”.

The Patriots offense was better, and Mac Jones looked good in the second quarter with two TD tosses in two minutes to pull within two points of the Eagles. While Devante Parker was missed, he was able to find Henry and Thompkins for TDs. While Jones threw for 10 consecutive passes in those two drives, his two rookie guards, Atonio Mafi and Sidy Sow, are going to need to work really hard against Miami if starters Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu don’t play. Good news for the Patriots is that the Miami DL might be the weakest in the AFC. The Chargers’ RBs, totaled 234 yards on the ground, and it seemed like they were 10 yards into Miami’s defense before they could tackle them.

Patriots’ new running back Ezekiel Elliott showed flashes of promise but had a crucial fumble that cost the Patriots big time. It is hard to tell after one week how Elliott will fare. He will undoubtedly play better as he learns O’Briens’ offense and his OL comes together, but for now I’m adopting a wait-and-see approach to the RB.

Meanwhile, every time I looked, Tyreek Hill was 10-yards behind the Chargers’ secondary and was a fantasy player’s wet dream. He caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa went 28-of-45 for 466 yards with three touchdowns and an interception against the not-so-great Chargers secondary.

This doesn’t bode well for the Patriots' secondary, and I’m not the only one giving the edge to Miami. That said, Hurricane Lee is scheduled to hit New England on Saturday morning, and weather could definitely be a factor depending how long it lingers. Right now, the weather forecasters are saying it should be gone by Sunday, but with lingering wind, the Patriots new ginormous screen affecting the wind as it blows into the stadium which could result in a few missed field goals.

Miami is coming off a bruising West Coast road game only to get back on the plane and fly up to New England following Hurricane Lee. Despite the hard travel in two consecutive weeks, Miami always gets up for games against the Patriots. DraftKings and Circa both have Miami at -2.5, but the Supercontest has the game at the key number of 3 (which is good for a half point on the push).

Take Miami -2.5 in DK and Circa but New England +3 in Supercontest. 

Circa Million

(5274 contestants)

Vikings vs Eagles (-6)

Chargers (-3) vs Titans

Packers vs Falcons (-1)

Colts vs Texans (-1) 

Seahawks vs Lions (-4.5)

Bears vs Buccaneers (-2.5)

Raiders vs Bills (-8.5)

Chiefs (-3) vs Jaguars

Ravens vs Bengals (-3,5)

Giants (-4.5) vs Cardinals

49ers (-7.5) vs Rams

Jets vs Cowboys (-8.5)

Commanders vs Broncos (-3.5)

Dolphins (-2.5) vs Patriots

Saints (-3) vs Panthers 

Browns (-2.5) vs Steelers 

Westgate SuperContest Pick’em Lines
(1301 contestants)

EAGLES (-6) vs. Vikings (+6)

Chargers (-3) vs. TITANS (+3)

Packers (-1) vs. FALCONS (+1)

Colts (-1) vs. TEXANS (+1)

LIONS (-5.5) vs. Seahawks (+5.5)

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) vs. Bears (+2.5)

BILLS (-9.5) vs. Raiders (+9.5)

Chiefs (-3.5) vs. JAGUARS (+3.5)

BENGALS (-3.5) vs. Ravens (+3.5)

Giants (-5.5) vs. CARDINALS (+5.5)

49ers (-8) vs. RAMS (+8)

COWBOYS (-9.5) vs. Jets (+9.5)

BRONCOS (-3.5) vs. Commanders (+3.5)

Dolphins (-3) vs. PATRIOTS (+3)

Saints (-3) vs. PANTHERS (+3)

Browns (-2.5) vs. STEELERS (+2.5)

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

DraftKings Pick’em Lines 

(1580 contestants)

Minnesota (+7.5) vs. PHILLADELPHIA (-7.5)

Chicago (+2.5) vs. TAMPA BAY (-2.5)

Green Bay (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA (+1.5)

Indianapolis (-1.5) vs. HOUSTON (+1.5)

Seattle (+5.5) vs. DETROIT (+5.5)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. TENNESSEE (+3.5)

Baltimore (+3.5) vs. CINCINNATI (-3.5)

Las Vegas (+9.5) vs. BUFFALO (-9.5)

Kansas City (-2.5) vs JACKSONVILLE (+2.5)

San Francisco (-.7.5) vs LOS ANGELES RAMS (+7.5)

New York Giants (-5.5) vs ARIZONA (+5.5)

New York Jets (+9.5) vs DALLAS (-9.5)

Washington (+3.5) vs DENVER (-3,5)

Miami (-2.5) vs NEW ENGLAND (+2.5)

New Orleans (-3.5) vs CAROLINA (+3.5)

Cleveland (-2.5) vs PITTSBURGH (+2.5)

*Home Team in CAPS

 

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