NFL Week 17 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

by Christopher G. Shepard - 12/28/2023

Weekly Las Vegas football contest report CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys

Even though I didn’t cover the 2023 Circa Survivor contest, with a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000, I’d be remiss not to mention that after the Patriots upset the Broncos last week, this contest is down to four of 9267 total entries; Circus Master-2, IndianaJet-4, JaxJags-2, LA Joneser-4 remain. And if you haven’t been following this contest, you’ve missed enough drama to fill a Lifetime movie.

The implied value on each remaining ticket is $2,316,750. Each contestant has common teams in Denver, Indianapolis, Minnesota to pick in the last two weeks. Circus Master-2 also has Cleveland and Chicago. The question is will the remaining entries chop half the pot and play for the remaining half of the prize pool or will they be like poker pro Sean “Golden Boy” Perry, who refused the 12-way chop and got knocked out the week backing the Broncos. (Full disclosure my $1000 Survivor entry got knocked out by the Jaguars in week 3).

Saint31-1 has 58.5 points (73.4%) in the Circa Million V, but the lead has shrunk to 1.5-points in front of RDLown, who went 5-0 in week 16 has 57 points at 55-21-4 (72.4%) on the season. There are two entries tied for third, but they are the same contestant, Practice Squad QB-1 and Practice Squad QB-2, who went 4-1 last week and have notched 55 points on the season. Meanwhile, I went 3-2 last week and moved up slightly in the contest to 271st place, but still shy of the top-100 contestants that will cash. This brings my season-long record to 47-30-3 (61%) or 48.5 points on the season and ten points behind the leader. The five consensus picks were 5-0 in Week 16: Cleveland (-2.5) 28.9%, Miami (pk) 25%, Seattle (-2.5) 25%, Atlanta (-1) 24%, Tampa Bay (pk) 22.5%.

The top five consensus picks in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest went 5-0 against the spread in week 16, but the best the co-leaders could manage was Mantistobaggan at 4-1. There is a three-way tie for first; Seattle Paddle, Mantistoboggan, and 2Wong1Wang all have 54.5 points. Nolandalla1vbs has moved into sole possession of fourth with 63 points. One interesting fact is that only two entries in the top-100 went 5-0 in week 16. My picks went 3-2 for a 48-31-1 (60.8%) record on the season. I moved up to 63rd place but will need to finish strong for a min-cash at the very least. The five consensus picks were 5-0 in Week 16: Cleveland (-2.5), Atlanta (-1), Seattle (-2.5), Baltimore (+5.5), Detroit (-3).

Bbissick went 2-3 in week 16 to bring their record to 55-20 (73.3%), but the lead has shrunk to 1-point over PayChex, who went 4-1 and has a 54-21 record (72%) on the season. However, this entry continues to maintain a two-point lead with 53-17 (75.7%) correct. Vgironda dropped to third place after a 2-3 week and their record now sits at 53-22 (70.7%). At this point, any of the top ten could take the $142,200 top prize. Two contestants that are in tenth-place have not utilized their skip week, so they only have five possible points remaining. It will be interesting to see if saving the skip week for the remaining two weeks of the season will help them move up the pay-scale. I went 3-2 and am 44-31 (58%) on the season. The five consensus picks were 4-1 in Week 16: Minnesota (+3.5) 37.71%, Atlanta (-0.5) 37.27%, Cleveland (-2.5) 34.96%, Seattle (-2.5) 24.22%.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Last week I was 1-1 on my picks in all three contests with an aggregate tally of 20-12 (63.3%), 21-11-1 (63%) on the season in this space.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (+3)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7 SU, 10-5 ATS) will host the New Orleans Saints (7-8, 4-10 ATS) as a 3-point home ‘chalk’. For the Buccaneers, the NFC South is theirs for the taking as they look to win their fifth consecutive game. The Buccaneers are coming off of a 30-12 home drubbing of the lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars and will look to move one step closer to a division title.

The Buccaneers surge has been due in a large part to the stellar play of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns (both to WR Mike Evans) against the Jaguars. Mayfield's performance came off a perfect passer rating of 158.3 on the road against Green Bay the previous week.

Now, the resurgent Buccaneers are in position to clinch the NFC South for a third consecutive year. The Buccaneers defense has been playing much better of late. They forced three turnovers by Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence, all of which turned into touchdowns and helped the Buccaneers to jump out to a 30-0 lead. They also knocked out Lawrence with a shoulder injury, which didn’t help the Jaguars offense.

The New Orleans Saints sport a 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS road record in 2023 and lost to the LA Rams last Thursday at SoFi. The Saints are one game behind the Buccaneers in second place despite the loss. A three-way tie for first place in the NFC South is possible if the Saints and Falcons both win. If the Buccaneers win, then they will have a lock on the Division title. And the Buccaneers are gelling at the right time against the Saints for this to happen.

The Saints offense wasn’t particularly effective against the Rams in the first three quarters last week. Going into the fourth quarter, the Saints had dug themselves into a 27-7 hole before quarterback Derek Carr threw two touchdown passes to Juwan Johnson and A.T. Perry and the Saints made a 2-point conversion. The 15-points in the fourth quarter would fall short as the Rams held on for the 22-30 win and cover.

The Saints will be on their second consecutive road game. Here is a betting nugget: this season, the Saints have lost all of their second of two consecutive road games. This season they lost to the Packers 18-17, the Texans 20-13, the Falcons 24-15 and have lost their last four road games with their last road game win at the New England Patriots 34-0.

Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) in all contests

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6/-5) vs. Detroit Lions (+6/+5)

The Detroit Lions (11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS) clinched their first NFC North division title since 1993 and will travel to Arlington, Texas, for a stand-alone Saturday marquee game against the Dallas Cowboys (10-5 Su, 9-6 ATS) for their third-road trip in four games played over the last 20 days.

If there was ever a let-down spot with a side of resting starters, this game for the Detroit Lions qualifies. This game opened with the Cowboys a 5-point favorite but was quickly bet up to 6.5-points at some shops. Making matters even worse for Detroit backers is that Dallas is 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU at home in 2023.

The Cowboys are in second place behind the Eagles, but a win against Detroit would move their record to 11-5 and tie the Lions’ record. Meanwhile, San Francisco will need to win and have Detroit lose to secure the No. 1 seed and the all-important first round bye. The Cowboys have already secured a playoff berth but lost their last two road-games at Buffalo and Miami since they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 on December 10. In the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium, Dallas has proven unbeatable this season. This week Philadelphia clinches the NFL East division title with a win and Dallas loss or tie, or a tie and a Dallas loss.

In last week’s win, Detroit’s’ Jahmyr Gibbs had two rushing touchdowns but the Lions’ defense was the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde story of the day; they forced Vikings back-up quarterback Nick Mullens (22-36, 411, 2 TDs, 4 INTS) to throw four interceptions with a 42.0 QBR. This included Ifeatu Melifonwu’s interception at the 5-yard line with 49 seconds left in the game to preserve the 30-24 win and cover. However, they also allowed Mullins to burn them for 411 yards and two touchdowns.

On offense, Lions quarterback Jared Goff managed to hold onto the ball and passed for 257 yards and one touchdown with a quarterback rating of 68.4. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had 106 receiving yards and a TD in the third quarter. RB David Montgomery, who is only 90 yards shy of a 1000-yard season, averaged 3.2 yards-per-rush and accumulated 55-yards on 17 carries and a touchdown against the Vikings

At Miami, the Cowboys looked good on their opening possession featuring the Dax to CeeDee Lamb. However, the Cowboys got stymied on their first drive due to quarterback Dax Prescott fumble on first and goal from the Buffalo 1 yard line. Eventually Prescott connected with Lamb for a 46-yard TD in the first quarter. Lamb was 6/118 yards on the day, Miami would need a Jason Sanders’ field goal as time expired for a 22-20 win and cover the 1.5-point spread on Christmas Eve.

This week I fully expect the Cowboys to continue their undefeated home-win streak and beat the Lions who will most likely be nursing a division clinching hangover and definitely rest their starters no matter what head coach Dan Campell says.

Take the Dallas Cowboys (-6, -5) in all contests.

CIRCA Million V
BROWNS (-7.5) vs. Jets (+7.5)
COWBOYS (-5) vs. Lions (+5)
BILLS (-13) vs. Patriots (+13)
49ers (-13) vs. COMMANDERS (+13)
EAGLES (-10.5) vs. Cardinals (+10.5)
RAVENS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins (+3.5)
Rams (-5.5) vs. GIANTS (+5.5)
JAGUARS (-6.5) vs. Panthers (+6.5)
BUCCANEERS (-2.5) vs. Saints (+2.5)
COLTS (-3.5) vs. Raiders (+3.5)
BEARS (-3) vs. Falcons (+3)
TEXANS (-3.5) vs. Titans (+3.5)
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh (+3.5)
CHIEFS (-7) vs. Bengals (+7)
BRONCOS (-3.5) vs. Chargers (+3.5)
VIKINGS (-2) vs. Green Bay (+2)

Westgate Resorts SuperContest
BROWNS vs. Jets (+7.5)
COWBOYS vs. Lions (+6)
BILLS vs. Patriots (+12)
49ers vs. COMMANDERS (+12.5)
EAGLES vs. Cardinals (+10.5)
RAVENS vs. Dolphins (+3.5)
Rams vs. GIANTS (+4.5)
JAGUARS vs. Panthers (+6.5)
BUCCANEERS vs. Saints (+3)
COLTS vs. Raiders (+3.5)
BEARS vs. Falcons (+3)
TEXANS vs. Titans (+4.5)
SEAHAWKS vs. Pittsburgh (+3.5)
CHIEFS vs. Bengals (+7)
BRONCOS vs. Chargers (+3)
VIKINGS vs. Green Bay (+2)

DraftKings Main Event Pick ‘em
CLEVELAND (-7.5) vs. NY Jets
DALLAS (-6.5) vs. Detroit
BUFFALO (-12.5) vs. New England
San Francisco (-13.5) vs. WASHINGTON
PHILADELPHIA (-10.5) vs. Arizona
BALTIMORE (-3.5) vs. Miami
LA Rams (-6.5) vs. NY GIANTS
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) vs. Carolina
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) vs. Saints
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas
CHICAGO (-2.5) vs. Atlanta
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. Cincinnatti
DENVER (-5.5) vs. LA Chargers
MINNESOTA (-1.5) vs. Green Bay

*Favorite Listed First - Home Team in CAPS

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NFL Week 17 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report

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